After languishing for years, the change of administration in the US and a newly-receptive Europe has meant Japan’s idea for an infrastructure investment strategy to rival China’s can finally get off the ground. But it has much catching up to do, and Asian countries remain sceptical of getting involved with something too confrontational toward China.

Amid the flurry of statements declaring China to be an adversary of concern during US President Joe Biden’s visit to Europe in June – from the G7 to NATO to the EU – one bit of language in the EU-US joint statement caught China-watchers’ eye.

“We intend to work together with our partners for a free and open Indo-Pacific,” the statement reads. It was no accident that the language exactly referenced the name of the streategy developed by Japan and the United States as a Western response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. That the EU leaders would choose to use those words is significant, because Europe has so far been skeptical of this Tokyo-developed plan. Has President Biden managed to unify the West around the Free and Open Indo-Pacific as the counterweight to the Belt and Road Initiative?

The FOIP concept was first introduced by Japan in 2016, three years after Chinese leader Xi Jinping first unveiled BRI during an official visit to Kazakhstan. BRI is meant to harken back to the Silk Road, a network of overland trade routes connecting Europe and China via Central Asia from the 2nd century BCE till the 18th century. The BRI seeks to revive those ancient land routes while also establishing a new “21st century maritime silk road” through Southeast Asia to South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Since being unveiled it has become a centerpiece of Xi Jinping’s foreign policy, even being enshrined into the Chinese Constitution in 2017.

The United States and Japan have viewed this initiative with intense suspicion, believing it to be an effort to establish economic control over neighbors, particularly in Southeast Asia, and expand Chinese military activities. They fear “debt bombs”, where China lends money at mouth-wateringly low interest rates to developing countries for infrastructure projects, and then seizes control of the project when the country can’t repay the loan. This has already been seen in Sri Lanka, where the Hambantota Port came under Chinese control after the country was unable to pay its debt for a 99-year long-term lease agreement.

There are concerns that a similar fate will befall other Belt and Road projects, such as a 420-kilometre high-speed railway linking Kunming, China with Vientiane, the capital of Laos. The estimated construction costs are estimated at about $5.8 billion, which is nearly half of Laos’ GDP. The Laos government is taking on debt for 4/5 of that cost.

Another suspicion is that China is improving harbors with the intention if eventually acquiring the exclusive rights to use them and turn those harbors into naval bases for the Peoples Liberation Army. These suspicions are particularly strong for Gwandar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Vanuatu in the South Pacific and Koh Kong in Cambodia. Ideas floated to build a canal across Thailand’s portion of the Malay Peninsula, allowing Chinese ships to bypass the Malacca Strait, have raised alarm in Washington.

Japanese failure to convince

FOIP has languished since the idea was put forward by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2016. The biggest challenge so far was getting the United States interested.

Although President Trump did a lot of sabre-rattling against China in his visits with Asian leaders and embraced FOIP in theory, his administration didn’t do anything with it. For its part, Japan seemed to take its foot off the gas in pushing it after the change in US administration, perhaps not wanting it to be associated with the volatile Trump administration.

Trump’s bellicose language on China, which was backed up by little in the way of action, actually seemed to make Southeast Asian countries more wary of signing up to FOIP. A survey of Southeast Asian government, academic, business and media elites in 2018 by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore found that over half of respondents said America’s power and influence had “deteriorated” during the Trump administration. Over 30% said they had no or little confidence in the US as a strategic partner and provider of regional security.

As FOIP gathered dust, other ideas for countering Belt and Road appeared. In 2019 the US, Japan and Australia together launched the “Blue Dot Network”, designed to provide assessment and certification of infrastructure development projects worldwide on measures of financial transparency, environmental sustainability, and impact on economic development, with the goal of mobilizing private capital as an alternative to Chinese debt. But it is far less ambitious than the FOIP idea.

Biden’s embrace

When Biden defeated Trump in the November 2020 US election, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who had inherited FOIP from his predecessor, set out to revive the project and convince the Biden administration of its worth. After their first phone call on 28 January, the two leaders issued a joint statement that said they would “work side-by-side to address regional challenges and to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific”. The language elicited relief in Japan, where government officials had worried that during their communications with the Biden transition team they were associating the idea with Trump and perhaps even mistakenly thought his administration had come up with it. The Japanese were keen to point out that it was in fact developed by Japan at the end of the Obama administration.

Since then, the Biden team has embraced the concept. It was again mentioned in March at a meeting of the ‘quad’ – Japan, Australia, India and the US – where the four said in a joint statement they are “committed to promoting a free, open rules-based order, rooted in international law to advance security and prosperity and counter threats to both the Indo-Pacific and beyond”.

That Biden is now pushing the idea in Europe, and got the language into the conclusions of a summit that didn’t involve Japan at all, has Tokyo ecstatic. The question is, now that FOIP has its mojo back in the West, what can it really achieve?

Clearly, it would have a lot of catching up to do to really pose a threat to Belt and Road – not just in terms of investment, but also in terms of trust. The selling point of FOIP is that unlike BRI, it is supposed to be providing infrastructure investment free of political control. Free trade and infrastructure improvement are meant to go hand in hand with a guarantee to maintain regional order and freedom of navigation. In other words, FOIP is compatible with the world we live in now, and doesn’t require a geopolitical adjustment in China’s favor.

The problem is that Southeast Asian countries so far haven’t seen FOIP in this way. ASEAN, the body representing them, has repeatedly stressed that its main geopolitical objective is “balance” – they do not want to be forced to choose between the US and China. Singapore, the most developed country in the region, has been particularly skeptical of FOIP while it has enthusiastically embraced the business opportunities of BRI. The Duterte administration in the Philippines has also embraced BRI.

But enthusiasm for BRI varies by country. Vietnam, which has territorial disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, has been very wary of deepening its economic dependence on China and has looked more toward Japan. Brunei and Cambodia have also been more welcoming to FOIP.

Shoji Tomotaka, head of the Asia and Africa division at the National Institute for Defense Studies in Japan, believes that for the moment ASEAN views FOIP as too explicitly confrontation with Japan. In 2018 the bloc put forward its own rival “Indo-Pacific Cooperation” strategy which he believes is trying to pull FOIP in a more neutral direction. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore, the chair of ASEAN when that strategy was adopted, was expressing this desire when he said, “We do not want to end up with rival blocs forming or countries having to take one side or the other”. He said he hopes to see FOIP transform in a way that is sensitive to ASEAN’s concerns.

How can FOIP take on China’s Belt and Road initiative without being explicitly confrontational toward Beijing? That is the puzzle the Japanese and American governments must figure out if they want to revive the initiative in 2021. What is clear is that so far, the Indo-Pacific isn’t buying what Tokyo and Washington have been selling.

L'articolo Japan relaunches Foip with the West to contain China proviene da InsideOver.

Japan is boosting its defense in anticipation of potential opponents in the region, via the modernization of its air and naval forces.

Suga Pledges to Continue Abe’s National-Conservative Agenda

When Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga took office in mid-September, he pledged to continue his predecessor Shinzo Abe’s national-conservative agenda. In particular this applies to Abe’s long pursued strengthening of the Japanese military. Accordingly, Japan’s defense spending will increase for the ninth year in a row, by 1.1 percent to a new record of 42.4 billion euros, resulting in five percent of overall government spending.

The focus of the new budget is on modernizing weapons systems in order to increase the country’s deterrence against its adversaries in the region such as North Korea. Approximately 266 million euros are allocated towards new missile systems, which will take five years to fully deploy and are supposed to keep enemy warships at bay via an increased range of truck-mounted missile systems located in Okinawa.

Details of Japan’s Military Hardware Upgrade

Japan is willing to invest generously in the modernization of its weaponry arsenal. The research and development of next-generation combat aircraft will cost the government 580 million euros. Six Lockheed F-35 stealth bombers will be built for a total of 515 million euros. Manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy — one of the world’s largest defense contractors — will have its hands full.

At the same time, Japan is preparing the construction of two compact destroyers, which will strengthen the sea-based defense system against missiles from North Korea. In 2021, 13.5 million euros will initially be invested here. But by their completion in 2025, the two ships will cost over four billion euros. The destroyers are intended to replace the planned land-based Aegis defense system that Abe’s previous government abandoned in the summer — officially for cost reasons. The new destroyers will receive a more powerful radar system with a range three times greater than their predecessors.

However, the upgrades and developments of new weapon systems also enliven the age-old debate in Japan regarding whether the pacifist constitution allows the use of long-range missiles. As early as 1956, politicians and constitutional lawyers discussed the legality of Japanese rocket attacks on other countries for preventive defense. Today’s scenario would be that Japan would destroy a North Korean missile on its launch site if North Korea plans an attack on Japan.

The risk here is apparent: if Japan were to misjudge such a threat, it would likely start a war, not defending itself against an attack.

US-Japan Relations

Japanese possession of medium and long-range missiles could influence the established division of labor with its security partner, the US. So far, the cooperation has been based on the “shield and sword” principle. The Japanese act as the defensive shield, while the 55,000 US soldiers stationed in Japan wield the “sword” against the enemy. But that paradigm had worn out over many years, particularly as of late, when Japan started to doubt Washington’s unconditional support under President Donald Trump. It initiated a change in its modus operandi and began seeking a more independent defense approach.

Hence, Japan is entering new legal and military territory in order to be able to defend itself against attack more effectively. A joint military maneuver between the Japanese, France, and the US in May is thus not surprising and likely only the beginning of a more active Japanese military.

In addition, a debate whether or not Japan should become a member of “Five Eyes”, the intelligence alliance of the US, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, continues to persist. The Japanese government has neither confirmed nor denied the potential cooperation with “Five Eyes,” as it needs to consider its relationship with China.

Nonetheless, Japan is likely to continue its “peace through strength” approach in the region and the new defense budget is a testimony of exactly this.

L'articolo Japan Approves Record High Military Budget proviene da InsideOver.

After Shinzo Abe’s surprising resignation, Japan has found his successor. The country’s governing party, LDP, recently voted in favor of Yoshihide Suga as the party’s new chair. The party commands a majority in the relevant lower house of parliament, thus making the previous cabinet secretary’s election as the future Prime Minister of Japan a virtual certainty.

Who is Yoshihide Suga?

The 71-year-old former cabinet secretary, and government spokesman said he seeks to continue Abe’s policies. Shinzo Abe had recently announced his resignation due to health reasons.

In Monday’s vote, Suga prevailed against former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida (89 votes) with 377 votes. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who distinguished himself as a rare internal critic of Abe, obtained only 68 votes.

Suga was Abe’s right-hand man for nearly eight years as Cabinet Secretary. His win was thus considered a formality. He had previously secured the backing of influential groups within the LDP, which has governed almost continuously for decades. Due to the quid pro quo, these groups can now expect their people to receive cabinet posts from Suga.

Suga’s reputation is one of a classical, no-nonsense politician. He studied law and politics in Tokyo. However, he only became a member of parliament by the age of forty-seven. In the LDP, which is dominated by political dynasties, Suga’s rise is extraordinary but not astonishing, given his relationship with Abe. Suga comprehended how to handle the influential officials and used to disregard undesirable inquiries from journalists at his daily press conferences, all in an effort to shield PM Abe.

Japan’s Future Political Outlook

How long Suga, who is not a member of a power group within the LDP, can govern remains to be seen. However, new parliamentary elections in the near distant future, notably if Suga failed to deliver to the people and his LDP, are certainly not inconceivable.

Unlike Abe, who was driven by nationalism, Suga does not have the reputation of being an ideologue. Suga is about the implementation of concrete, pragmatic steps. Above all, he believes that the G7 country, Japan, needs a potent private sector in order to be taken seriously around the globe.

Suga has already initiated a tax practice in which individuals in the countryside can decide to pass their local taxes on to rural rather than urban communities. Suga hopes it will help villages suffering from emigration.

Unfinished Business

However, Suga also inherits unfinished business from Abe. The economy, which the latter desired to bring out of stagnation using “Abenomics,” which includes loose monetary policy, debt-financed economic stimulus programs, and the promise of reforms, has descended into a deep recession in the wake of the COVID pandemic.

While Suga intends to proceed with “Abenomics,” which has created millions of jobs in Japan, he will have to address and solve the issue of Japan’s rapidly aging society and the desertification of rural regions in the course of migration to the big cities.

Relations With China and South Korea

The world’s third-largest economy is furthermore encountering significant challenges regarding geopolitics. Relations with China, which is challenging due to island dissensions and Japan’s handling of its war history, has enhanced lately. Relations with South Korea are also being laboriously tested as a result of a trade dispute, and Tokyo and Moscow continue to clash over the Kuril Islands in the Pacific.

While Suga is highly experienced domestically, he lacks experience on the international stage, which, particularly in these times, could turn out to be a detriment to Japan. For this reason, one ought to anticipate a proclivity by Suga to pick an experienced foreign minister in his cabinet.

In general, the personnel in his cabinet will indicate whether it will be business as usual for Japan, an Abe 2.0 government, in which only the names have changed, or whether Suga is willing and capable of delivering much-needed reforms for Japan — at home and abroad.

L'articolo Yoshihide Suga Chosen by Japan’s Governing Party to Succeed PM Abe proviene da InsideOver.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe recently announced his resignation coming as a result of his recently worsening health. Abe suffers from ulcerative colitis, an inflammatory bowel disease, and he apologized to the Japanese people for failing to complete his term in office.

This is not the first time that this has happened to the former Japanese prime minister. He resigned in 2007 because of his struggles with his ulcerative colitis, a chronic condition which he has lived with since he was a teenager.

Abe returned to power in 2012 and became Japan’s longest serving prime minister as of this year. He served as President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since 2012, a ‘catch-all’ party broadly defined as being to the right of the political spectrum. The LDP’s political inclinations are closely aligned with conservatism and Japanese nationalism.

Shinzo Abe Restored Economic Growth to Japan

Two of the former prime minister’s crowning achievements are restoring economic growth and increasing spending on defense.

Following his return to power, Abe announced in his 2013 policy speech to the Diet that economic revival and ending deflation was ‘the greatest and most urgent issue’ facing Japan. “Abenomics,” the term used to describe his economic strategy, consisted of the “three arrows” (an allusion to an old Japanese story) of policy.

The first arrow meant monetary expansion aimed at achieving a 2 percent inflation target. The second referred to a flexible fiscal policy to act as an economic stimulus in the short-term, and the third arrow was a growth strategy focused on structural reform and private sector investment to achieve long-term growth. He also wanted to achieve a budget surplus.

Abe Did Not Achieve All His Economic Aims

In 2013, the Japanese Government said that its country was expected to achieve nominal GDP growth of 2.7 percent that year, exceeding real GDP growth for the first time in 16 years.

However, in the second quarter of 2014, GDP fell to an annualized 1.6 percent from July to September, which resulted in a recession that year.

By April-June 2018, Japan’s economy grew at its fastest pace since 2016 because of capital spending rising more quickly than earlier estimated, with revised Cabinet Office data showing that the economy grew by 3.0 percent during that time.

Yet by 2019, Abe failed to achieve his 2 percent inflation target.

Abe’s Government was Crippled by Scandals

Also, in January 2020 Abe was forced to delay his aim of achieving a budget surplus until 2027 before the coronavirus further impacted upon Japan’s economy. This is because of the significant debt burden facing Japan, which is more than the size of its ¥551 trillion economy, and politicians have struggled to keep it in check due to spiraling social security costs.

Abe may not have achieved his budget surplus and inflation targets, but he can be credited with restoring economic growth despite a recession in 2014.

Under the former prime minister’s watch, defense spending increased by 10 percent after years of decline, and the Self-Defense Forces’ ability to project power abroad was expanded due to a reinterpretation of the country’s constitution in 2014. Mr. Abe kept his promise to bolster the nation’s defenses.

The Former PM Has Much to be Proud of

Abe’s final days in office were haunted by a scandal that occurred in December 2019. Lower House member Tsukasa Akimoto was apprehended and left the LDP after being arrested for alleged bribery. By this point, the former prime minister’s approval ratings were suffering. His government was accused of favoritism and when the COVID-19 pandemic struck, it was accused of being slow. Abe also failed to reform Japan’s constitution.

The former prime minister will be remembered for restoring economic growth to Japan and for improving Japan’s defenses at a time when China posed an increasing threat to Tokyo. Sadly, Abe’s government became increasingly ineffective during his final days in power due to scandals and slowness. This proved how tired he became toward the end.

Regarding his economic and military achievements, Abe has a lot to be proud of.

L'articolo What is Shinzo Abe’s Legacy in Japan? proviene da InsideOver.

The Guardian reports that the Five Eyes intelligence alliance could soon be enlarged to include Japan and broadened into a strategic economic relationship that pools key strategic reserves such as critical minerals and medical supplies. News of the potential development has come from statements made by various center-right British politicians. This sentiment is strong among British Conservative MPs in particular, who are working internationally to tackle the Chinese threat to Western hegemony.

Renewed Focus on China’s Global Ambitions

The renewed focus comes as a result of the coronavirus pandemic’s exposure of the West’s various key strategic dependencies on China. Plans to increase production of rare and semi-rare materials from America, Canada and Australia in order to reduce these nations’ dependency on Chinese stocks, will be announced under Five Eyes auspices.

Critical minerals are the key components in a wide range of consumer products like mobile phones, TVs and laptops. On average, China has accounted for more than 90 percent of the worldwide production and supply of rare earths during the past decade, according to the US Geological Survey.

COVID-19 has Changed Everything

Many Conservative MPs are also keen to form an economic alliance that could compete with Beijing, especially as post-Brexit Britain looks to form new trading partnerships outside of the EU and China.

Prior to COVID-19, there were many signs that the Sino-Japanese relationship was improving. In 2019, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force conducted good will exercises with the Chinese Navy for the first time. Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan’s attendance at Emperor Naruhito’s enthronement ceremony was also significant.

However, there were also many reasons to believe that the partnership had deep defects. Tokyo was concerned about the testing of missile systems such as the CM-401 and the use of precision strike systems against medium-sized ships, naval task forces and offshore facilities.

Japan Has Many Reason to Join Five Eyes

The digital component of China’s Belt and Road initiative also concerned Japan, as the divergence of their digital economies would require businesses to duplicate and then localize their business platforms for each economy. This would have increased costs for businesses by cutting supply chains.

After the coronavirus outbreak, the Chinese Embassy confirmed that Japan attempted to help China by sending 380,000 pairs of gloves, 150,000 protective suits and 75,000 protective goggles in February. Chinese central and local governments and citizens returned the favor by donating a significant amount of medical supplies to Japan since March. Despite this good will, joining Five Eyes would provide Japan with more advantages than its current limited partnership with China.

By politically and economically expanding the Five Eyes alliance, Japan can diversify its supply chains. Earlier this year, the Japanese Government committed $2.2 billion to help domestic companies move their supply chains in general, not just in China.

According to the Japan-China Joint Opinion Survey, only 15 percent of Japanese respondents have a favorable view of China. Therefore, it could be more popular for the Japanese Government to strengthen its ties with the West.

Many Democracies Must Rethink Their Relationship to China

To be fair, the concept of the Five Eyes alliance is slightly outdated, too. The alliance was formed in 1941 after the Second World War when Japan had just been defeated by the Allied powers. Times have changed and if Tokyo joined the alliance now, it would be provided with the advantages of the Five Eyes’ signals intelligence, defense intelligence, human intelligence and geo-spatial intelligence.

Despite Edward Snowden’s revelation in 2013 that Five Eyes had been used to spy on one another’s citizens, Bruce Ferguson, the former head of New Zealand’s foreign spy agency, the Government Communications Security Bureau, told The Associated Press at the time that the alliance’s information gathering capability “is like gold.”

With China provoking other countries such as India as well, there is no reason why the alliance cannot continue to grow in size in the long-term.

The coronavirus is a warning sign for many democracies in general to change their relationship with China. Both Tokyo and Beijing have had a strained relationship caused by the former’s failure to fully acknowledge the atrocities Japan committed against China during World War Two. Despite the fact that Sino-Japanese relations were improving prior to COVID-19, it was already becoming clear that Japanese supply chains were too dependent upon China. For the sake of Japan’s security and economy, they must join Five Eyes as soon as possible.

L'articolo Why the Five Eyes Alliance Should be Expanded proviene da InsideOver.

Japan recently cancelled the purchase of a key missile defense system from the United States. It is a testimony of Japan’s new approach to its defense policy – the most significant change since World War II.

Japan’s Shifting Geopolitical Perspective

Japan is inclined to adapt to the ever-changing geopolitical challenges the world presents. Now, leading security staffers from the Japanese government have suggested that Tokyo should reserve itself the right to facilitate preemptive strikes on missile bases of adversaries such as North Korea. Even though Japan’s Minister of Defense Tarō Kōno did not officially confirm the doctrine, which is controversial under international law, he stated that “no option” would be excluded moving forward.

The latter is the diplomatic version of the agenda Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed a few weeks ago. According to him, Japan’s National Security Council will have a thorough discussion this summer about the nature of the Japanese security strategy, during which “a new direction” ought to be set and put it into practice “promptly.”

Constitutional Changes Under Consideration

It is not merely empty rhetoric, as Abe is inclined to change the Japanese constitution to implement his vision. The latter refers to Article 9 of the constitution in particular. So far, the article had been interpreted in a way that Japanese self-defence forces can only defend Japan in the event of an attack. Preemptive use of force prior to an attack is prohibited via the constitution – for now – and thus not an option.

With these constitutional shackles in places, Japan had so far focused on expanding its already viable missile defense. Part of it is six warships that use the Aegis system to detect and launch shoot down missiles in the case of an attack. On land, Patriot missiles currently act as the second line of defense.

Most recently, Japan sought to purchase the land-based system Aegis Ashore from the United States. Now, however, Minister of Defense Kōno ceased the project.

Washington’s Reaction

It is a decision that surprised Washington. After all, it is incredibly unusual for a government to suddenly announce the termination of such an extensive program that had been at the heart of Japan’s defense strategy. Not only had the current defense strategy been based on Aegis Ashore, but so too had the medium-term defense plan, which should presumably have set the course until 2023.

Even more astonishing is that the government is risking its relationship with US President Donald Trump for the move. Other factors outweighed Tokyo’s concerns about Trump’s temper. One is the strong local resistance to missile defense deployment among the Japanese people, while the staggering costs of the project is another factor. Multiple delays due to local resistances and Lockheed’s solid-state radar system SPY-7 resulted in the cost of the project, doubling to more than five billion euros.

Nevertheless: Kōno’s conclusion illustrates Japan’s concerns after decades of Chinese armament and Beijing’s unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the South China Sea and on the Indian border.

Japan Feels Threatened

The latter also strengthens Japan’s sense of threat as China increasingly aggressively claims the Senkaku Islands controlled by Japan. Japan’s air force and coast guard interfere with attempts by Chinese planes and ships into the region almost every day. Besides, Chinese submarines routinely circle the island kingdom not far from the territorial waters.

It is still an open question as to whether Abe can actually implement this change, of course. The country has one of the most modern war fleets in the world and has acquired helicopter carriers that are now to be converted into small aircraft carriers. On the one hand, the population is not yet convinced of the need for more armament and the heavily indebted nation lacks the financial means to increase the armaments budget so rapidly.

Nonetheless, in a region where China has been projecting its hegemonic ambitions ad nauseam, where North Korea is nuclear-armed, and the security interests of the United States and Japan are increasingly conflicting, Tokyo is now willing to adapt to the circumstances and flex its military muscles.

L'articolo Japan’s Vision for a new Defense Policy proviene da InsideOver.

Whoever has experienced the horror of atomic explosions will never forget it. As the personal accounts collected in this report show. Read the full report here

L'articolo We, survivors of the atomic bomb proviene da InsideOver.

Reportage / Society 30.04.2020

We, Survivors of the Atomic Bomb

Hiroshima is a name no one can forget. A name that has entered history as a result of one of the most tragic events humanity has ever experienced: the unleashing of a nuclear device against a civilian population. On 6…

Alessandro Tesei

Pierpaolo Mittica

My father immediately pushed me under a desk and covered me with his body. At that moment the thunder of an explosion enveloped us followed by a strong blast. The house shook, the windows and door were destroyed. All the furniture collapsed and the roof was blown away. When the dust settled, my father got up and pulled me out from under the objects covering the desk. I could see my father’s back bleeding profusely and turning red.

The next morning Kunihiko Bonkohara’s father went searching for his wife and daughter amid the debris of the city swept away by the blast. He turned over the charred corpses he saw in the streets. He never found them. Unfortunately Kunihiko Bonkohara’s sister and mother were among the 80,000 people that the bomb carried away instantly. Kunihiko Bonkohara survived the Hiroshima atomic bomb and is one of the few hibakusha, literally “those struck by the bomb”, who are still alive and can recount those tragic moments.

Rsaybaev Koksubai Umurtaevich has seen and heard hundreds of explosions. “Wherever I looked, wherever I turned my eyes I could see the mushrooms generated by the detonations,” recounts Rsaybaev Koksubai Umurtaevich, sprawling on his sofa. “People began to blame these terrifying devices for what was happening to them. They were getting sick, waking up every day with reddened eyes like after sleepless nights…

They were explosions of different types, almost waves of them. Sometimes, they would start when we were on the streets and we were forced to look for shelter somewhere maybe on the other side of the river, until they told us it was safe to come out. The windows of many houses were shattered, people were exasperated and the streets were permeated with a terrible smell. The contamination affected everyone. Just take a look at the cemetery and you will see. When I moved here there wasn’t even a single grave, and the nearest graveyard, was 14 kilometers away, it was very small.

L'articolo We, Survivors of the Atomic Bomb proviene da InsideOver.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, various politicians in the West have blamed China for the virus, criticizing the Southeast Asian country for not taking necessary precautions. The same judgements were also made against one of the key subjects of this pandemic era, the World Health Organization.

Criticism of the WHO

The agency is accused of being under the strong influence of Beijing’s Communist Government, a criticism mainly supported by Western countries such as the United States under Donald Trump and France under Emmanuel Macron. Despite these views one of the main political rivals of China, Shinzo Abe’s Japan, contrasted the US President and many others and showed his support for the WHO by saying: “There’s only the WHO that can serve as an international institution” against the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition to these words, Abe refrained from blaming Beijing for the pandemic, showing that his country seeks a balance within the regional political rivalry.

Abe’s Decision Not to Blame China

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s prudent politics on China was clear during the Covid-19 era. In contrast with one of his main allies, President of the United States, Donald Trump; Abe never called the Covid-19 as the “Wuhan virus” or “Chinese virus.” The same stance by the Abe government towards the World Health Organization shows that Japan seeks to improve its relations with its one of main regional rivals, China.

It is not clear if Abe wants a long term normalization between Tokyo and Beijing or it is just a temporary approach, however the sign of this rapprochement is clear in many areas. Despite its cancellation due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese President Xi Jinping was due to visit Japan to meet Abe and Emperor Naruhito. Xi’s state visit had paramount importance as it was about to become the first visit in more than 10 years. Japanese sources claimed that the visit has not been cancelled but only postponed, pointing out that global anti-China campaigns are not shifting Tokyo’s path.

Abe also showed his neutrality on China and the World Health Organization during a virtual meeting with his counterparts from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on 14th of March. During the meeting Japanese Prime Minister stressed: “Cooperation between ASEAN and countries in East Asia is key as we work to contain and bring an end to the spread of infection.”

Tokyo and Beijing’s COVID-19 Rapprochement

The improving ties between Tokyo and Beijing were shown not only by the actions of the political leaders but it is also evident in other areas. Some of the members of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party donated their salaries to China, aimed at supporting the country’s policies against the Covid-19 outbreak. On many occasions, both Southeast Asian nations helped each other by sending various medical supplies such as gloves, masks and sanitizers.

Even the usually aggressive tone between Japanese and Chinese internet users seems to be normalizing these days, leaving messages of support and conciliation on social media platforms. The deepening friendship between locals of both countries was also praised by Chinese State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a phone conversation with his Japanese counterpart Toshimitsu Motegi:

“Though miles apart, we are under the same sky,” Yi said, also not hesitating to praise Japan’s achievements during the pandemic and thanking Tokyo for the assistance.

Challenges to Resetting Sino-Japanese Ties

The examples that we mentioned above show us that there is a great chance for both Japan and China to find a common ground in many fields, which may contribute in forming a real alliance during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite the positive developments, it is also fair to say that there are also some challenges to overcome for both countries, if what they’re seeking is a long-term cooperation. During the pandemic period, Abe has been criticized for having a soft-stance against the outbreak and accused of not taking the matter seriously. Criticism against Abe caused his support to fall in opinion polls, speculating that he may face serious threats from influential political figures such as Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike.

Despite Abe’s conciliatory tone, within the LDP there are still some voices that don’t share the Japanese Prima Minister’s vision, criticizing China and the WHO. We can remember the moment when Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso slammed the Head of the WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, showing a clear contrast with Abe. The latest criticism against the Japanese government came from both of its neighboring countries, China and South Korea, when Abe made a ritual offering to Yasukuni Shrine, which is seen as a symbol of Japan’s past militarist policies which caused enormous bloodshed in China.

Seeking Consensus

The relationship between Japan and China is influenced by ‘ghosts from the past,’ which obstruct the complete normalization of ties. Despite the difficulties, both Abe and Chinese President Xi have an opportunity that most of their predecessors didn’t have.

Considering the uncertain future post-COVID-19 pandemic, both countries are aware that having more support may facilitate their political, economic and social recovery once the global crisis will come to an end. So why would this rapprochement not work if it’s profitable for both states? The answer is perhaps hidden in the length of China’s global isolation from one side and how much Abe’s status quo will last on the other, especially during the post-COVID-19 era.

L'articolo Shinzo Abe’s Support For the WHO proviene da InsideOver.

Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani recently made a two-day visit to Japan, the first visit by an Iranian leader in 19 years. The visit came amid the ongoing tension with the U.S. following the latter’s exit from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal.

What Was Discussed During Rouhani’s Visit?

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who visited Iran last June, still expressed his country’s willingness to help to defuse the tension in the Middle East, given Tokyo’s good ties with both Washington and Tehran. Abe previously failed to persuade Iran to hold talks with the U.S. In that case Tehran condemned the U.S-backed sanctions that followed American accusations that Iran had breached the JCPOA.

Japan Urged Iran To Stick With The Nuclear Deal

During Rouhani’s visit, Abe once again stressed the importance of the JCPOA, urging his Iranian counterpart to stick with their side of the agreement. After the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and decision to slap sanctions to Iran, Tehran retaliated by reducing its commitment to the nuclear pact.

“I strongly expect that Iran will fully comply with the nuclear agreement and play a constructive role for peace and stability in the region,” Abe said in his opening remarks.

Rouhani also denounced the U.S-backed embargoes that have crippled Iran’s economy, adding that he understood how vital the JCPOA was and his hopes that Japan and other countries would try their best to maintain the pact.

“The nuclear deal is an extremely important agreement, and that’s why I strongly condemn the United States’ one-sided and irrational withdrawal. We hope that Japan and other countries in the world will make efforts toward maintaining the agreement,” Rouhani stated through a translator.

A Proposal To Bypass Washington-Supported Sanctions

Before Rouhani arrived home to Iran, he revealed to journalists that Japan had offered a plan to offset sanctions, adding that Japan is keen to invest in Iran’s Chabahar Port, which has been exempted from the Washington-backed embargoes. Japan’s interest in Chabahar Port, which has direct access to the Indian Ocean, comes as no surprise, as both Abe and Rouhani had discussed this matter during Abe’s visit to Tehran last June. India is developing one part of the Chabahar region.

“The Japanese, Europeans, and others are working to bypass the sanctions, and they have suggestions and solutions in this regard, and we believe that breaking the sanctions is a national and revolutionary duty for all of us,” Rouhani said as quoted by Mehrnews.

Six European nations (Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Finland. Norway, and the Netherlands) have joined a payment mechanism called INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges ) to facilitate trade with Iran despite US-led sanctions. However, such a method is not enough in Iran’s current situation, as Iranian Ambassador to the U.N. Takht Ravanchi recently said.

Japan Stays Away From The Strait of Hormuz

Rouhani said he appreciates Japan’s decision not to join the U.S-led naval mission in the Gulf and The Strait of Hormuz, despite sending a patrol vessel to monitor the situation (but not in Gulf).

“Japan has announced it will not take part in the Americans’ plans for security in the (Gulf) region … which is something we welcome” Rouhani told state T.V. Saturday.

Both Rouhani and Abe did not discuss crude oil export during the meeting, according to a Japanese official speaking to reporters. Japan formerly relied on Iran’s oil before stopped buying it to comply with the U.S. sanctions.

Meanwhile, Abe is planning to deploy an SDF (Self-Defense Forces) unit, as part of an independent mission for research and investigation into Oman’s and Yemen’s offshore areas as well as their surroundings, excluding the Strait of Hormuz. Abe stated that the SDF deployment was aimed at stabilizing the situation in the Middle East, adding that Tokyo wants to do its best to defuse the tension between the West and Tehran.

Will Japan Become A Mediator In The US-Iran Conflict?

The question about whether Japan could mediate the U.S-Iran spat has emerged since Abe’s visit to Iran last June. Japan is one of the closest allies of the U.S. and also maintains a strong relationship with Iran.

Unlike the West, Japan does not have a dark history when it comes to the Middle East. Japan’s neutrality and excellent track record in the region are distinct advantages, leading to an argument that Japan could play an intermediary role in defusing the current tension.

However, some experts say that it is unlikely for Japan to maintain neutrality in this situation despite its robust relationship with both warring countries.

“Common sense says there is little Japan can do” to defy U.S.-imposed sanctions on Iran, said Yasuyuki Matsunaga, a professor of international relations at Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Even Iranian diplomatic experts must know that Japan cannot take any measures that would go against the sanctions,” he added.

Abe received a phone call from U.S. President Donald Trump after Rouhani concluded his two-day visit to Japan, demonstrating how difficult it is for Iran not to doubt Japan’s role as a neutral mediator that could be neutral toward both sides in the ongoing dispute.

L'articolo Can Japan Be An Effective Mediator In The Washington-Tehran Conflict? proviene da InsideOver.