The focus has come on China after reports emerged about North Korea all set to conduct its 7th nuclear test. China which has been maintaining friendly terms and conditions with North Korea for over 60 years, kept a close watch on its friendly country especially after South Korean spy agency reported that North Korea may conduct a 7th nuclear test.

But foreign affairs experts on China affairs have doubts over China’s intention to takeany stand against DPRK because of the past experience. According to them, China had voiced opposition to North Korea’s test of a new ballistic missile in February 2017 more than 24 hours after reports of the launch emerged. It shrugged off suggestions it should be doing more to intervene in the rogue state’s military affairs, pinning the test down to Pyongyang’s testy relations with Washington and Seoul. It rejected criticism that it could do more to steer the regime away from its goal of developing a nuclear weapon capable of striking the US mainland.

US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield has now accused China of protecting Pyongyang stating that China and Russia have “bent over backwards” to justify repeated violations of UN sanctions by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Greenfield further stated that North Korea’s “staggering 59 ballistic missile launches this year,” including 13 since October 27 and one that made an “unprecedented impact” about 50 kilometers (30 miles) from South Korea’s shore, are about more than advancing Pyongyang’s military capabilities and seek to raise tensions and stoke fear in its neighbours. China’s UN Ambassador Zhang Jun refuted the charge stating that the DPRK missile launches were directly linked to the re-launch of large-scale US-South Korean military exercises after a five-year break, with hundreds of warplanes involved. He also pointed to the US Defence Department’s 2022 Nuclear Posture Review which he said envisaged the DPRK’s use of nuclear weapons and claimed that ending the DPRK regime is one of the strategy’s main goals.

After North Korea’s first nuclear test explosion in 2006, the Security Council had imposed sanctions and tightened them over the years seeking to rein in its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and cut off funding. In May, however, China and Russia blocked the Security Council resolution that would have
toughened sanctions over the missile launches, in the first serious rift on the council over the sanctions against North Korea.

The United States and its allies had a clash with China and Russia, accusing them of preventing action by the United Nations Security Council against North Korea for its escalating ballistic missile launches. North Korea has conducted a record number of missile launches in recent past, including an apparent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), bringing the total number of missiles fired to more than 60 so far this year.

Ignoring North Korea’s conduct, China along with Russia, whose relations with the West have severely deteriorated over its invasion of Ukraine, told the UN meeting that the US was to blame for the ongoing tension with North Korea.

China has maintained cordial relations with North Korea for mover 60 years. It had signed a treaty of friendship Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with DPRK in 1951. The treaty aims to strengthen China-DPRK friendly cooperation and safeguard regional peace and stability. Guided by the spirit of the Treaty, China and North Korea have been supporting and collaborating closely with each other over the past 60 years. The Treaty “has not only given a strong boost to the causes of socialist construction of the two countries, but also made important contributions to the regional and global peace and stability,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang.

It may be noted here that when North Korea carried out its last nuclear test on September 3, 2017, China’s President Xi Jinping was busy preparing to host the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa at a summit meant to burnish his image as a global statesman ahead of a critical Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress.

When Pyongyang had conducted sixth test it had triggered an earthquake of magnitude 6.3 that shook homes along the North Korea-China border and revived fears of nuclear contamination in the area. It had also shifted the slopes of the mountain where North Korea’s underground test sites were located by up to 3.5 metres (11.5 feet). Pyongyang had declared a “perfect success” of the test which involved a hydrogen bomb, capped months of accelerating weapons launches, including that of long-range missiles capable of hitting continental United States.

Analysts in US had condemned the atomic test and termed it as an “insult” to Beijing, which has long been North Korea’s chief ally and its primary trade partner, as well as a “diplomatic embarrassment” for Xi, who at the time was set to be confirmed for a second term as the Communist Party’s leader. There is a fear that North Korea may not listen to China on the nuclear test issue. However China would prefer to avoid embarrassing situation. Meanwhile, Chinese experts have blamed US South Korea for prevailing tension on the Korean Peninsula.

They said that the situation escalated to fresh heights recently when North Korea launched multiple missiles after a US-South Korea military drills kicked off. Chinese experts believe that the missile launches are in response to South Korean-US joint deterrence efforts, and that past experience has shown that increasing military deterrence against North Korea only provokes a tougher response from Pyongyang. Such statements are a testimony of the fact that China has been batting for North Korea with which it wants to maintain cordial and friendly relations under all circumstances.

L'articolo China defends North Korea for nuclear programme activity, Why? proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea’s Workers’ Party hosted a rare meeting that resulted in the nation’s leader, Kim Jong-un, being awarded a symbolically important position solidifying his authoritarian grip on the nation. It’s been almost a decade since Kim succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, becoming the third member of the Kim dynasty to rule the country.

But this past weekend, only days after his 37th birthday, Kim was anointed the ruling party’s General Secretary, a post once held by his father and his grandfather, Kim Il-sung.

Takeover Displays Kim’s Growing Confidence

Some analysts have concluded that this move was intended to strengthen his grip on power. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told the Guardian that Kim’s takeover “shows his confidence, that he has now officially joined the ranks of his father and grandfather.”

According to the Charter of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the General Secretary is the Supreme Leader of the Workers’ Party. The Party Congress nominates and elects the General Secretary. The Party Conference is also allowed to nominate and subsequently elect the General Secretary. What this means in practice is that the General Secretary is also a member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau, which is a committee consisting of the top leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

Kim will also act as head of the Executive Policy Bureau. This body manages the work of the Politburo of the Workers’ Party and its Presidium, headed by the Chairman and made up of party secretaries.

Kim’s Made it Clear He’s King of the Castle

Kim has expanded his influence over the management of the Workers’ Party and his latest actions indicate that he has centralized his power base. His recent changes also provide observers with a hint as to what his policy concerns are going to be over the next few years. First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui, who was involved in negotiations with Washington, has not been elected to the Politburo. No diplomatic official has been appointed to one of the seven newly created secretary posts. This proves that Kim will focus on economic sanctions and the effects of COVID-19 instead of foreign policy. It is more than likely that he will concentrate on building up Pyongyang’s military forces too.

Despite the fact that Kim has not hurled any insults toward Joe Biden, the incoming US President, he still labeled the US as North Korea’s ‘biggest enemy’ during the first Congress of the Workers’ Party in five years. His challenge to Washington included the prospect of a nuclear-powered submarine, now supposedly in the testing stage. He also intends to build on existing nuclear technology with smaller nuclear warheads.

Kim Intends to Take Full Control of His Country’s Destiny

Although Kim will be focusing on domestic issues, he is still open to the prospect of denuclearization so long as Washington ends its “aggressive” policies toward Pyongyang. US President Donald Trump’s move to meet Kim was ballsy, but it failed to persuade Kim to end his nuclear program. Unless Biden can somehow end the current deadlock, there is no reason why the North Korean leader won’t continue to build up his country’s military arsenal.

What is also interesting is that the North Korean leader removed his sister, Kim Yo-jong, from the Politburo, yet she retained her membership of the Central Committee. Some may argue that this could be interpreted as a demotion, but Yo-jong exercised considerable influence during Kim’s summits with the Trump administration, so it is more than likely that she will oversee Pyongyang’s relations with South Korea.

The timing of Kim’s latest actions is no coincidence. They come just as Joe Biden is about to be sworn in as the next US President. What they also suggest is that Kim intends to take full control of North Korea’s destiny.

L'articolo North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Gets Big Power Boost proviene da InsideOver.

As former US vice president Joe Biden prepares his transition into the White House following a heated presidential election — the results of which current President Donald Trump still has not yet accepted — it looks possible that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is going to present the incoming president with a foreign policy headache as soon as he starts his new job.

North Korea’s state media once described Biden as a “rabid dog who should be beaten to death,” and Kim has yet to comment publicly on the result of last week’s presidential election.

The incoming president, who has been critical of Trump’s “cozy relationships” with numerous dictators, was never expected to copy the current President’s strategy of love-bombing North Korea’s leader, but the Biden administration is already off to a bad start in trying to resolve the North Korean question given Pyongyang’s view of him.

Trump’s Considerable Progress with Pyongyang

Andrei Lankov, a professor of North Korean studies at Kookmin University in Seoul, told the Express Online that Pyongyang is going to be “deeply unhappy” with a Biden presidency.

Furthermore, the incoming president has previously branded North Korea’s leader as a “thug.”

Despite this, it’s important to remember that the relationship between Kim and Trump also started off badly in 2017. The current President mockingly described North Korea’s leader as “rocket man” before meeting Kim for conferences designed to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

Though Trump ultimately failed to resolve the North Korean question — which has been haunting US presidents for decades — he made far more progress on this issue than his predecessor President Barack Obama. He became the first American president to enter North Korea’s border and he managed to ensure that both North and South Korea entered into peaceful dialog, which is a crucial first step toward ending the unfinished war between Pyongyang and Seoul.

Biden may not approve of Trump’s attitude toward dictators, but regarding North Korea, it’s fair to say that the strategy has paid off to a certain extent.

Biden Should Make North Korea-South Korea Peace a Priority

Before the recent US election, I wrote in a previous column that Kim’s recent display of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) demonstrates that the Korean peace process is over. Nonetheless, that does not mean I believe that Biden should start imposing fresh sanctions on Pyongyang, because they are clearly failing to prevent North Korea’s regime from acquiring nuclear weapons.

I also stressed that whoever becomes the next US president should prioritize ending the hostilities between North and South Korea. This is because the benefit of such an approach would slowly steer Pyongyang away from Beijing’s influence.

If this is the path that Biden chooses, he will find it impossible to achieve such an outcome without meeting North Korea’s leader face-to-face.

Biden May Have to Meet Kim Jong-un at Some Stage

The Chinese Government may be more open to collaborating with Biden to start paving the way for an end to North Korea’s nuclear missile program. For example, one solution is for Beijing to provide Pyongyang with payments that are tied to denuclearization.

Yet the incoming president has also referred to Jinping as a “thug.” Such comments would make it difficult for China and America to collaborate with one another to end North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, but that depends on whether Biden’s policy approach toward Beijing is going to be exactly the same as Trump’s.

Gregory F. Treverton argued in Time that one possible option to curb Pyongyang’s nuclear program is regime change from within. This could happen because of the economic impact that the coronavirus is having on North Korea, yet the country’s regime has a remarkable history of preserving itself. Nevertheless, regime change is ultimately the only way to achieve positive change in Korea.

The reality is that there will be no change in the relationship between North Korea and the US once Biden enters the White House this January. Equally, the incoming president might have to quietly adopt Trump’s approach toward Pyongyang if he has any hope of persuading Kim to surrender his nuclear weapons.

L'articolo What’s Next for US-North Korea Relations in a Biden Administration? proviene da InsideOver.

Former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton recently warned that North Korea is more dangerous than ever due to Pyongyang’s recent progress in its nuclear capabilities.

North Korea Unveils Powerful New Missile

North Korea recently introduced its latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) during the military parade on the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party last weekend. South Korea has raised concerns over its neighbor’s multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) as it could target them in an attack.

North Korea’s latest missile could be interpreted by the US as a sign to boost its missile defense systems in South Korea. Also, the military parade will prompt the Trump administration — or whoever wins the upcoming presidential election — to re-think the best way to negotiate with the communist state after the three previous summits (2018 in Singapore, February 2019 in Hanoi, and June 2019 after the G-20 summit) failed to produce results. 

‘Monster’ ICBM Missile and North Korea’s Arsenal

The military parade that displayed North Korea’s latest “monster” missile drew widespread international attention. The ICBM was carried out by a transporter erector launcher (TEL) and paraded around Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang. The TEL has 22 wheels, indicating that the ICBM is the largest North Korea has ever had.

In addition to the ICBM, North Korea also unveiled a submarine-launched ballistic missile called Pukguksong-4. Pyongyang has two types of ICBMs: the Hwasong-13 that can travel up to 5,500 km and the Hwasong-14 with a range of 10,058 km.

The Hwasong-15 — which North Korea usually relies on — was carried out by the 18-wheeled TEL. In other words, the latest ICBM is around 25 percent bigger than the Hwasong-15 which already has a considerable range of 12,874 km.

North Korea has also tested the Hwasong-14 which can reach 10,000 kilometers if launched with a maximum trajectory. With such a specification, the Hwasong-14 could be the first ICBM that could be used to hit a target as far as New York City.

Several experts have assessed these missile capabilities but vary on whether or not they can actually hit numerous targets simultaneously.

“What North Korea has shown us, what appears to be a new liquid-fueled ICBM that seems to be a derivative of what was tested back in late 2017 — known as the Hwasong-15 — is much bigger and clearly more powerful than anything in the DPRK’s arsenal,” explained Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean studies at the Washington DC-based Center for the National Interest.

What Should Washington Do?

North Korea’s latest military showdown has disappointed the US and South Korea, given that both Pyongyang and Washington have yet to produce a concrete result from the three meetings between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. 

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said that North Korea’s missile is a serious threat to global security and stability. Close US allies Japan and South Korea have also expressed their discontent publicly.

Trump and Kim have failed to produce a concrete result from the three meetings. However, efforts are still underway to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. Current US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien said he hopes that there will be a negotiation with North Korea after the upcoming US election on November 3.

Sanctions relief could be one of the options taken by the White House to achieve peace with North Korea as well as refraining from conducting military exercises in the peninsula and increasing civil society participation. As the US election is approaching, some experts are wondering what such a policy could look like.

“Paradoxically, the next president is going to be more free to take a different approach than any past administration, so if we can make some better choices in this space I am actually pretty hopeful about where we can end up,” said Van Jackson, a senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington.

L'articolo How Dangerous is North Korea? proviene da InsideOver.

North Korea’s recent military parade was attended by leader Kim Jong-un and was an opportunity for the regime to restore some pride back to a nation that has had a devastating summer as a result of a long monsoon season and economic damage wrought by the coronavirus.

However, the parade also provided observers with a frightening insight into the militaristic ambitions of its leader.

Dramatic Display of ‘Massive’ Long Range ICBMS

The parade was meant to mark the 75th anniversary of the Workers’ Party, but correspondents say that previously unseen “massive” long range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) were displayed. This is typical of North Korea’s regimes to use parades to show off new missiles and weaponry.

North Korea had not featured ballistic missiles in its parades since US President Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart held their first summit in 2018.

Pyongyang’s Plans Military Buildup

Kim said during a speech to those who attended the parade that Pyongyang would continue to “strengthen its military for self-defense and deterrence.”

The recent military display was immediately condemned by US officials. One senior US government figure called on Pyongyang to commit itself to total denuclearization immediately.

Meanwhile, experts said that the new, larger ICBM is likely designed to carry multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs), allowing it to attack more targets and making interception more difficult.

Markus Garlauskas, a former US intelligence officer for North Korea, told the Daily Mail that the new ICBM is intended to dispel doubts about Pyongyang’s ability to strike the US, and that they are preparing to test the missile.

The US-North Korean Peace Process is Over

Either way, North Korea’s military parade is a clear sign that the US-North Korean peace process that Trump has been overseeing for the last two years is over. Victor Cha, who was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, believes that Trump cannot hope to achieve a successful outcome in North Korea without the help of China. Yet a coordinated response between Washington and Beijing to end Pyongyang’s nuclear program seems out of the question for now.

Both Trump’s 18-month trade war with China and the coronavirus have caused US-Chinese relations to reach an all-time low, and over the weekend Beijing proved that it has no interest in persuading Kim to scale back his military ambitions. In a congratulatory message to the North Korean leader for the anniversary, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he intended to ‘defend, consolidate and develop ties’ with North Korea.

At a time when the world seems to be turning against China, Beijing has few allies left and it is no wonder that they are keen to develop their relationship with North Korea.

Trump deserves a lot of credit for his extraordinary efforts to bring peace to the Korean peninsular. He has been accused of sucking up to dictators by his opponents, but he is the first US president to enter North Korea by taking 20 steps into the nation.

Ending Pyongyang’s Nuclear Program is No Longer a Realistic Goal

Also, Trump almost succeeded in securing an agreement with Kim during the Hanoi summit in February, but he failed to do so because the US president would not compromise on sanctions relief.

Despite this, Kim expressed his willingness over the weekend to foster peaceful relations with South Korea. Whoever wins the US election in November should prioritize ending the hostilities between Seoul and Pyongyang, as ending the latter’s nuclear program seems like an unrealistic prospect. One benefit of such a policy could be that it slowly steers North Korea away from Chinese influence.

The Trump administration is paralyzed at the moment and it cannot continue to develop its foreign policy toward North Korea until the outcome of the US election has been decided. Unless the next US president can defy all odds and commit Pyongyang to an agreement that cuts back its nuclear weapons, thwarting Kim’s military ambitions seems like a lost cause now. Fostering peaceful relations between Pyongyang and Seoul, however, could be achieved as long as Kim does not go back on his word, and many observers know he is renowned for that.

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Questions are being raised again over the effectiveness of sanctions against North Korea after a recent United Nations (UN) report revealed that North Korea has successfully built miniature nuclear weapons. The UN document also states that the North Korean regime has achieved a key breakthrough in its nuclear program by creating a nuclear warhead small enough to be carried on a nuclear missile.

The Recent Revelations

The UN said on Monday that Pyongyang is violating international sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear program by exceeding a cap on petroleum imports and sending its workers overseas, including a former Juventus footballer.

Furthermore, the UN Security Council said an annual 500,000 barrel cap on imports of refined petroleum products had been broken in the first five months of 2020 alone.

Considering US President Donald Trump has committed himself to bringing peace to the Korean peninsula, the world would normally look to his country for a reaction to a report like the one the UN has produced recently. Regardless, his administration is powerless until the winner of the November election has been declared.

Sanctions Against North Korea are Failing

Nonetheless, this news, alongside a series of revelations in the last month that have exposed how North Korea is evading US sanctions, calls into question the US’s approach toward North Korea. Earlier this month, NBC News obtained a trove of confidential bank documents which revealed how North Korea moves illicit cash across borders despite international sanctions to block Pyongyang’s access to the global financial system.

The suspected laundering by North Korea-linked organizations totaled more than $174.8 million over several years, with transactions approved by American banks like JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon.

Yet that does not mean sanctions have had no effect on Kim Jong-un’s regime.

North Korea’s UN Ambassador Kim Song told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that despite his country’s “reliable and effective war deterrent for self-defense,” international sanctions were a hindrance to the North Korean leader’s plans to accelerate his nation’s economy. This could be interpreted by the Trump administration as an admission that sanctions are damaging North Korea’s economy.

Nonetheless, regardless of who wins the US election in November, peace seems unlikely for many reasons.

Cooperation with China is Out of the Question

Firstly, the West needs Beijing’s help to tackle North Korea, but a coordinated response with China is out of the question for now. Even if Joe Biden wins the US election, he will be forced to adopt a tough stance toward Beijing because of the coronavirus originating from there. Yet China provides North Korea’s economy with a critical lifeline, so assuming the current tension between Beijing and Washington does not escalate into a cold war, cooperation between the two powers may be necessary at some stage.

Kim is aware that the number of sanctions against his regime will increase if there are no cuts to Pyongyang’s nuclear program, yet that has not stopped him from supposedly developing miniature nuclear weapons. It is clear he cannot be trusted to commit himself to peace, which means negotiations are a waste of time.

North Korea’s Regime Must Go

The only way peace can become a reality would be if North Korea’s regime collapsed, and this looks like a strong possibility. A long monsoon season damaged 96,300 acres of farmland and 16,680 homes, including roads and rail lines. Also, food shortages caused Kim to respond by ordering pet dogs to be confiscated for food.

This is a regime in trouble and if it refuses to accept outside help, its end is inevitable.

The more North Korea defies international sanctions, the less likely its leader is to commit to a reduction in its nuclear program. No matter who occupies the White House from January onward, they will probably struggle to ensure Kim commits to ending his nuclear program. To give peace a chance, the current regime in Pyongyang must go, and it must go as soon as possible.

L'articolo Does North Korea’s Mini-Ballistic Missile Program Make Peace Unlikely? proviene da InsideOver.

Iran and North Korea are once again taking center stage in American politics as US President Donald Trump intends to proceed with issuing an executive order imposing fresh sanctions on Iranians linked to his country’s energy industry, despite key European nations warning that he does not have the legal power to do so.

The President has declared that anyone trading arms with Iran will remain subject to sanctions beyond October, the date the embargo was due to be lifted.

Suspected North Korean Money Laundering

Meanwhile, the effectiveness of sanctions is being questioned after NBC News obtained a trove of confidential bank documents which reveal how North Korea moves illicit cash across borders despite international sanctions to block Pyongyang’s access to the global financial system.

The suspected laundering by North Korea-linked organizations totaled more than $174.8 million over several years, with transactions approved by American banks like JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon.

During a time when Trump is keen to avoid war with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the US President has resorted to sanctions as a method of economic combat with the leaders of the two rogue states.

North Korea Could Be Building up its Military Arsenal

Trump has also used sanctions as a means of persuasion to force Rouhani and Kim back to the negotiating table. Throughout the first term of his presidency, Trump’s sanctions have failed to convince the Iranian and North Korean leaders to negotiate new peace agreements that would lead to a reduction of US sanctions, in exchange for the gradual end of Pyongyang’s and Tehran’s nuclear programs.

The Daily Mail reports that South Korea’s incoming military chief Won In-choul is monitoring developments in North Korea, after satellite photos have revealed a flurry of activity at the Sinpo South Shipyard where Pyongyang builds submarines. This could be the first time that the country’s regime will showcase its largest missiles since 2018.

With only less than two months before a presidential election, it is unlikely that Trump will achieve a landmark deal with North Korea to convince voters that he is the man who can tackle Kim.

Sanctions Can’t Do Everything

When President Obama issued fresh sanctions on Iran in July 2010, Nicholas Burns, the most senior professional US diplomat in the Bush administration, said they failed because countries like China ignored them. Yet the former president was able to eventually persuade the EU, Russia and China to support his 2015 Iran deal.

The BBC’s Jonathan Marcus argued that sanctions can only work if they are universally applied. This is the issue that Trump faces – no other nation is following his lead on Iran or North Korea, mostly because he has fallen out with the nations involved in the 2015 Iran deal. If the US President wins November’s election, he must persuade his country’s allies to follow his lead on Iran and North Korea.

Victor Cha, who was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007, said Trump needs China’s help to tackle Jong-un as Beijing supports Pyongyang’s economy. Tensions between Washington and Beijing are only likely to escalate in the future, which means the two nations are unlikely to cooperate on peace in North Korea.

Trump Can’t Solve These Problems on His Own

Given Pyongyang’s recent problems regarding flooding and the economic effects of the coronavirus, it appears that the only way to defeat North Korea now is by hoping that its regime collapses, which means Trump could deploy more sanctions in the future to cripple Kim.

Trump bragged that he will ‘have a deal with Iran within four weeks’ of his re-election, and to do so he must persuade his allies to support a deal that cuts US sanctions in exchange for the gradual end of Tehran’s nuclear program, as outlined by French President Emmanuel Macron last October. Considering the US’s allies refused to support Washington over its latest announcement on sanctions against Iran, it remains questionable as to whether they would support such a deal.

If sanctions are a means to an end, then Trump has failed to deploy them effectively against Iran. North Korea’s money laundering scheme proves they are finding ways to break their own US sanctions. To end the threat that Iran and North Korea pose to Washington, Trump needs to be more imaginative.

L'articolo Have US Sanctions Against Iran and North Korea Failed? proviene da InsideOver.

With all the contradictory reports about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un bombarding the media right now and the lack of transparency from the country’s regime in general, it is difficult to ascertain the truth about the state of the dictator’s well-being.

Conflicting Reports about Kim Jong-un’s Health

According to The Sun, Kim is in a coma as North Korea prepares to hand power to his sister, Kim Yo-jong. Rumors about Kim’s health have been circulating since April, with some reports suggesting that he is in a “vegetative state” following a botched heart operation.

Although late South Korean President Kim Dae-jung consistently insisted that the rogue state is hiding the truth about their leader’s health, it has been confirmed by South Korea’s spy agency, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), that Kim has already gradually started to transfer authority to his 33-year-old sister, with the North Korean leader determining events in the background.

Kim’s Departure Won’t Change Anything

These rumors have been triggered by the North Korean leader’s lack of public appearances this year, though North Korea News reported last week that Kim presided over a plenary meeting of the country’s ruling Workers’ Party on August 19 where members discussed “an issue of crucial significance.”

Regardless of whether Kim is in good health or not, a leadership change is not the answer to North Korea’s growing problems. Even if Kim Yo-jong is starting to enjoy more responsibility while her brother supposedly remains in critical condition, her consolidation of power will represent business as usual for the country’s regime.

Kim Yo-jong Will Also Likely Fail to Get a Nuclear Deal with the US

Considering US President Donald Trump failed to make any progress with Kim in persuading North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, Kim Yo-jong would almost definitely be an even bigger obstacle for the US’s ambitions in the Korean peninsular.

In 2017, the dictator’s sister was made a member of the politburo, the Workers’ Party’s senior ruling committee, which provided her with greater power over state security.

However, Kim Yo-jong was then demoted in 2019 after she was held responsible for the failure of the Hanoi Summit, which saw Trump scrap denuclearization talks. If Kim’s sister was ineffective at reaching progress with the US as a member of the politburo, she would be even worse at this task if she became North Korea’s leader.

Kim Yo-jong’s Remarkable Comeback

Despite her past demotion, Kim Yo-jong has had a rapid return to favor after falling out of grace with her brother. Kim’s sister was elected to the Supreme People’s Assembly as a representative for Killimgil in 2019.

In April 2020, she was reinstated to the Workers’ Party’s politburo.

Since becoming a prominent figure in Pyongyang again, Yo-jong has taunted neighboring South Korea. In July, she made her first public statement, referring to Seoul as a “frightened dog barking” after the South Korean Government protested about the North’s live-fire military exercise. While her brother has made strides with the South, these actions prove that a North Korean regime led by Kim’s sister would reverse progress both sides of the Korean peninsular have made in recent years.

The US and South Korea Should Worry About Kim Yo-jong

Kim Yo-jong has a talent for transforming her political fortunes, but because she is an influential member of the Workers’ Party and Kim Jong-un’s sibling, there will be no pragmatic solutions to North Korea’s problems, which include food shortages, the economic impact of the coronavirus and flooding. There is no evidence to suggest that her beliefs are any different to her brother’s, which means that if Kim does have to resign, then Pyongyang will miss out on an opportunity to introduce any genuine changes.

As soon as the North Korean leader became ill, he was never likely to let his grip over his country’s regime loosen. This is why his sister is the best person to potentially succeed him as their ideological outlooks are practically the same. But the US and South Korea should worry about Kim Yo-jong becoming North Korea’s leader, as she could thwart all the progress Washington and Seoul have made to try and normalize relations with Pyongyang.

L'articolo Why Fresh Leadership in North Korea Won’t Change Anything proviene da InsideOver.

For decades, North Korea has proved to be a menace on the international stage and many US presidents have struggled to reach an agreement with Pyongyang to curb its nuclear program.

Is North Korea Collapsing on its Own?

Despite this, events over the last couple of weeks seem to suggest that the North Korean regime led by Kim Jong-un may be beginning to collapse from within.

According to North Korea News, the country’s ruling Workers’ Party elite will convene a plenary meeting on August 19th “to consider an issue of crucial significance.” Kim is expected to attend and possibly announce significant domestic and foreign policy changes. ABC News reports that the Workers’ Party intends to ‘develop the Korean revolution’ and increase the party’s “fighting efficiency.”

North Korea’s Many Challenges

During the December 2019 plenum, the North Korean leader warned citizens to expect economic hardship as his regime would no longer pursue talks with the US or seek sanctions relief for taking steps toward denuclearization. Kim was right to anticipate that 2020 would bring a plethora of issues that his regime would face later on in the year.

North Korea has received no sanctions relief as the US’s efforts to persuade Pyongyang to roll back its nuclear program in favor of the lifting of sanctions has failed. But North Korea has been able to resist the crippling effects sanctions have had on its economy thanks to its trade with China, even though that has declined in recent years.

In 2018, Chinese imports from Pyongyang plummeted by 88 percent. UN numbers show that Chinese imports of North Korean coal, iron ore and other natural resources increased dramatically from 2010 onward. Yet Beijing imported no coal from North Korea between January and March 2018. This shows that North Korea depends upon trade with China.

The Coronavirus Has Devastated North Korea’s Trade Relationship with China

Nonetheless, China’s economic fortunes this year have been affected by the global fallout caused by the coronavirus. Jong-un also took drastic action to curb the spread of the pandemic in his own nation. He ordered the city of Kaesong to be locked down last month, suspecting a defector who crossed back over the border from South Korea of introducing the virus to the north. But it is COVID-19’s economic effects that have had a more severe impact on North Korea.

The New York Times suggests that the country’s exports to China, impacted by the border shutdown, sank to $27 million in the first half of this year, a 75 percent drop from a year ago. Imports from China dropped to 67 percent, or $380 million.

There is some good news for Kim, as a Bloomberg report highlights that China’s industrial production has picked up growth and stopped shrinking in the retail sales sector. But China’s strong economic performance alone won’t save North Korea.

North Korea is in Severe Crisis

North Korea’s fortunes have also been affected by external factors. An unusually long monsoon season, as well as torrential rains in August, triggered floods and landslides in the nation. The natural disaster had damaged 96,300 acres of farmland and 16,680 homes, including roads and rail lines. To make matters worse, Kim refused to accept any international aid.

This is a regime that is in trouble. For decades, North Korea has been able to withstand sanctions and isolation from the outside world, but its luck may be running out now. As the country struggles with food shortages as well, the North Korean leader has ordered pet dogs to be confiscated in Pyongyang so that they can be used for meat. He claims that the pooches represent “Western decadence” and ‘a trend tainted by bourgeois ideology,” yet this is more of a desperate sign of a government that has reached its peak while failing to feed its own population.

North Korea’s situation is alarming. If its regime does not find a way to spark an economic recovery and fast, it is more than likely that both the economy and the government will collapse internally. As US sanctions are a contributing factor toward North Korea’s economic growth, Kim must ask himself an important question: are nuclear weapons more important than a starving population?

L'articolo Is North Korea Starting to Collapse from Within? proviene da InsideOver.

US Cities Within North Korean Striking Range

The report, which cited claims from anonymous nations, was penned by “an independent panel of experts” tasked with overseeing states sanctioned by the UN, as Reuters reported. If it is true that North Korea has developed nuclear weapons that can be launched within ballistic missiles, the dynamic of the US–North Korea relationship may be forever altered.

“The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is continuing its nuclear program, including the production of highly enriched uranium and construction of an experimental light water reactor. A Member State assessed that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is continuing production of nuclear weapons,” according to the report, which was forwarded to the UN Security Council North Korea sanctions committee.

The report has not yet been made public, though Reuters reviewed a copy of it.

Pyongyang’s miniaturized arsenal could put American cities within striking distance according to Newsweek. Combined with its armament of intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea “achieved a plausible enough ability—even if it was not perfectly reliable—to be able to hold the U.S. homeland at risk,” said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at MIT and a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

‘This is Not a Theory, it’s Almost Certainly a Fact’

That development should not come as a shock, however, as experts monitoring the situation have long-suspected Pyongyang possesses the capabilities. 

“To be quite honest, I am shocked this is even news at this point,” said Harry Kazianis, the senior director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest.

“The only question now is how accurate would the delivery of a nuclear device be and how many hundreds of thousands of people—if not millions—would die in such an attack. This is not a theory, it’s almost certainly a fact,” Kazianis added.

Creating a Deterrence

The Kim dynasty has dreamed of nuclear weapons since the state’s founding, but Kim and his father, Kim Jong Il significantly quickened the development pace. The late leader’s ambitions resulted in UN sanctions in 2006, but that only increased the state’s push for nuclear armament. However, the last known nuclear test by Pyongyang was in September 2017, suggesting either that the state has abandoned its nuclear program or achieved its goal.

The UN report gives credence to the latter. In fact, although North Korea demolished tunnels at a nuclear test site in May 2018, the report states that one observer nation found the installation can be rebuilt within three months. The tunnel demolition was only for show—Pyongyang had no earnest intention to shutter its nuclear program.

In July, Kim declared his state had achieved its nuclear goal, NBC News reported.

“Thanks to our reliable and effective self-defense nuclear deterrence, the word war would no longer exist on this land, and the security and future of our state will be guaranteed forever,” Kim said. 

At the time, some observers may have misconstrued his words to be more of the same: propaganda with no real substance behind it, like when Kim promised the US a “Christmas gift” last year. The new UN report, however, means that Kim wasn’t bluffing when he celebrated the nuclear achievement.

A History of Relationship Failures

Given that North Korea now possesses miniaturized nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US mainland, Washington must change its approach to Pyongyang. Previous American administrations tried an array of strategies from preparing for war to pursuing normalization.

After Kim ascended to office, relations became more dicey as he shed notions of diplomacy in pursuit of nuclear weapons. American President Donald Trump brought a fresh approach to handling Kim by reaching out in an almost friend-like manner. The two exchanged correspondence, with Trump bragging about letters on several occasions. Trump and Kim thrice met in what had appeared to be hopeful negotiations. 

All of that was for not, however as talks broke down without a signed agreement. North Korean officials have since blamed the US for being unwilling to offer enough concessions to stop pursuing nuclear weapons. More recently, Pyongyang has said it refuses to hold further talks because Trump is only engaging in them for political theater, not to actually resolve the dispute between the two powers.

Since the June 2019 meeting between Trump, Kim, and South Korean President Moon Jae In at the DMZ, Washington has effectively turned a blind eye to North Korea. While the Trump administration has tackled crises and invited trouble with a handful of other states—Iran, China, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Russia, Turkey, and Germany, to name a few—North Korea hasn’t received the attention it once did. 

Time for America to Rethink Its NK Strategy

Washington must rededicate itself to pursuing diplomacy with Pyongyang, however, given the threat it now seems to pose.

“US strategy towards North Korea’s nuclear program needs to be radically re-imagined, as we operate today as if North Korea can’t build, won’t build or hasn’t built nuclear weapons—a type of nuclear denialism that quite frankly is dangerous,” Kazianis told Newsweek. He went on to suggest that since the US coexists with a nuclearized Russia, China, and Pakistan, North Korea should receive the same treatment. 

Ignorance of the situation, denial of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and bullying disguised as negotiating are all tactics that simply will not improve the US–North Korea relationship. Moreover, Washington’s treatment of Pyongyang will only further serve to reinforce its resolve that nuclear weapons are the only way to engender respect from America.

The problem, however, is that now that it has nuclear capabilities, if the US doesn’t honor that reality, North Korea could be compelled to make a show of force. Nuclear weapons for the Kim dynasty have always been about becoming equal to China, Russia, and the US. It wants a seat at that same table and has viewed nuclear armament as a means to that end.

The time to start listening to North Korea is now, before it’s too late. A renewed approach that respects Pyongyang rather than patronizes it could return diplomatic dividends.

L'articolo North Korea’s Miniaturized Nuclear Weapons Demand a New Approach from Washington proviene da InsideOver.