Early August this year, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) received information that Islamic State (IS)-linked terrorists had plotted to attack a “Crusader City” alongside business centres and some “Crusader Churches” in the Northern Luzon, Philippines. This was based on a genuine “alert memo” received by the Northern Luzon Command. Local government units from neighbouring cities didn’t take the memo lightly either, as their law enforcement units had beefed up security around their churches and tourist areas. It appeared, however, that Sundays remained packed with devotees regardless of the reported terrorist threat. To the relief of many, the military, later on, said the threats were “negative” following their verification.

Crusader city is a term by IS that refers to a “target area” that ignites a “Bandar Crusade” or “a war between Muslims and Christians,” while crusader church refers to all historic Catholic Churches, according to the memo. The target churches are in Vigan City, Laoag City, Tuguegarao City, and Manaoag town in Pangasinan. These places are famous tourist destinations because of their historic and religious landmarks, pristine beaches, as well as Spanish architecture converted into commercial shops.

Based on the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2019  by the Institute of Economics & Peace, the Philippines ranked nine out of 10 countries most impacted by terrorism. In 2018, terror-related deaths and terror-related incidents declined by nine per cent resulting to 297 deaths and by 13 per cent from 486 to 424 incidents, respectively. Regardless of the decline, it is the only country in Southeast Asia included in the 10 countries most impacted by terrorism.

The GTI said terrorist activity had been dominated by the communist organization, New People’s Army (NPA), which has been in a long-standing conflict with the Philippine government for five decades now. A separatist group in the Southern Philippines known as the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM) was considered the second deadliest group. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant meanwhile was third, through its affiliates that pledged allegiance to them, namely the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), Maute group, and BIFM. Targets of attacks were varied such as the government, private citizens and property, police and military, and others.

“In the Philippines, we have seen the entire spectrum of targets, from cathedrals to checkpoints, to tourist venues,” said security analyst and author Dr Zachary Abuza, adding that “unlike in Indonesia [where] pro-ISIS groups have been focusing on targeting security forces, largely staying away from tourist venues since 2017.” But in the latest GTI, there was a 45 per cent increase in attacks against government targets between 2017 and 2018 that led to 139 deaths, largely brought by NPA attacks.

A professor at the National War College in Washington D.C. focusing on Southeast Asian politics and security, Dr Abuza said terrorist groups utilize attacks to demonstrate that they remain relevant, to mobilize their supporters, and to show that they can attack the state at will. Adding that “terrorism and asymmetric warfare are the only means for a substrate actor to challenge a state, even a relatively weak state like the Philippines.”

Unfortunately, the business community is one sector of the society that suffers significant losses during attacks on either historic, religious, or tourist venues. “It scares people, especially those in the business sector. It drives away clients. It drives away visitors. It drives away capital investment in the country,” said Dr Eduardo Fulgencio, chairman emeritus of the Philippine Society for Industrial Security (PSIS).

But he said the impact of terrorism is far more visible in places infested by terrorists and other criminal elements such as Sulu, Maguindanao, and Tawi-Tawi in Mindanao. “The business is normally down there. But you cannot tell people to get away because they need the business,” he also said. “No matter how much they are infested by terrorists, rebels, or criminal elements, they will still continue the business. The only thing they do is strengthen security.”

Meanwhile, places like Cagayan de Oro, Davao, Camiguin, or Surigao are “not really very much bothered by the threats. Besides they are well protected by the military and the police and are protecting themselves through private security,” said Dr Fulgencio, who is a Certified Security Professional and Certified Protection Professional handling the physical security of 50 buildings.

In some cases, foreign governments also issue travel advisories warning their nationals from setting foot on particular regions in the Philippines, thus affecting tourism-related businesses for instance.

Suicide Bombing

Of all the possible terror attacks, Dr Fulgencio considered suicide bombing as “much more fearful because it’s definitely hard to avoid.“ He explained that some people could just mingle with the crowd, set up a bomb in his body that would explode upon detonation, and instantly kill the people around him. “So that is really very difficult to detect,” he admitted.

The recent confirmation of the first Filipino suicide bomber on Philippine soil makes the act even more dreadful for many people. Previously, suicide attacks in the country were only attributed to foreign militants, but not until a 23-year-old Filipino named Norman Lasuca changed that.

Philippine law enforcement authorities confirmed on July 10 this year that Lasuca was indeed a Filipino and was one of the two terrorists who perpetrated the twin bombings on June 28 in Indanan, Sulu. His DNA sample had a 99.99% probability match with the samples taken from his mother and brother, according to various reports.

Lasuca had proven that Filipino culture is no longer a deterrent to convert to radical beliefs such as suicide attacks, long seen as an improbability by many people. “Before, no one would think that Filipinos could be that radicalized to be capable of detonating himself,” said AFP spokesperson Marine Brig. Gen. Edgard Arevalo.

Dr Abuza thinks it was just a matter of time, however. “Everyone said the same about Indonesians and Malaysians, though for the latter only in Iraq and Syria. I think a more appropriate question is why it took so long for a Filipino or Filipina to become a suicide bomber,” he said. “There’s no shortage of terrorism in the country and the various terrorist organizations have been very open to influence from transnational jihadist organizations. The genie is out of the bottle now.”

According to Brig. Gen. Arevalo, such confirmation has indeed altered the security climate in the Philippines. “This recent development whereby a Filipino perpetrated a suicide bombing mission may inspire other Filipino extremists to go down that path since a fellow has done so,” he said. Nevertheless, he dismissed considering it simply a “test case” toward far bigger attacks. “[It is] a distinct and singular act meant to wreak death, injury, or havoc,” he added.

Kidnap for ransom

Dr Abuza meanwhile identified kidnap-for-ransom (KFR) activities as “a huge problem” in the country though there’s nowhere else in the region, except in Sabah, Malaysia emanating from the Philippines. According to the Philippine National Police Anti-Kidnapping Group, there was a three per cent increase in kidnapping cases in the country in 2018. Forty-two Filipinos and 27 foreigners were KFR victims. Of the foreigners, 17 are Chinese, four Indonesians, two Indians, and one each of Taiwanese, Japanese, Nigerian, and Malaysian.  Thirty-eight of the victims in Mindanao were kidnapped by the ASG and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters. Luzon had 30 KFR cases and Visayas had one.

Just recently, a British businessman and his Filipina wife had been rescued from the ASG after nearly two months of captivity, as reported by various local media outlets. Several gunmen held Allan and Wilma Hyrons at gunpoint on the night of October 4 at their Hyrons Beach Resort in Tukuran, Zamboanga del Sur. Philippine troops immediately pursued search-and-rescue operations, while the Zamboanga del Sur provincial government set a Php1 million reward for any possible information leading to the rescue of the couple and arrest of the kidnappers. The military were in hot pursuit operations of the IS-linked militants when they had rescued the couple on November 25 in Parang, Sulu.

Pressing challenges

Brig. Gen. Arevalo cited the three most pressing challenges for them in their fight against terrorism. First is the lack of active involvement among the people in the community, especially before the Marawi siege. Second, are the vast and porous borders of the country. Third is the so-called weak anti-terrorism law or the Human Security Act of 2007 that “clips and delimits the powers of the state forces” to fight terrorism. An amendment to the Act has been proposed and now undergoing proceedings. Other concerns such as training, capabilities, and equipment are meanwhile being addressed by the government, he said.

On the other hand, the GTI report enumerated the lack of capacity, lack of coordination, and also geographical challenges as hindrances to the government’s response to terrorist threats.

As for Dr Abuza, the greatest challenge in the Philippines to defeat the ASG and the other terrorist organizations that pledged allegiance to ISIS is “corruption within the security forces” and the realization that defeating these terrorists would dry up massive amounts of foreign assistance the government receives, hence creating a “moral hazard.” He added: “On top of that are just very porous borders.”

He was rather divided when asked if he believes that ISIS is getting a stronger hold in the Southeast Asian region. “There are plenty of groups in the region who declared allegiance to IS. And with the collapse of the caliphate in Syria, ISIS has adopted a global insurgency model, which should raise the importance of SE Asia to them,” Dr Abuza said. “However, there is no centralized command and control. There is a large constellation of groups who don’t coordinate with one another very much.”

New strategies

Brig. Gen. Arevalo said they have pursued a Program on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (PCVE), apart from pursuing military operations against the militants. Based on House Bill 04585, under which the PCVE was included, the program aims to prevent and counter violent extremism by addressing the legal status and security of persons previously engaged in violent extremism as well as by providing economic, social, and psychological rehabilitation support, and long-term interventions for them and their families.

Add to that is the first-ever counter-terrorism training centre in the country to be constructed before the end of the year at Camp General Mariano Castaneda in Silang, Cavite. The United States Embassy has secured Php520 million or approximately US$10 million to build and run the said centre together with the PNP, which will “provide counter-terrorism training for law enforcement units and personnel from the Philippines and regional partner nations in Southeast Asia.” The centre is said to be the first of its kind in the Southeast Asian region.

But Dr Abuza called it “nonsense.” He said Indonesia’s Jakarta Center for Law Enforcement Cooperation has been operating for years and has played a critical role in training the region’s counter-terrorism forces. “The new centre in the Philippines is simply the US throwing more money at the Philippines. It will have no positive impact,” he said.

Brig. Gen. Arevalo, however, couldn’t provide any comment yet when asked further about the said training centre and possible changes afoot. But as for the business community, he advised that all parties must collaborate, cooperate, and coordinate with government security forces. “Terrorism is both global and national concerns and defeating it or insulating the communities from its deadly reach is everybody’s concern,” he stressed.

Dr Fulgencio agreed that interfacing with government security forces is needed. “Networking with government and private security is very important for securing an establishment especially in business. Because no matter what happens you still go to the police, to the military for help. It’s not just automatic for us. It’s a must,” he said. Good thing many businesses in the Philippines now recognize the emerging terrorist threats, he further said. “Because if they don’t recognize it, how can they prepare, prevent, and reduce the threat?” he added. After all, the adage “better safe than sorry” holds weight now more than ever in these ever-changing times.

L'articolo Emerging Terrorist Threats Change Security Landscape in the Philippines proviene da InsideOver.

ASEAN is one of the few successful examples of a trade bloc in an emerging region. The latest ASEAN business and its parent summit produced many interesting resolutions and outcomes. How will they influence the trade blocs and Southeast Asia’s future?

The ASEAN 2019 Business and Investment Summit crystallized the trade blocs joint political positions. It also brought new views on business into light. The summit which ran from 2nd to 3rd of November ended on a largely positive note.

The most important joint political statements reaffirmed were the movement to a unified position on the South China Sea, and greater digital connectivity.

A common theme in the summit was how innovative businesses and models should be supported.

Before the summit began, the main goals were set as the movement into the digital age, and human development and empowerment.

From a social standpoint, activist groups also influenced the goals and discussions of the summit. Before the summit, Rohingya supporters sent demands to the leaders of ASEAN member countries. Discussion panels about human rights were a part of the summit.

The main outcomes of the summit have been the development of the RCEP agreement, a new direction for intra-bloc relations, and business development in SE Asian countries.

India’s exit from the RCEP is not necessarily a failing on the part of the ASEAN members or the potential members of the RCEP agreement.

Demolishing trade barriers has helped many of the world’s economies achieve massive growth in GDP, trade diversification, and the wealth of residents. Yet, even a good solution may not be the exact fit for a certain economy.

India is still a developing economy and not a mature one. India’s trade balance has been negative and continued to decrease and now for the past 15 years, lowering import barriers for the RCEP would have compounded this negative balance of trade tendency for India.

Intra-bloc relations have deepened because of the 2019 summit. Multiple leaders urged to increase the bloc’s unity on foreign problems.

Written resolutions do not always turn into active projects. Yet, the united front on digital economy and empowerment, is a strong indicator of declarations becoming actions.

Business and investment talks at the summit show that a new age of business is coming to ASEAN. Multiple calls from some of the members of the ASEAN for a move to business 4.0 (a reference to the fourth industrial revolution) show that the bloc has chosen to rapidly innovate, instead of going through the usual course of development.

From a geographical standpoint, the push for innovative businesses and business models could be the answer to the trade bloc’s members’ reliance on agricultural commodities and goods exports. Innovative digital businesses are less dependent on location and aren’t dependent on worldwide commodity price fluctuations. Increasing the share of digital business could create a strong and stable business ecosystem in the ASEAN.

The 2019 summit will be an influential one. The trade bloc members will feel the impact from its outcomes both directly, and indirectly. SE Asia and the whole of Asia will become different because of the outcomes of the ASEAN summit, and the related Business and Investment summit.

India pulling out of the RCEP agreement will undermine its benefits. Nevertheless, the majority of the potential signatories of it shouldn’t find more drawbacks than benefits for them individually.

The RCEP centres around opening up trade barriers, through the lowering of tariffs and a phaseout of them. Out of all potential signatory countries, only Malaysia and Thailand face some of the same concerns that caused India to decide to not pursue the signing of the agreement. A significant share of exports of both Thailand and Malaysia belongs to machines and chemical products – similar to India. Being a signatory of the RCEP would mean an increased risk of a potential decline in these exporting industries. That’s the reason why India’s Mr Modi took the step to pull India out of the negotiations

Malaysia and Thailand are unlikely to pull out. Increasing trade liberalisation in the region would benefit these already strong exporting economies. Geopolitical alliances and allies also could have played a part in India’s decision to withdraw. The unending land territorial disputes with China, in the face of a phaseout of trade barriers to Chinese goods, would have likely not been a popular decision with some voters. That’s not the case with Malaysia and Thailand, whose disagreements with China aren’t as complex as India’s.

Major geopolitical trends in Asia will be affected by the outcomes of the ASEAN 2019 business summit.

A theme of discussions and resolutions in the Business and Investment summit was the digital age and innovative businesses. Members of the summit agreed that increasing cooperation is needed. Prime Minister of Malaysia, Mr Mahathir, said that “[…] we need to overcome the separation of the members of the ASEAN countries”.

Association of South East Asian Nations, from its founding, has laid foundations to a stronger South East Asia. Increasing development of the region through cooperation should spur states in other regions of Asia. Whether increasing digitalisation of the region and its businesses will contribute to the whole continent’s state, or just the region’s, remains to be seen.

ASEAN previously released an indirect resolution on its stance about the South China Sea islands, and the wider Pacific Ocean territory (The ASEAN outlook on the Indo-Pacific). The resolution called for peaceful dispute resolution. The division of Asian countries on this issue will decline, as the parent event of the Business and Investment Summit, the ASEAN summit, ended with progress made on the code of conduct agreement for the South China Sea.

Asia, as a region, is opening up to free trade with other trade blocks or countries. The recent free trade agreements between the European Union and Japan, Republic of Korea, and Singapore have facilitated trade between mostly East Asian countries, and the 2nd largest economy in the world.

As every trend, it won’t last forever. More and more Asian, and particularly East and South-East Asian economies will become mature ones in the next few decades (Republic of Korea, Singapore). The terms of previously signed free trade deals may then no longer suit the needs of these countries.

Each trade deal is also causing increasing discussions in the continent about the benefits of trade agreements. The discussions have led to increasing pressure on local politicians for talks and signing of free trade agreements (India is the clearest example).

Along with corruption issues (Asia Pacific region received an average score of 44 in the 2018 edition of CPI) and economic inequality in the region, the pressure could lead new political parties into power.

The wider continental trend is to increase free trade and to lower tariffs on foreign products. It is a way of gaining access to lucrative markets. The doubts about intra-regional trade could lead to a diverging consensus on trade in the continent. Consequently, declining opportunities for access to lucrative markets.

Countries, and their allies, which have already signed agreements with trade partners, could slow down the phaseout of tariffs. Increasing doubts about the benefits of FTAs by countries like India have a strong possibility to become a wider anti-free trade trend.

Diverging opinions on wider regional trends are an inevitable consequence of meetings where countries with very different economies meet. South and South East Asian nations members range from island to continental states, and from those relying on agricultural exports to full services economies.

A way to increase cooperation could be information exchange. H. Milner in International Theories of Cooperation Among Nations, argues that even critics of the parent theory, agree that greater information sharing and communication, should strengthen cooperation between governments. The greater cooperation will be needed, as in the next decade, some of these nations will have to deal with major territorial and economic decisions (South China Sea islands, the RCEP).

ASEAN is not only its trade component, it is also a fruitful political forum which facilitates development through cooperation. From the outcomes of the summit, the region’s future will take an increasing turn towards digitalisation. However, due to many differences between the members, joint actions could meet resistance.

L'articolo What Does the ASEAN Business Summit Mean for the Region’s Future? proviene da InsideOver.