The Scots are a stoic bunch. On a cold, wet and windy Saturday in January, when only dogs and their owners braved the elements, an estimated 80,000 of them marched through the sodden streets of Glasgow to demand Scottish independence. They came in good voice and brought all their coloured flags, the red and yellow of Catalonia, the blue and white of the Scottish saltire.

When asked, they said remarkably similar things. Why are you marching? ‘Because we voted to stay in Europe (by 62 per cent to 38 per cent) and we are being hauled out against our will. We voted overwhelmingly for the Scottish National Party (SNP) at the general election – the SNP won 48 of the 59 seats available in Scotland – but we, nevertheless, have a Conservative government ruling over us in London.’

John a former coal miner from Glasgow revealed he had once been a staunch supporter of the Labour Party.

“Things have changed now,” He told InsideOver. “I feel that now is the time for independence for Scotland. We are being dragged down a road that we don’t want to go by Westminster. We vote time and again for our own MP’s and we end up with a foreign country ruling us.”

The foreign country in question? England, Wales and Northern Ireland collectively known (with Scotland) as the United Kingdom.

“Independence for Scotland,” John continued. “Means that we are going to… vote in our own government, we can have a Labour government…Conservative government, you can have Liberals…whoever you like. Independence doesn’t mean that Scotland is going to be ruled by the SNP, people must realise this. If we come out with a strong Labour party who have policies and the vision to take Scotland along people would go with that.”

John is not alone in his disaffection with the Scottish Labour Party. As recently as the 2010 UK general election, the party had secured 41 of the 59 Scottish seats available. By 2019 that majority had been reduced to one seat. In nine years they had lost a remarkable 40 seats.

On the day of the march their leader Richard Leonard was trying to steer his party in the direction of a spring conference to, at least, consider and discuss the issue of a second referendum on Scottish independence.
His efforts to find a middle road, however, ended in humiliating defeat.

The Scottish Labour Party, by their actions, seem to want to drive a wedge between themselves and the contemporary sentiments of increasingly large swathes of the Scottish population.

Scottish Labour’s refusal to acknowledge the complexities of Scotland’s political landscape, the debate around independence, and the dissonance between what the Scots’ vote for and what is forced upon them seems shortsighted. It leaves the SNP looking as if they are the only political grouping in Scotland remotely interested in the concerns of the majority of Scottish people and they have sought to capitalise on that.

But the political situation in Scotland is far from simple.

Despite the upbeat atmosphere I couldn’t help but think the weather was symbolic. This was more of a damp, good-spirited trudge than a full-blooded revolution.

Perhaps, it mirrors the near 50/50 split in Scotland between those who demand independence, and certainly a second referendum on the issue, and those who are not so sure and who would – for now – remain as part of the United Kingdom.

Similarly, while the SNP claimed 81 per cent of the seats available, they only polled 45 per cent of the total Scottish vote. The same as they claimed in the referendum for Scottish independence of September 2014.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative government, now firmly installed in parliament with an 80 seat majority following the December 2019 election, has sent a letter to SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon telling her there would be NO second referendum on independence.

Johnston suggested the SNP carry out the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland who voted to remain in the UK in September 2014, and concentrate on running the country properly. He also reminded the SNP that they agreed, at the time, that this would be a once in a generation referendum.

Sturgeon countered by saying that the situation north of the border had changed significantly in the intervening five years plus. So much to warrant indyref2. She believed that Johnston was now ‘denying’ Scotland a democratic say in its future.

Frustrated by this turn of events one Scottish National Party MP Angus MacNeil has suggested that Holyrood organise its own, what he termed as a “legal referendum”. He then suggested that, rather than take the Catalonia go-it-alone route, the Scottish parliament should then wait and see if Westminster challenged the concept of a second referendum in the courts. Mr MacNeil also suggested making the 2021 Holyrood elections a mandate for indyref2.

But, many have been critical of the SNP’s handling of their internal policies, especially concerning Scottish education and health. Many have criticised them for being singularly obsessed with independence to the detriment of the country’s domestic situation.

Questions have also been raised on the nature of the Scottish political landscape given independence. Would there be a bicameral democratic infrastructure? I have asked the nationalists and have still to receive a definitive answer. Some have also asked what currency would be used, and how would all the attendant dangers of launching Scottish money be avoided (sufficient reserves and so on)? Yet others have been alarmed by and questioned the present £12.5 billion deficit, seven per cent of GDP – six times the level in the rest of the UK – which would, on current rules, and ironically, prevent an independent Scotland from re-entering the European Union.

Key moments will come when the UK finally leaves the European Union and the May 2021 elections to the devolved parliament in Edinburgh.

It would be hard to deny the waves of change battering the shoreline of Scotland. There is unrest, a Scottish Labour Party lost in its march to oblivion, and the SNP, whose nationalist ideology is not universally popular, but present the only glimmer of light disenchanted Scots can gather around.

But it also seems certain that Johnson and his government will not entertain a second referendum in this government’s lifetime, and he, given his 80 seat majority, could be in power for a long time.

L'articolo London Says No To Second Scottish Independence Referendum proviene da InsideOver.

“It doesn’t matter what Scotland votes,” the woman calls out and begins to walk away before returning. “We never get what we vote for.”

Speaking to voters, cabinet ministers and political commentators, barely a few days away from the United Kingdom (UK) general election scheduled for December 12, there are signs that the Scots are growing impatient with the Westminster parliament.

The 50-something female sounds angry. I call after her.

“What’s your name?” “Carole” She calls over her shoulder and hurries off into the crowd.

It seems ironic. In the run-up to the referendum on Scottish Independence, September 18 2014, the Scots were told that a vote to leave the United Kingdom would mean an independent Scotland leaving the European Union (EU). Subsequently, the Scottish people voted to stay in the UK.

Fast forward to Thursday, June 23 2016, and while Scotland voted by 62 per cent to 38 per cent to remain in Europe, the UK as a whole voted 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent to leave.

Fast forward three years and Boris Johnston, unable to keep his promise of making Brexit happen on October 31, 2019, or to “die in a ditch”, has taken the less dramatic action and called a UK general election.

But amid the turmoil of Britain’s struggle to free itself from the EU, something has changed north of the border. This might be a ‘general election’ but many Scots now see next Thursday’s vote as a marker for Scottish independence, or, at the very least, a call for a second referendum on the issue.

Picking up on the mood, Michael Russell, Scottish National Party (SNP) cabinet minister for government business and constitutional relations told InsideOver:

“The SNP’s clear message, which respects Scottish voters right to choose their future, stands in stark contrast to the approach to Scotland by the UK parties who have imposed austerity and who want to impose Brexit. That message is increasingly attractive to those of all political persuasions.”

So, is there a group of Scottish voters who would – normally – not be inclined to vote for the SNP but who are now willing to use them as a vehicle to achieve Scottish independence? A grouping who favour independence but who are not necessarily impressed by the nationalists’ ideology?

Of course, we will only discover how big this grouping might be after the election, but feelings are strong.

“Voting for an independent Scotland does not mean you need to vote for the SNP after the general election,” Ross John from Ayr, a small town of around 50,000 in southwest Scotland, said. “Once independent, the political landscape of Scotland will change. Other parties may evolve. But one thing is certain we will have parties that will act for the people of Scotland.”

Another man stated that independence was ‘essential’. He claimed to be a former Labour Party supporter prepared to vote SNP as a means of gaining self-determination.

But nothing is simple. Some of those who are now prepared to vote for the SNP, also admitted they were not impressed by the nationalists’ record in office. They were unhappy with a series of scandals that have rocked the party, as well as their performance on health and education. They also acknowledge that independence would bring its difficulties, and recognise that Scotland has a seven per cent financial deficit which would – ironically – prevent an independent Scotland from re-entering the EU until it was below three per cent.

Some counter this by saying that it would be better for Scotland to mess things up on their own, rather than let London do it for them.

“People who have voted Tories, Lib Dems or Labour all their lives,” Manny Singh, Director of Operations for the Scottish Independence Movement and a director with the pro-independence All Under One Banner, told me. “May switch over to the SNP because they have seen the shambles at Westminster, [and] …parties… not delivering what they promised.”

It now seems possible that Scots, in increasing numbers, might be prepared to vote for the nationalists to secure independence from a system that is, as they perceive it, not working for them.

“Support for independence has gone up according to all the polls conducted this year,” John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Glasgow, and one of the UK’s top psephologists and political commentators confirmed. “On average…support for the SNP is at 49 [per cent] as opposed to the 45 [per cent]…in the polls last year.”

But, will it be enough? Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her government are seeking a mandate from the Scottish electorate at the election, to enable the SNP to make a case for a second referendum on independence (indyref2).

Meanwhile, her government published a referendum framework bill, called Referendums (Scotland) Bill, in May 2019, to prepare for a second vote on the issue.

But even if the whole of Scotland voted SNP on December 12, there is still no guarantee that whoever is in power in Westminster on Friday, December 13 will sanction a second referendum on Scottish Independence.

What happens after the general election will depend on how much support the SNP can muster from its own and from those of a different political hue willing, temporarily (as many of them claim), to give them their vote.

A situation muddied by the divisions around Brexit. John Curtice is quick to point out that the SNP had leaked support from a section of leavers who were once happy to support them.

“Support for the SNP back in 2015,” He explained. “Was equally high among Europhiles and Eurosceptics. That is no longer the case. SNP support is about 50 per cent among Remainers, 25 per cent among Leavers. That’s a change. That happened in 2017 and that’s just something the SNP have to live with. So, the SNP over the broad run since have lost ground among Eurosceptics. But…there has been a lot of people switching sides. It looks as though it has resorted to an increase in support for yes [to independence].”

In many ways and for many reasons this general election will be one of Britain’s most historic. North and south of the border, of course, it is all about independence, from the European Union and, potentially, from the United Kingdom.

Who can tell how it will unravel. Who will be in power post-December 12, and how much of the Scottish electorate will back the SNP? One thing is certain, there are not many sleeps now until we find out.

L'articolo Will The UK General Election Prompt A Second Referendum On Scottish Independence? proviene da InsideOver.

Although Labour and the Scottish National Party (SNP) are both interested in destroying the current Tory government and preventing a no-deal Brexit, it seems that Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell is not willing to do that at the expense of forming a ‘progressive alliance’ with Nicola Sturgeon. The Daily Express reports on Rebecca Long-Bailey’s recent Sky News interview that revealed her party believes a regime consisting of anti-no deal MPs would give the Prime Minister a ‘get out of jail free card.’ Instead, Labour is calling for a general election to ensure they win a majority.

This represents a substantial defeat for Scotland’s First Minister. The Scotsman states that Sturgeon believes Labour is a ‘stumbling block’ to forming a ‘progressive alliance’ to defeat the Conservatives. McDonnell dashed her hopes by describing the SNP as ‘Tories’, claiming that her party is not socialist enough for them to form an alliance with. Nonetheless, he now supports a second Scottish referendum. The First Minister has welcomed the Shadow Chancellor’s call to allow the Scottish Parliament, not Westminster, to decide whether to hold a second vote. But the nationalists’ interpretation of ‘freedom’ is inconsistent with the SNP’s founding vision of true Scottish independence.

Instead of campaigning to ensure Scotland becomes a sovereign nation, the SNP want to reduce this proud country to a satellite EU state. Rather than allow Westminster to directly rule them, they want to transfer that responsibility to Brussels. There is no guarantee an independent Scotland would be allowed to join the EU either. Spain oppose the SNP’s bid for EU membership because if they voted for it, it would send a message to Catalonia that they can liberate themselves from Madrid and rejoin the EU as a sovereign state.

In the 1970s, being an SNP member meant you believed in total independence. During the 1975 referendum on the UK’s Common Market membership, the nationalists campaigned against this country’s EEC status because they believed this body was eroding Britain’s sovereignty. When Sturgeon joined this party in the 1980s, opposition to EEC membership remained the SNP’s official policy on this matter. But now they have reversed their position.This is why Alex Neil deserves respect as one of the few nationalist MSPs who remained true to the principles espoused by his party since the 1975 referendum. He is right to highlight that leaving the UK to join the EU will not result in proper sovereignty.

The European Journal of Political Economy found that the driving force behind Vote Leave’s 2016 victory was that 90 per cent of over-65s voted in the referendum, and many of them remember life before Britain joined the EEC and felt like the EU was different to the Common Market they opted for during the 1975 vote. It has become apparent since then that even before the EU’s existence, membership of its precursor body, the EEC, was always going to result in an eradication of national sovereignty.

In the case of Costa v ENEL, which involved an Italian citizen challenging his government’s decision to nationalise an electricity company, the European Court of Justice confirmed that European law had supremacy over national law at all times. Therefore, the SNP are not interested in true Scottish independence if they are willing to join an organisation that would erode their country’s newfound freedom from day one.

The Conservative Government has made it clear a second independence vote won’t happen. As long as there is little prospect of a Corbyn-led administration, the SNP Leader won’t see her wishes comes true, especially if the Tories win a majority once this country has left the EU. Sturgeon is becoming increasingly desperate to achieve Scottish independence at any cost. This is why she has betrayed her beliefs by expressing her desire to establish an alliance with a unionist party like Labour to bring down a Tory government and meddle in British affairs, even though her party was founded to take Scotland out of Westminster’s politics altogether.

The First Minister has contradicted her party’s founding principles by transforming the SNP into a Europhile party, using Brexit as an opportunity to form a ‘progressive alliance’ with a party that fundamentally opposes what the nationalists stands for. It’s not Scottish freedom this woman is interested in; just power at any cost.

L'articolo Sturgeon Isn’t Interested in Scottish Independence, Just Power proviene da InsideOver.

On a sunny afternoon in the seaside town of Ayr, 37 miles from Glasgow, Scotland, an estimated 13,000 marched to demand independence from the United Kingdom.

The march was the fourth in a series of eight organised by Scottish pro-independence movement All Under One Banner. The last in the sequence will take place in Edinburgh, the Scottish capital, on Saturday, October 5th. All Under One Banner (AUOB) were formed by Neil McKay on October 12, 2014, following the referendum of September 18, 2014 when Scotland voted by 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent to stay in the United Kingdom.

McKay wanted to harness the energy of the ‘Yes’ campaign and to have a movement: ‘staging public processions for independence at regular intervals until Scotland is ‘free’.’ The mission of AUOB then is to host marches and rallies for Scottish independence, marching All Under One Banner; open to everyone who desires an independent Scotland.

The chief organiser of AUOB is Manny Singh, a man who describes himself as ‘King of the North’ on his Facebook page. At a march in Glasgow on May 4, the council authorities asked Singh and AUOB to alter their route. It was a last minute request which was ignored by the movement who marched as planned. Subsequently, Singh was reported to the police and procurator fiscal.

But AUOB are not the only group pushing for Scottish independence. “We differ from All Under One Banner,” Scott McMurray a spokesperson for Saltires For Independence told me “We are a small group whose aim is to showcase the photographs, videos and messages from the participants of any independence event. All Under One Banner are organisers of events and marches across Scotland. However, we aim to ensure that those who cannot attend these events still have a means to express their interest in independence by flying their Saltires and posting their photographs to the page.”

There is an odd feeling of near euphoria as people file past. The atmosphere is good natured and reminds one of a football cup final with all the colours and excitement of opposing fans supporting their respective teams. But here there is only one ‘team’, only one goal that unites the marchers: Scottish independence.

A sea of blue is curiously interspersed with the red and yellow stripes of Catalonia. The marchers for Scottish independence obviously feel some affinity for their separatist brotherhood. The next AUOB march will take place in Campelltown on July 27, and there is a growing feeling among the crowd that a second independence referendum will definitely take place.

“In terms of IndyRef2,” Scott McMurray of Saltires For Independence added, “we are now more confident than ever that a second independence referendum would see a majority vote in favour of a split with the UK.” McMurray was also aware that the UK government in Westminster would have to agree to such an action. “This will mean,” he started up again, “that the Scottish electorate need to continue to be proactively voting for pro-independence parties at Westminster and Scottish Parliament levels. The pressure will then be on the politicians to accept the will of the Scottish people.”

There does seem to be a resurgence of an independent sentiment in Scotland, spurred on by Brexit and the possibility of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. “Indy ref 2 will happen,” Mike Blackshaw of Edinburgh Yes Hub said with a degree of certainty. He had travelled from the capital, 80 miles away, by bus, though there were many more from further afield. InsideOver spoke to a man from Carmarthenshire, Wales, and someone told us of people who had travelled from Austria. There was – strangely – the Saltire flown behind a motorcycle with a Swiss number plate and the driver dressed as a Highlander.

It would be easy to get carried away with the near carnival atmosphere of the afternoon. Lest we forget, it should be mentioned there are counter arguments to independence. Some suggest, for instance, that the economy could be a major stumbling block to Scottish self-determination. A new currency in an independent Scotland would have to compete against stronger currencies, including Sterling. Scottish bonds, an unknown quantity in an independent era will be high risk, initially at least, and the cost of borrowing high. How much would a welfare state cost? An army? A civil service? And who would pay for it all? But, for now, looking around, it would be difficult to be the one to say that to them. Not today anyway.

L'articolo Scots March for Independence and Another Chance of a Referendum proviene da InsideOver.

L'articolo Scots march for Independence proviene da InsideOver.