The European Council is meeting again from December 10 to 11 and tensions with Turkey will be at the top of the agenda. In particular, the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean as well as the European policy towards Turkey can be found at the top of the External Relations agenda of the summit.

EU leaders will discuss possible responses against Turkish provocative actions in the East Mediterranean region over the last few months, as per the conclusions of the previous European Council in October. Despite speculation about the potential EU reaction, what has been gathering even more attention lately is the ongoing escalation between France and Turkey.

Tensions between France and Turkey have not only come via traditional diplomatic means, but also on a personal level between Emmanuel Macron and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The harsh rhetoric lobbed between Erdogan and Macron and personal verbal attacks indicate that Ankara and Paris are bracing for a clash, with potential domestic and international impacts on the political and security landscape.

From les Gilets Jaunes to Erdogan’s Red Vests

In late October, Erdogan bluntly criticized the French President and urged Turkish people to boycott French products, as the tension between the two countries rises. Paris has protested Turkish unilateral actions in the Eastern Mediterranean and candidly taken the side of Athens with regards to the ongoing Greek-Turkish disputes.

At the same time Macron’s strategy to deter radical Islam within France through the closure of Islamist associations, prosecution of suspicious individuals, targeted home searches and constant monitoring of social media content has further angered the Turkish President and given him leverage for directing anger at France and Macron.

This time, Erdogan has been even more aggressive in his comments, calling Macron a dangerous burden for France and advising the French people to get rid of this “trouble” soon. Erdogan also stated that the Yellow Vests  — the famous Gilets Jaunes movement which is seeking economic reforms in France through popular protests — could promptly turn to “Red Vests”, implying that Ankara is able to mobilize thousands of Turkish and Turkish-supporting people within the French territory to cause significant disruption in the country via massive protests.

Once again Erdogan has played the neo-Ottoman card, emphasizing that the self-proclaimed Turkish position as a leading power in the Muslim world globally can be employed to shift the political balance and the security apparatus of other countries.

Macron’s Response and Competing Interests Overseas

The French President has chosen to be careful in his response, highlighting that the mutual respect should be a fundamental part of the relations between two countries. He totally condemned the use of personal insults against the head of a sovereign state.

Meanwhile, Macron’s reforms to underscore the secular character of the country are taking place in France, in a major state-coordinated effort to distinguish religion from politics. Macron has publicly endorsed and personally announced this campaign, being targeted by his critics — and especially by Turkey — for allegedly adopting a discriminatory policy against the Muslim community of France.

While Erdogan is threatening that Ankara could directly meddle into the domestic affairs of France, a much more tangible Turkish interference is possible in some traditional French strongholds across Africa. Despite the universal disapproval of the colonial legacy of the major powers of the past, one cannot question that Paris still holds a prominent role in the political, security and economic developments of the Economic Community of West African States – or ECOWAS.

Turkey has been gradually and methodically building up its presence and expanding its influence in several states of West Africa and the Sahel. As the political and security challenges in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are multiplying, France is consolidating its military operations accordingly; in the meantime Turkey is reshaping its role in the region, emerging as an alternative power to the French presence, which a considerable number of the nationals from the respective countries, occasionally blame for their long-term grievances.

An unpredictable — yet promising — strategy for Turkey would be to combine well-tested soft power methods such as sending humanitarian aid to countries in need across the region, with the deployment of unconventional means, like giving covert support to radical militias that undermine the French efforts for security.

While Ankara’s influence in the Sahel can by no means be compared to the Turkish footprint in Libya, Erdogan’s aspirations are limitless. It is clear he is willing to internationalize the Turkish-French standoff, spanning from the heart of Paris to the mainland of West Africa, where crucial French interests are at stake.

Germany is Unlikely to Stand up to Turkey

Returning to the EU developments, it should be expected that France will escalate pressure against Turkey this week as we approach the European Council meeting. Paris will call for decisive action against Turkey, focusing on the unilateral unauthorized Turkish activity in the Eastern Mediterranean and hoping that the EU will finally impose some substantial sanctions on Ankara and will implement a stricter policy; however apart from Greece and Cyprus — the EU member states who are most affected by the Turkish recent actions in the Eastern Mediterranean — the rest of the European powers are not expected to make any essential changes to the stance they have adopted so far.

With regards to sanctions the most favorable plausible scenario for France, Greece and Cyprus would be an arms embargo on Turkey from the EU, a step that would immediately and drastically undermine the most important factor of the Turkish Foreign Policy: the capability and battle readiness of the Turkish Armed Forces.

Even though Germany has mentioned in the past that sanctions would be discussed if Ankara kept not complying with the EU calls, the possibility of a German agreement on substantial sanctions should be ruled out. On the contrary, as Germany is about to complete its six-month presidency of the EU Council, there will likely be a major effort — even if it prompts a public disagreement with France — to block any serious action against Turkey, underscoring the German approach since the tensions started in the Eastern Mediterranean in July.

L'articolo France and Turkey Brace for Clash Ahead of European Council Meeting proviene da InsideOver.

December has not started off well for French President Emmanuel Macron. During a televised interview with the online portal Brut, he denied that many of his proposed reforms to tackle Islamism are designed to eradicate France’s freedoms, calling such claims “a big lie.”

Macron added that “we are not Hungary or Turkey,” hours after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called the French leader “trouble” and urged French voters to “get rid of him as soon as possible.”

The accusations emerged after some commentaries in the English-speaking media accused Macron of targeting all Muslims in response to a spate of attacks in the last few weeks attributed to violent Islamists.

Macron Denies Picking on Muslims

Macron denies that he is singling out Muslims and insisted that politics and religion should always be separate in French society. It comes at a time when France is also dealing with increasing racial tensions and social strife.

Tensions are also brewing in France as a result of the police beating of black music producer Michel Zecler, which resulted in four police officers being charged.

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin announced after the attack that he would completely rewrite a draft of the new security law that the French President intends to push through the National Assembly.

The original security legislation was designed to curb the right to film police officers in action after large protests at the end of November drew 133,000 people nationwide, and 46,000 in Paris alone.

A provision in the draft law referred to as Article 24, an essential measure in Macron’s plan to court right-wing voters by being tougher on law and order ahead of his anticipated 2022 re-election bid, had sparked fury among the media and the left flank of his own party.

Article 24 made it a crime – punishable by a year in prison and a €45,000 fine – to share images of the police with an “obvious intention to cause harm,” such as demanding violence.

New Security Bill Would Give Police Officers More Protection

However, the aim of the broader security bill is to provide better protection for police officers.

Though many view this security legislation as a cynical attempt to win right-wing voters, there is nothing wrong with its purpose. In an age of social media and smartphones, it is easy to undermine police officers who are trying to do their job by filming them and exposing them on the internet, even if certain footage captures them acting within the parameters of the law.

Of course, there are times when the police can break the law and smartphones can be a useful way to capture officers who are engaging in police brutality. Yet Article 24 does not prevent people from filming police officers altogether, and there is a public interest to ensure that the police respect the laws of the nation that they have been entrusted to uphold.

Macron is Trying to Defend French Values

Regarding Macron’s anti-Islamist bill — as I wrote earlier this year — local officials will be provided extra legal power to tackle extremism while money will be invested in education. This is particularly aimed at emphasizing positive and moderate aspects of Islamic culture and civilization. The bill will also focus on combating other social problems such as housing and poverty that feed into extremism. This law does not intend to segregate Muslims, and in fact it is an attempt by the French President to protect France’s values like freedom of speech and the rights of French citizens. It also aims to prevent Islamic extremism in France.

The only disappointing outcome of the French President’s anti-Islamist law is that many European nations have not jumped to Macron’s defense in response to authoritarian leaders like Erdoğan who have publicly condemned the French Government. Macron has set an example here that many Western nations should follow and they should be defending him.

These laws will be good for France in the long-term. They will uphold the rule of law and curb the rise of Islamic extremism at a time when the number of terrorist attacks in the country has increased since the last decade. If Macron wants to capitalize upon his support among conservative voters and do what is best for all French citizens he must stick to his convictions.

L'articolo Macron Calls Claims He’s Eroding France’s Freedoms ‘a Big Lie’ proviene da InsideOver.

Five-member nations of NATO (France, Germany, Greece, the UK and Italy) have recently agreed to build a next-generation helicopter to replace the existing fleet starting in 2035. The news was announced on November 19 in a statement from the alliance.

NATO’s Next-Generation Rotorcraft Capability Program

Each participating country signed a letter of intent (LoI) to participate in the program which is called the Next-Generation Rotorcraft Capability (NGRC) program. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) is due to be signed in early 2022, and the collaboration is open to all the alliance’s members including others who wish to join on.

This collaboration comes amid the US military’s effort to develop its new medium-multirole aircraft through the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) competition, set to be completed by the end of 2020. 

The FLRAA will boost survival, air assault, and lethal capabilities suitable for Multi-Domain Operations in a theater such as the Indo Pacific, the US Army official website stated.

NATO’s Helicopter Fleet Will be out of Service Soon

The helicopter project indicates how the alliance urgently needs new rotorcraft as most of the NATO rotorcraft will be grounded in 2035. Therefore, the new fleet is expected to replace the aging ones-despite some design modifications in the future. The news was delivered by Col. Paul Morris, assistant head of air maneuvers for the British Army, in a recent presentation.

“The analysis suggests that’s about 1,000 airframes, and that’s not including those from the United States, that will be retired in and around that period. Operational analysis, not only says that there is a requirement to replace, but there is an enduring requirement for that capability in the medium space carriage, and high proficiency profiles,” Morris said in his presentation during the Vertical Flight Society’s 76th Annual Forum & Technology Display.

Most of the NATO medium-sized helicopters have been operating for around 40 to 60 years. Meanwhile, the latest NATO medium-sized helicopter (NH90) made its maiden flight in 1995.

Split Between the US and NATO?

Brandon Weichert – a prominent national security analyst – told InsideOver that NATO should have upgraded its medium-sized helicopters a long time ago, questioning the non-binding agreement despite the need for a medium-sized helicopter.

“I also thought it was interesting that when they made the announcement, the NATO, the may have members who did it, they, they, the Americans really weren’t involved. I mean, it was, it was left open for any NATO member to sign onto this initiative eventually, but the likes of Germany spearheaded it,” Weichert said, adding that there seems to be a growing split between Europe and the US in NATO.

“The actual agreement is instead a non-binding statement of purpose as if they were making a statement hoping that the US and other powerful partners will come in and underwriting the whole process from the get-go. So it’s very interesting that I think it indicates that only that there’s a divide amongst the European side of NATO and on ourselves in the United States.” Weichert said.

He added that the UK has world-class new aircraft carriers, but it does not have a medium-sized helicopter with such a capability to put on the Queen Elizabeth. Therefore, the UK wants NATO to build helicopters to offset the cost.

France and Germany Have Different Opinions About US Role

French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe must be sovereign in defense, slamming German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s recent statement in Politico that Europe still needs to rely on US military power in the future.

“I am in complete disagreement with the opinion article published in Politico by the German defense minister,” Macron said, adding that the US will respect its allies if they are sovereign regarding their defense decisions.

France’s intention to stay away from America’s shadow is because France is one of the only nuclear powers in Europe outside Russia with an independent military. While Germany is the continent’s economic powerhouse, Berlin is not interested in investing its resources in defense, as Weichert explained.

However, France still needs US logistical support for the former’s current operations in Mali, Weichert added. While NATO still needs the US, Washington now is focusing more on China—which is one of the world’s surging economic and military powers.

In 2017, US President Donald Trump complained that 23 out of 28 NATO members had yet to pay their defense obligations. Last June, Trump decided to pull American troops out of Germany, citing that Berlin had to pay their own military costs.

Different Priorities Among NATO members

NATO members have split over which issues should be the alliance’s top priority. While Europe’s eastern side may raise concern over Russia, the continent’s Southern part tends to focus on containing the flux of migrants to tackle terrorist attacks. While the West part may worry about climate change, Russia, and China.

Greece is also involved in an ongoing spat with fellow NATO member Turkey over the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Even NATO members worry about Ankara’s closer ties with Russia after testing the latter’s S-400 defense system.

Is the New Helicopter Mainly Intended to Deter Russia?

This is the question that may come up to everyone’s mind, given Russia’s continuous effort to modernize its defense by focusing on laser and hypersonic weapons.

“I think that the medium-lift capability that they’re focusing on, because it’s pretty much every NATO rotorcraft needs to be upgraded and replaced. Still, it looks, it sounds like my read on it is they’re going to fixate on the medium-lift capability because yes, if there was something with Russia to erupt, they would need to be able to transport NATO forces, you know, rather rapidly,” Weichert said. “And the medium-lift capability allows them to do that. So yes, it does look like they’re focusing, they’re starting to say, Hey, Russia is, is a priority.”

More Comprehensive Dialog is Necessary

The alliance should narrow its gap among its members to modernize their military capabilities and discuss which issues to be prioritized first.

“Everything is too centralized. Some members are more capable than others. If you worry about Russia’s invasion, I think it is about time we have a real discussion. What country can fight against Russia’s invasion?” Weichert wrapped up the interview, adding that the Turkey issue can be one of the thorniest ones that NATO members should focus on.

L'articolo How Many NATO Members Does it Take to Build a Helicopter? proviene da InsideOver.

French President Emmanuel Macron has found himself in a fight not of his own choosing, but one that he is resolutely set to win. After two Islamist terrorist attacks within a week and a third thwarted, Macron is now in a situation that has no clear path to victory for France. 

The French Fight Against Lone Wolf Islamists

Unlike the 2011 terrorist attacks on America, the lone wolf perpetrators don’t offer a target for France to deploy its military upon. There is no foreign nation to invade, no group to rally the French against.

Instead, Macron must wage war defensively at home. Whereas the 9/11 attacks were rationalized by terrorists over America’s interference in the Middle East, the recent attacks in France were carried out as retribution over a fundamental tenet of democracy: freedom of speech.

As such, the road forward for Macron is uncertain. There is no single group to broker peace with nor are there clear objectives that can serve as a benchmark for victory. However, this much is clear: Macron will not relent in defending democratic ideals in France and that determination, perceived as stubbornness by his critics, will undermine Macron’s International ambitions at a time when his state has been focused on leveraging soft power, particularly in the Middle East. 

As the US left a power vacuum in the region, and in truth, the entire world, powers such as France, Germany, and Russia have stepped in to become leading power brokers. They’ve rushed into developments Syria, Libya, Lebanon, and Greece to put their weight behind factions that will benefit their own national interests.

The moment may now be short-lived for Paris, which will face setbacks in the region as a result of Macron’s defense of France and democracy. Macron’s heavy-fisted reaction and strongly-worded comments follow immediately on the heels of a larger plan by the president to stop the fracturing of French society due to Islamic communities that have sprung up.

Macron: ‘It’s Very Clear That France is Under Attack’

At the beginning of October, Macron outlined his plan for fighting what he termed “Islamic separatism.” Macron’s idea was hatched after a stabbing attack by Islamic terrorists outside the former Charlie Hebdo offices in September. The event kicked off a new mission for Macron in which he vowed to confront the issue head on.

His solution is to crackdown on illegal Islamic education institutions. Notably, imams will no longer be able to train overseas, thereby theoretically limiting the importation of Islamic extremism. 

“The goal of training and promoting in France a generation of Imams and intellectuals who defend an Islam fully compatible with the values of the Republic is a necessity,” Macron said.

Had that been all that happened, Macron’s stature among Arab states, although diminished, would likely have still allowed him to continue acting as a regional power broker. However, the two attacks that followed – the beheading of a teacher and recent Church attack in Nice – goaded  Macron into coming down harder.

 “It’s very clear that France is under attack. If we are attacked, it is because of our values, our values of freedom and our desires not to yield to terrorism.”

Democracy Versus Islamism

The result of Macron’s words and actions against Islamic institutions in France is that democracy is now pitted against fundamentalist Islam as two ideals that are incompatible. Whereas France welcomes the freedom of speech and has no law against blasphemy, it is widely condemned by Arab states. In particular, depictions and caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad are forbidden. 

The confrontation was further exacerbated when Turkish President Recep Erdogan stepped into the ring to condemn Macron’s defense of the cartoons and the freedom of speech, prompting cartoonists to illustrate Erdogan in unflattering ways.

Democracy and the Middle East have historically been incompatible. Even in Tunisia, one of the rare successes from the Arab Spring protests, blasphemy is not legally forbidden, but laws on the books still prohibit speech that could be construed as “disturbing the public order.” 

The Qur’an, unlike Christianity’s New Testament, prescribes a legal structure to govern society. Beyond this, the Haddith, or teachings of Prophet Muhammed, outlaw visual depictions among other rules. Such teachings were even construed to forbid television, which didn’t become mainstream in Saudi Arabia until the 1960s.

With these points considered, Macron has incited a large population of the world’s population that view his words and actions as an attack on their religion. In a war over ideals, victory is never cut and dried so easily.

Conflict of Ideologies

While a number of Arab states including Turkey have condemned the terrorist attacks in France, they will not concede Paris’ power to enforce the freedom of speech.

This brings up the issue of sovereignty. Erdogan wants the EU to act against France, but doing so would be forcing Paris to change its laws on the whims of a foreign state and a single religion. 

The core issue is an “ideology which claims its own laws should be superior to those of the republic,” Macron said before the most recent attacks. 

Macron, while in the right to defend the sovereignty of his nation and the ideals of democracy, has lost goodwill earned in the Middle East. As a result, other powers such as Russia and Germany will look more lucrative when regional issues demand an outside response.

The War At Home

At home in France, Macron has deployed an increased security presence to protect schools and churches. More attacks, or at the very least, attempts, should be expected.

Consequently, the game of tit-for-tat will continue. Muslims in France have begun protesting. Macron could limiting the number of refugees taken in from the Middle East, which would be a logical next step.

France has the support of other European states, a fact that could see terrorism spill over across borders. Macron’s fight against Islamic extremism could also have political implications. While the French election is still over a year away, Marine Le Pen, his former opponent, is known for taking a harder stand against terrorism. A poll revealed the French trust her more than Macron, BBC News reported.

Division Benefits No One

If attacks continue and Macron can’t defend his people, Le Pen could successfully challenge him for his office during the election. Macron is most certainly gambling with not only his political future, but also France’s stature in the international community by maintaining a hard line against Islamic extremism. For him to be successful, he will have to convince Arab states that French laws are under the nation’s own sovereignty to write and protect.

Arab states condemning the terrorist attacks is not enough to quell the flareup. They must end the rhetoric that Shariah law extends beyond the Arab world. This line of messaging, that Paris should not allow blasphemy, engenders more Islamophobia and backlash against Muslims and Arabs in general.

This xenophobia is what gave rise to populist leaders such as American President Donald Trump, who has championed nationalism and sowed division across not only the US, but the world. Division and focusing on differences, whether skin tone or laws governing society, only leads to more conflict, something the Middle East does not need more of.

L'articolo No Winning For Macron In Fight Against Islamic Extremism proviene da InsideOver.

After the latest radical Islamic terrorist attack, the French are calling for more toughness in the fight against Islamism. President Emmanuel Macron is under pressure.

An Act of Terror to Intimidate Teachers and Free Speech

The “fatwa against a teacher,” as Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin puts it, led to the murder of history teacher Samuel Paty after he showed a depiction of the Prophet Muhammad.

However, his killing was also intended to intimidate almost a million French teachers who face similar tensions and religion-related debates every day.

Although the brutal execution did not deliver the national unity that Macron had evoked on the evening of the attack, one can observe a noticeable turnaround in public opinion. The calls for more rigor in the fight against radical Islamism are getting louder.

French Right Demands “Arms Instead of Tears”

The conservative and far-right opposition accuses Macron of a lack of determination. The “politics of candles” must now be over, said Marine Le Pen, head of the right-wing populist Rassemblement National. “Arms instead of tears,” demanded Bruno Retailleau, who wants to position himself as a conservatives candidate for the 2022 presidential elections.

Even Macron himself chose a new tone of voice after the attack, saying “fear has to change sides.” He also added that “Islamists in our country will no longer sleep peacefully in the future.” After this declaration of war from the Élysée, the government must deliver now.

Turning Words into Action

A week ago French police launched a large-scale strike against suspected Islamist milieus, including 40 house searches. Interior Minister Darmanin himself stressed on the radio that the house searches were “not necessarily connected” to the fatwa against the teacher, but that they had a clear message: “Not a minute’s delay for the enemies of the republic.”

On Tuesday afternoon last week, Macron paid a demonstrative visit to the Bobigny Prefecture in the problematic neighborhood of Seine-Saint-Denis. There he asked about the strategy and successes in the fight against radical Islamism.

In the meantime, Darmanin announced the closure of the Pantin mosque which is located in a Paris suburb. The mosque’s imam is said to have distributed the video in which the father of one of the victim’s students called for violence.

Links to the Migration and Refugee Debate

France is politically divided when it comes to combining migration issues with the fight against terrorism. The last two perpetrators were immigrants, but most Islamic terrorism perpetrators in France in recent years were French citizens with Arab roots who grew up in France.

Interior Minister Darmanin has asked the Security Council to include migration and unaccompanied minors on the acute action plan. When he took office in July, he has requested the list of those who threatened Islam who do not have a regular residence permit. Allegedly it took weeks to get it. In addition, however, there are the usual problems with deportations, such as an OK from the home country, which traditionally proves to be complicated.

Darmanin also seeks to dissolve various organizations. These include the CCIF (Collectif contre l’islamophobie en France), an association that officially fights against Islamophobia in France but has been extremely successful in spreading the image of an Islamophobic France abroad.

Cracking Down on the ‘Uberization of Terrorism’

The latest attack made the role of social networks particularly evident. Experts speak of an “uberization of terrorism,” a relocation of terrorist networks to the Internet, with which the security authorities have not kept pace. The results are laws that do not address Islamic terror sufficiently. Despite the new laws that Macron announced a few weeks ago against radical Islam, there is now a controversial debate about how much rights France wants to give up in the fight against terror.

For his words and his strategy, Macron is now referred to in radical circles in France as the “enemy of Islam.” The Arabic-language television station Al Jazeera spoke of Macron’s “crusade” motivated by the French president taking advantage of Islam being “in a global crisis.” Moreover, the Islamic world is now calling for a boycott of French goods after Macron promised France would not renounce the caricatures of Mohammed.

Macron is thus feeling pressure from all sides. Parts of the public seek a zero-tolerance policy against Islam in France while others want a more tolerant approach; with the elections of 2022 looming, Macron will need to find a balance between civil liberties and the protection of the French people, who have suffered the violence of Islamism like no other European nation.

L'articolo France’s Fight Against Islamic Terrorism proviene da InsideOver.

On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new law against religious “separatism” intended to free Islam in France from “foreign influences.” These new measures are intended to “defend the republic and its values” from radical Islamism and terrorism according to the President.

How Will the New Law Work?

The French President offered a carrot-and-stick approach: local officials will be provided extra legal power to tackle extremism while money will be invested in education – particularly emphasizing positive and moderate aspects of Islamic culture and civilization – and to combat other social problems such as housing and poverty.

Macron’s speech was only a broad outline of measures yet to come, which he said will be drawn up in the next two weeks for a law to be presented in December.

Other measures include placing mosques under greater control and requiring that imams are trained and certified in France.

Macron’s New Law Makes Sense Domestically

From a domestic point of view, it is understandable why the French President intends to implement this long-awaited legislation. Radical Islamism has been an issue in France since 2012. During that year, three horrific shootings took place in Toulouse and police killed the man who was behind those attacks: an al-Qaeda loyalist called Mohamed Merah.

Fourteen people have recently gone on trial over the deadly attack on the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, which triggered a wave of violence by Islamic State across Europe. The defendants are accused of being accomplices to the attacks in January 2015, which also targeted a policewoman and a Jewish supermarket. This proves that the timing of the French President’s latest legislation is no coincidence.

The legislation is also proving to be popular in France. An Odoxa-Dentsu poll this month suggests that more than three-quarters of respondents supported anti-separatism legislation, even though more than half worried it might deepen divisions within France.

Furthermore, what is empowering the French Government’s argument is another recent survey conducted by IFOP, which found that some 74 percent of Muslims under 25 are more loyal to their faith than the French Republic. If these poll results are accurate, then it proves that the threat of radical Islamism has not been exaggerated by Macron.

Macron’s Proposed Law Has Angered Turkey

However, the new legislation has sparked controversy in Turkey at a time when relations between Ankara and Paris have reached a new low. The Turkish Foreign Ministry has slammed Macron’s “Islamic separatism” remarks for being what they call a distorted approach. They added that the law will crack down on migrant communities in France through the establishment of fabricated pretexts.

It has certainly been a dramatic year for the relationship between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his French counterpart for the following reasons. Firstly, both leaders clashed over a French ship that was carrying out checks on a Turkish vessel off the coast of Libya that was suspected of breaking a UN arms embargo to the country.

In September, Macron attempted to intervene in the standoff between Greece and Cyprus on one side and Turkey on the other over hydrocarbon resources and naval influence in the eastern Mediterranean. The French increased their military presence in the region after naval exercises by Athens and Ankara in August. The French leader’s actions provoked Erdoğan into issuing Macron with a warning to “back off.” The situation has also caused the EU to threaten Turkey with sanctions.

The Start of a Turkish-French Cold War?

In Macron’s defense, his intention is probably not to provoke Turkey further with his new anti-extremism laws, but his timing is poor given the recent history between Ankara and Paris.

Either way, as Muhittin Ataman writes for the Daily Sabah, France has been pursuing a policy of isolating Turkey by forming an alliance with countries like Israel and Greece designed to suppress Erdoğan’s activities in the eastern Mediterranean. Paris has also been focused on working to restrict Ankara’s influence in the Middle East and North Africa. It is no wonder the Turkish President is sensitive to his French counterpart’s new anti-extremism legislation as he no doubt believes that one hidden intention behind it is to isolate Erdoğan even further.

Domestically, Macron’s new legislation makes sense and it will be interesting to see if other European nations follow his lead. Equally, Erdoğan will use it as political capital to rally support for his tough stance toward the French Government. The French President’s proposed law could be interpreted as another unintended step to provoke a potential cold war between France and Turkey.

L'articolo Will Macron’s New Laws Against Islamism Alienate Turkey Even Further? proviene da InsideOver.

French President Emmanuel Macron has announced new legislative aiming to tackle religious separatism, a calling card of radical Islam. It has the potential to transform France.

Macron’s Highly Anticipated Speech Against ‘Radical Islam’

It was one of the most eagerly anticipated speeches in Macron’s tenure. Its topic was nothing short of a paradigm shift towards radical Islamism and a commitment to fighting against religious parallel societies, which are the breeding ground for terrorism. It will likely mark a turning point and the beginning of the end of the French denial of reality in the fight against what Macron – without any euphemisms – labels “radical Islam.”

Macron’s government had long been concerned about signs of radicalization within French Muslim communities. Some Muslim men’s refusal to shake hands with women, swimming pools which provide men and women alternate time slots, and the instruction to girls aged four and over to wear a full-face veil are all measures which have been viewed as highly detrimental by many within Macron’s government. This is particularly the case since France follows a strict form of secularism, a strict separation of religion and public life. The principle was enshrined in French law in 1905 after a violent dispute with the Catholic Church.

This secularism, however, is not appreciated by everyone. According to a 2016 Ifop Institute poll, almost one-third of French Muslims are putting Sharia law above the republic’s laws, a development Macron rightly described as “unacceptable”. These tendencies have remained a solemn issue for the country.

New Laws Will Tackle Religious ‘Separatism’

The laws announced on Friday during Macron’s speech are supposed to tackle religious “separatism”. When asked, Macron admitted that the new law would primarily target the radical forms of Islam. After all, other religion’s detrimental excesses had so far been “marginal phenomena,” according to the French President.

Macron repeatedly used the word “wake-up call” in his one-hour speech and appealed to all French people to be vigilant and stand united against those who sought to divide the country. He called for a society-wide fight against Islamist fanaticism, which Macron expressly referred to as a “political ideology”.

For years, the problem of radical Islam in France has been controversial throughout all social classes. Macron’s task to find the right words was thus tricky. But he managed. He neither fell into the trap of right-wing populists and fascists, who consider Islam as a whole to be incompatible with France’s values nor into that of leftist ideologues who brand any criticism of Islam as Islamophobia.

Long Overdue Legislation

Instead, Macron announced a far-reaching, coherent, and long overdue legislation. From the financing of mosques, the training of imams, the far-reaching control of religiously influenced cultural and sports clubs, and the general ban on home tuition, Islamist ideologues, who have been indoctrinating young people for too long, ought to be stopped with the changes.

It is no exaggeration to describe Macron’s speech as historical and the announced law against religious separatism as seminal. Historical because, for the first time, a French president described France’s problems with radical Islamism as the result of a complex historical mixture, namely a post-colonial society that has not fully dealt with its historical traumas such as the Algerian war.

At the same time, he named the French Republic’s failure by blaming France for creating separatism in the first place. France has allowed a “ghettoization,” a separation of entire population groups according to origin and social milieu, thereby creating the infamous banlieue neighborhoods.

Macron’s Request: ‘Islam of the Enlightenment’

The most drastic measure of the law is the abolition of the right to homeschooling. This affects around 50,000 French students who do not attend a state or a privately organized but state-recognized school. According to the Ministry of Education, their share is negligible at 0.5 percent, but it has increased by 10,000 in one year. In the future, distance learning should only be possible for “strictly medical reasons.”

Above all, however, attempts to prevent foreign influence in the financing and training of imams in France. The Muslim representatives now must submit rules for certified imam training within the next six months. Shortly before these announcements, Macron had received the representatives of all the country’s major religions in the Élysée Palace.

Finally, Macron pleaded for an “Islam of the Enlightenment.” France must develop into an academic center of excellence for Islamic culture, history, and religion. He announced ten million euros for the Fondation de l’Islam de France and the creation of a scientific institute for Islamic studies.

Macron concluded his speech by stating that radical Islam, which has grown over decades and has been responsible for 250 killings in France since 2015, will not be eradicated in a few days but will still be ultimately defeated – which ought to be an excellent message for the French and a wake-up call for many European nations.

L'articolo Ça Suffit: Macron’s Historic Plan to Fight Radical Islam proviene da InsideOver.

Tensions between French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have been escalating since June following an incident involving a French frigate near the coast of Libya. The ship was there to enforce a NATO arms embargo and tried to search a cargo ship. However, it was targeted by Turkish naval vessels which escorted the ship away, according to Paris. Ankara said the cargo ship was carrying humanitarian aid.

The situation has only gotten worse since the incident, as Macron has sent warships to the Aegean Sea in case Erdoğan does not withdraw his naval forces from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Greece is also planning to double its western territorial waters with Italy to 12 nautical miles, a right provided under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, an agreement which Turkey has not signed up to.

Erdoğan Calls Macron ‘Greedy and Incompetent’

EU member states agreed on a list of sanctions against the Turkish Government in case they fail to deescalate tensions in the region. Considering France is one of the loudest advocates for sanctions against Turkey, Erdoğan responded by calling Macron “greedy and incompetent.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said on Saturday said that the EU’s actions could even spark a war.

Brussels has responded by saying that it will implement further measures if Ankara does not comply with the first set of sanctions.

Macron is Worsening Tensions with Turkey

Macron is failing to reduce tensions between himself and the Turkish leader, which is why Germany would like to mediate the Turkish-Greek dispute over the Mediterranean. If the French leader is not careful, he could lose the wider strategic battle that he has been pursuing with Erdoğan since June.

The French President has the capacity to regain the initiative from his Turkish counterpart, but that largely depends upon his success in ending tensions in Libya.

Last week, Macron invited Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj of Libya’s UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) to visit Paris.

Can Macron Restore Peace to Libya?

Sarraj accepted France’s invitation because it represents a chance to implement a new ceasefire alongside fresh elections. It is also a chance for Libya to resume its oil production.

Yet Macron’s initiative faces two obstacles. Any settlement in Libya depends upon Sarraj receiving Erdoğan’s approval and support.

The Turkish President has the upper hand in the Libyan conflict and he would like to occupy the strategic city of Sirte that provides the Turks with a gateway to the ports of Sidra, Ras Lanuf, Marsa al-Brega and Zuwetina, where three gas conduits and 11 oil pipelines reach the Mediterranean coast.

Considering the Turkish leader has nothing but disdain toward Macron, why would he support a peace initiative led by his French rival?

Erdoğan Has Outflanked Macron in the Middle East

Also, other key players like Russia would need to be involved in the discussions. Due to a lack of US involvement in the Libyan conflict, Moscow and Ankara have emerged as the main rivals for control over the war-torn country. Russia is also interested in controlling Sirte and that is why the Libyan war cannot end until Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdoğan have resolved their differences over Sirte.

If Macron, who has been a vocal critic of Sarraj’s GNA, can also persuade the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Khalifa Haftar to support a ceasefire, it would provide France with a huge strategic advantage over both Turkey and Russia.

Nonetheless, Macron faces other strategic battles with Erdoğan beyond Libya. The French President visited Lebanon this week to show that he is interested in pursuing political reform there, but French attempts to influence Middle Eastern politics will be met by resistance from Turkey, Russia and Iran. The Russian-Iranian-Turkish triumvirate is working closely to squeeze US influence out of Syria and without wider NATO support, Macron cannot hope to take on this triumvirate on his own.

The Turkish President seems to be winning a strategic battle with Macron, whether that is in Greece or the rest of the Middle East. Macron has made tensions over the Mediterranean worse and he cannot afford to risk war with Turkey, which the latter has proposed in response to EU sanctions.

There is still a chance Macron could score a win in helping Libya, but by and large, he cannot defeat Turkey and should take steps to deescalate his confrontation with Ankara.

L'articolo Is Macron Losing His Strategic Battle with Erdogan? proviene da InsideOver.

French President Emmanuel Macron took to Twitter recently following a phone call with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. It came as Abbas slammed the recent deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to normalize relations, a move widely praised by many Western governments, including Paris.

Macron’s Growing Role

The French leader has been playing an active role in Middle Eastern politics throughout his presidency so far. Last year, he was instrumental in drawing up a four-point plan to pave the way for replacing Barack Obama’s 2015 Iran Deal with a new one, as US President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact in 2018.

He also hosted the 2018 Paris summit to bring an end to the ongoing Libyan war.

Macron has also been calling for international aid to Lebanon to be tied to political reform following the devastating explosion in Beirut.

Macron’s Middle East Peace Efforts Haven’t Succeeded Yet

While these actions are admirable, many of the French President’s interventions in the Middle East have so far failed to produce any tangible results. However, if Macron plays his cards right in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, he may be able to secure a peaceful solution to the ongoing conflict.

Daniel Kurtzer of the Hoover Institution argues that peace is possible through people-to-people engagements, that is, activities that bring ordinary citizens together to overcome mutual mistrust and to build understanding at the grassroots level.

Last year, the Trump administration convened a workshop in Bahrain to try to mobilize support for its plans for the Middle East. Its economic plan focused on business investment and aimed to go beyond government-to-government engagement, and to try and encourage action by the Israeli and Palestinian people.

Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan is an Obstacle for Macron

Yet the issue that Macron faces is that he will have to deal with the consequences of the Middle East peace plan initiated by the US President earlier this year. Billed to as “the deal of the century,” the plan rejects a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem, proposing instead a capital on the outskirts of the city.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Israeli Government would immediately annex the Jordan Valley and West Bank settlements while pledging not to establish new settlements in areas left to the Palestinians for approximately four years. However, these plans have been delayed by the recent Israeli-UAE agreement to normalize relations.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said the suspension of the annexations “must become a definitive measure.” But the French President will have difficulty persuading the Israeli and American leaders to suspend the plan as they have both staked so much political capital on it.

Given Macron’s failure to persuade Trump to support his four-point plan for Iran, it is unlikely he will convince the US President to abandon a core element of his signature plan for the Middle East.

Macron Must Tread Carefully

The opposition of the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the United Nations to the plan has failed to strengthen the Palestinians’ hands during the aftermath of the peace deal, as the US and Israel have ignored all of them. This does not bode well for Macron’s attempt to rescue international efforts to secure peace in Palestine.

The plan also specifies that Palestine must commit itself to total demilitarization and abandonment of any legal action against Israel and the US. As long as the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) enjoys the support of Turkey and Iran, they will feel emboldened to resist Israel’s attempt to end their military activities.

Although Macron has a diplomatic relationship with Iran, tensions between Ankara and Paris have escalated recently.

Senior Iranian officials have expressed an interest in destroying Israel in the past, so they will not support a peaceful solution that involves Jerusalem. Macron cannot achieve peace until Turkey and Iran end their tensions with Israel, which have only worsened as a result of the Israeli-UAE agreement.

Like with many of Macron’s attempts to intervene in the Middle East, the French President will encounter tremendous obstacles in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He also risks alienating the support of two of France’s closest allies. The French leader should tread carefully if he is serious about defending Palestinian sovereignty.

L'articolo Could a Macron-led Middle East Peace Process Work? proviene da InsideOver.

French President Emmanuel Macron shook up his government on Friday, July 3 in the first of what is likely to be many changes in Parisian politics. After former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe tendered his resignation Friday morning, Macron appointed Jean Castex, a civil servant who has led France’s COVID-19 reopening efforts, as France 24 reported.

Getting Rid of Icarus

Philippe’s departure was unexpected because by every metric his popularity among French voters had been surging. In truth, it may have been an Icarus situation whereby Philippe gained too much popularity too quickly and thus caused Macron to feel threatened. In Paris, there can be only one true leader and since taking office, Macron has worked to establish France as a major player in international politics.

Macron “is very self-confident, he doesn’t want to be put in the shade by anybody,’’ said Gerald Grunberg, an emeritus political scientist at Sciences Po university, according to the New York Times. “He doesn’t want to be the president of Edouard Philippe’s government.”

Why Did Macron Make His Decision?

The power wielded by Macron is his and his alone, which likely factored into his decision-making in releasing Philippe. The former premier served since May 2017 and recently won the mayoral election in his hometown of Le Havre. 

In an interview Thursday, Macron said he intends to forge a “new path” in order to “reinvent” France during his remaining time in office. 

“I will have choices to make to lead the new way,” Mr. Macron said, adding “there will be a new team.”

What he actually means is that it is time for him to reignite the Republic on the Move (LREM) party that suffered heavy losses at the polls last week. The Greens party claimed major victories in historically conservative and socialist cities including Lyon, Bordeaux, and Strasbourg, and helped fend off the LREM from controlling Paris and Marseille.

A Bad Night for Elections

If the local elections were a referendum on Macron’s tenure, he failed miserably. With The Greens now wielding more control, the president’s government is now pressured to alter course to accommodate a new voter sentiment by focusing on environmental issues. 

Phillippe, one of the few candidates Macron could have considered a personal victory, was promptly sacked as punishment. The former prime minister enjoyed a 58% approval rating, 20 points more than Macron, Deutsche Welle reported. His popularity is high enough that some observers question whether he could challenge Macron in 2022 for president.

Regardless of whether Philippe decides to seek higher office—and it’s clear the public support is there—Macron faces indisputable challenges for the remainder of his term. Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, Macron was tasked with calming economic anxiety that led to the Yellow Jacket protests. Those concerns have not dissipated, only been placed on pause while the world focuses on conquering COVID-19.

If anything, the virus has exacerbated the underlying economic dissatisfaction. The president has two years to develop a solution, to prove to voters he is still the right leader for France. This is where Castex comes into the equation.

Another Conservative

Castex is an intriguing choice to fill the office because on paper, he strongly resembles Philippe. Like his predecessor, Castex is a a conservative and former member of the Republicans party. If Macron learned anything from The Greens election sweep last week, it was not that he should incorporate liberal politicians into his government. 

Instead, Macron is content with another conservative while somehow hoping for different results. The difference between the two is that Castex is more willing to open the pocket book and spend what needs to be spent to accomplish Macron’s economic goals, as the New York Times reported.

“People like Edouard Philippe are very attached to balanced budgets,” said Gerald Grunberg, professor emeritus of political science at Sciences Po university. “Macron is not like that.”

‘I’m Here Seeking Results’

Castex is also a relative unknown among Parisian politics despite an elite background. He served in former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government, but aside from that, he is predominantly associated with ushering France out of the COVID-19 crisis, POLITICO reported.

“I’m not here seeking the spotlight, I’m here seeking results,” Castex said in his first interview after taking over. “Until today I wasn’t a national politician.”

In Castex, Macron has a willing deputy to do his bidding without question, to carry out his policies without interference and importantly, without taking credit. In appointing Castex, Macron resisted appointing a leftist prime minister or a woman, both of which could have steered Paris in another direction.

Instead, Macron is doubling down with another right-wing premier while exiling a massively popular, experienced political figure who could mount a campaign of his own in 2022. However, the president’s strategy should become clearer in the coming week as he fills other key cabinet positions.

On the surface, Castex looks like a continuation of Philippe and not at all like the “reinvention” Macron promised. If Castex can successfully help Macron rebuild France’s economy and reforge relations with cities lost in the recent local elections, then perhaps the choice will turn out to have been an effective one.

L'articolo Is Macron’s Appointment of a New Prime Minister the Right Move? proviene da InsideOver.