As the world continues to grapple with coronavirus, another mysterious disease is silently infecting and killing villagers in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin. According to an investigation by The Guardian, the main symptoms of the disease – which one local leader claimed has killed 2000 people since 2014 include bleeding from the mouth and nose and intense yellowing of the eyes and palms.

Disease X

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has named it “Disease X,” a name given to a mysterious pathogen capable of spreading and wreaking havoc across the world.

When Abdi Khadar’s eyes and palms started turning yellow, nobody saw it as a cause for alarm. Soon he started bleeding from his nose and mouth with his body getting swollen. This was followed by a strong fever that made him frail eventually leading to his death. Many of Khadar’s neighbours have claimed experiencing similar symptoms .

Although the cause of the disease is not yet known, there are growing speculations that Poly-GCL, a partly state-owned Chinese company could be responsible. The company is currently engaged in oil and gas prospects in the Ogaden Basin where it has been developing the Calub and Hilala fields since 2013 when it signed a production sharing deal with the Ethiopian government.

Chinese Energy Company Spilling Toxic Waste May Be to Blame

An engineer who worked for the company for three years told the Guardian in confidence that there were regular spillages of sulphuric acid and other deadly fluids. This was reiterated by Ali Hassan Farah who claimed that “local people were dying from raw toxins spilled out of sheer carelessness.”

According to Healthline, long term exposure to toxins can cause scarring of the liver leading to a severe medical condition called Cirrhosis. Symptoms of cirrhosis occur when “the liver is unable to purify the blood, break down toxins, produce clotting proteins, and help with absorption of fats-soluble vitamins.”

Early symptoms include nose bleeds, yellow discoloration, weight loss, decreased appetite. More serious conditions that appear at an advanced stage include abdominal swelling, swelling of the legs, gynecomastia (men developing breasts) and impotence. The complications that could result from cirrhosis include kidney Failure and liver cancer.

Ethiopian Government: We are Not Aware of Any Reports of Toxic Spills

While Poly-GCL refused to comment when contacted, Ethiopian Government through the director of licensing at the federal ministry of mines and petroleum Mr Ketsela Tadesse, said it was not aware of any reports of spillages, also observing that there were no permanent residents in the vicinity of the gas project because people in the area were pastoral farmers.

“We can emphatically state that all the gas wells at Calub and elsewhere in the Ogaden Basin are sealed, safe and secured according to international standards,” said Tadesse. Despite this denial, medical experts in the area have claimed that most cases of the mysterious disease have emanated from the area around the gas project.

But there is also a possibility that the toxins were left by companies that operated in the area many years back before the arrival of the Chinese company. Extensive oil and gas deposits were first discovered in the area almost 90 years ago. The first exploration was undertaken by American Standard Oil in 1920. Further explorations by Tenneco also of America in 1974, led to the discovery of almost 68 million cubic meters of gas.

Could Disease X be Crimea-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever?

Whereas many in the affected areas are blaming such exploration as the cause, there is an implausible belief in some quarters that the disease could be ‘Crimea-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), a viral disease common in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia with sporadic outbreaks in Kosovo, Albania, Iran and Turkey over the years. Its symptoms include bleeding from the upper bowel, blood in the urine nosebleeds and bleeding from the gums.

Even though some of these symptoms could be similar to those of the mysterious disease , a number of factors rule out the possibility of CCHF. One is that the latter has been localized in one area for a very long time unlike CCHF which tends to spread fast across a wide geographical area if not controlled.

Ethiopia’s 2001 Struggle With A Strange Illness

It is not the first time a mysterious disease is being reported in Ethiopia. In early 2000s, a strange illness was reported in the Northern region after people living in the villages began to develop swollen abdomens, losing weight and showing signs of liver disease.

In some cases all members of one family were wiped out by the disease. In 2005 a multidisciplinary team made of Ethiopian medical experts, environmentalists and anthropologists supported by the US Centers for Disease Control, began to carry out investigations in the area to determine the cause.

After two years, the investigations ruled out infectious disease and suggested that the disease may be related to toxins in the diets of the locals. Although no definite cause was found the experts were able to narrow down the list of possibilities. They discovered that grain samples gathered from household farms contained low levels of plant based liver toxins called pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs). Their conclusion was that the cause of the outbreak was exposure to a toxic PA-contaminated grain or animal product.

L'articolo Mysterious “Disease X” Strikes in Ethiopia: What is it? proviene da InsideOver.

Ethiopia, Africa’s oldest independent nation will this August 16 hold competitive national elections for the first time in 30 years. But the country’s fragmented opposition is casting aspersions on the putative exercise leading close Addis Ababa watchers to question whether this former Marxist leaning nation is ready to embrace plural democracy.

And further emboldening an impression the polls may flounder is the existence of an inextricable and pervasive ethno-nationalist fervor that eternally threatens to unravel the relative peace being experienced within this East Africa nation.

Beginning in 1991 – when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a left-wing ethnic federalist political coalition, took over the reins of leadership after mounting a 17-year guerrilla warfare ending 17 years of totalitarian rule- Ethiopia has held regular parliamentary elections but, with one exception, none were competitive.

On December 2019, the EPRDF, once Africa’s largest, and arguably most powerful, political party and richest, thanks to its business interests, was dissolved, courtesy of a brazen initiative led by the country’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, 43, – heralding, according to its supporters, an entirely new mode of politics.

Prime Minister Abiy – who, in April 2018, became the first Oromo to hold the post – has introduced a number of reforms since assuming office, as well as overseen the release of jailed dissidents, the unblocking of websites and moves to liberalize the economy.

The Oromo are the country’s largest ethnic group, accounting for 34.5% of Ethiopia’s 105 million strong population in a state that has 80 disparate ethnic groups.

In its stead, the Prosperity Party (PP) emerged, doing away with a four-party ethnic coalition structure that drew in the Tigrayan Peoples’ Liberation Front, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (later Amhara Democratic Party), the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (later Oromo Democratic Party), and the Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

To its supporters, the PP offers an escape from the divisive and increasingly deadly ethnic politics which characterized three decades of EPRDF rule. To its critics, it is the thin end of the wedge towards abandonment of the 1995 constitution and the principle of ethnic self-rule – ethnic federalism – which it enshrines. And there are fears that it could also tear an already desperately polarized country even further apart.

Already, the country’s Minister of Defence Lemma Megerssa, a close ally of the Prime Minister, has gone public to oppose the folding up of EPRDF.

Megerssa, a former president of the Oromia regional state – Abiy’s home region – told the VOA Afaan Oromo service last week that he opposed the new party and that the ruling party in Oromia – the Oromo Democratic Party, ODP, had issues to resolve before entering such an arrangement.

Ethiopia is a federation subdivided into 10 ethno-linguistically based regional states. Apparently, the ninth regional state, Tigray, was not present when the EPRDF was done away with because it was opposed to the merger and subsequent dissolution of the EPRDF, calling it an illegality.

Also, violence in the regions has forced 2.4 million people out of their homes, according to the United Nations, and delayed both a national census and local elections. Opposition politicians have repeatedly warned that election delays could fuel unrest and dent the democratic credentials of Abiy.

William Davison, Ethiopia analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank, said the opposition could pose a real challenge to the ruling party.

“An overall majority for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s party is by no means guaranteed, especially if the opposition is allowed to freely campaign,” Davison said.

Security and seasonal considerations came up as major concerns expressed by leaders of political parties vying for seats in the coming elections.

“Ethiopia as a nation is not ready to hold general parliamentary elections,” said outspoken opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew of the Ethiopian Democratic Party.

Further, a splinter faction of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) called Shane is reportedly waging war in a southwestern area of Kelem Wollega in the Oromia region.

“The current security situation in Ethiopia does not allow for the conduct of a credible election,” Lidetu said.
One opposition political party said Aug. 16 was unsuitable because it is a fasting day for the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and falls during the rainy season.

“There are concerns that need to be resolved and addressed specifically on the schedule,” Desalegn Chane, president of the opposition National Movement of Amhara, told Reuters.

While the OLF leader Dawud Ibsa -whose party was previously considered a terrorist movement by the Ethiopian government until July 2018 when the ban was lifted together with two other groups, as part of the Prime Minister’s efforts to bring various opposition groups back into Ethiopian politics, has opposed the electoral date.

“August is a rainy season when rivers will bulge, making it difficult for people of the countryside to move about,” he said, preferring the elections be held in or before June – prior to the onset of the main rainy season.

According to the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), 50 million Ethiopians are expected to cast their votes with 80 political parties expected to tussle over the coveted prize. The NEBE chairperson Birtukan Mideksa said her organization is seeking $129 million from government for purposes of running the polls.

Jawar Mohammed, an influential political activist widely thought to be harboring ambitions of challenging Abiy, suspects the ruling party sought the August 16 date so as to leverage on incumbency with the intentions of “locking out” opposition parties especially from reaching rural areas.

In one of his tweets he wrote: “August is a No Go for election. By the way many suspect planning to hold the election in August is meant to favor the ruling party that controls state’s transportation resources and hinder poorly resourced opposition from accessing rural areas.And ironically as early as 6 months ago, ruling party leaders were saying election will be held in August. Coincidence?”

Jawar, who played a central role in having Abiy elected as Prime Minister, has since joined the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) based in the Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia’s largest and most populous one.

It is also the home region of Prime Minister Abiy and Jawar who incidentally broke ranks with the former after the PM told parliament that media-owning personalities who were fomenting unrest with their outlets.

Jawar said the claims were an attack on him understandably because he is the owner of Oromia Media Network, an influential ethnic television station based in Minnesota, US.

Last year, Jawar’s claims of a security breach on his person stirred widespread protests across the region with young people denouncing Abiy and pledging support for Jawar.

While the NEBE has downplayed the concerns raised by the opposition saying it was going to liaise with federal and regional governments to deploy logistics, the world will be watching how Sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest growing economy the election date conundrum.

L'articolo Great Challenge for Ethiopia’s Fledgling Democracy. proviene da InsideOver.

A recent report by the American newspaper New York Times has claimed that a new finding suggests that American and Dutch authorities hid the real reason behind the 2009 crash of a Turkish Airlines plane in the Netherlands. The allegation comes at a point when the American manufacturer is suffering heavy economic losses and the loss of trust due to two deadly incidents in 2018 and 2019. This news may come as the ultimate blow for the company and it may also raise questions on how investigations are carried out.

On 25 February 2009, a Turkish Airlines aircraft crashed at the Netherlands’ Schipol Airport, killing nine people and injuring 117 others. The report by authorities claimed that the main cause of the incident was the pilots’ fault. The report mentioned that during the moment of the plane’s landing, the two altimeters of the plane were showing different values which caused a malfunction in the aircraft’s autopilot system. The main responsibility, in this case, was related to the pilots as they did not intervene to fix the issue but no other problem was pointed out in the findings. However, the New York Times article stressed that some aviation safety experts, such as Dr Sidney Dekker, accused Boeing of concealing their risky design choices and faulty safety assessments as the company didn’t inform pilots before the malfunction occurred. Furthermore, the necessary information for pilots to prevent this malfunction wasn’t included in pilot guidebooks according to the latest findings. The New York Times said that American authorities changed the details on the report to prevent any accusations against Boeing. A professor from Ohio State University and advisor to Federal Aviation Administration David Woods mentioned that “the Turkish Airlines accident should have awakened everyone.”

Nine years after the Turkish Airlines crash at Schipol airport, another incident shocked the world when a Lion Air Flight 610 crashed into the Java sea soon after taking off from Jakarta. All 189 people on board were killed. This was the first crash that involved the 737 Max 8 aircrafts introduced in 2017. Initial reports after the crash suggested that the aircraft’s airspeed indicators malfunctioned, similar to the 2009 crash. The system failure was again related to design flaw, where the Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System of the 737 Max series caused an automatic nose-down trim. Following the reports, both the Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing warned all operators on how to avoid such events to prevent another crash such as the Lion Air Flight 610. However, like some global task forces claimed, Boeing failed to sufficiently explain the malfunctions related to the Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System, and after only five months, another fatal crash took place, which again involved a Boeing aircraft.

The Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 from Addis Ababa to Nairobi on 10 March 2019 crashed only six minutes after taking off. All 157 people on board the flight lost their lives. The Boeing 737 Max 8 was again at the centre of controversy. Following both incidents related to the same aircraft, a majority of airline companies started grounding Boeing 737 Max 8 aircrafts and cancelled their orders from the American manufacturer. Initial studies on the black box of the plane showed clear similarities with the Lion Air Flight 610 crash and again the system forced the aircraft to perform an automatic nose-down trim. Pilots failed to respond to the event. Despite the lack of action by the pilots, acclaimed pilot Chesley Sullenberger defended them, sayıng: “Even knowing what was going to happen, I could see how crews would have run out of time and altitude before they could have solved the problems.”

A total of 355 people were killed in three crashes related to Boeing and all of the cases were caused by similar malfunctions according to the findings. The New York Times article claimed the similarities between these three events (sensor failure) and said that if the reason behind the 2009 crash was aired transparently, the following two deadly incidents could have been prevented. The New York Times article will again draw attention to Boeing’s design choices and faulty safety assessments, initiating a new test of trust for the American giant. However, the credibility of investigators will also be questioned by the public and the power of aircraft companies and their influence will also become a serious matter of investigation. The theory of parallelism between the crashes emerging from these claims and the real link between the incidents will emerge after a series of investigations is conducted appropriately on the matter. Despite these needs, the news is perhaps filling the gaps on some unanswered questions from 2009. The former CEO of Turkish Airlines, Temel Kotil at that time claimed that Dutch authorities prevented Turkish Airlines officials to reach the crash site by handcuffing them. The event caused many conspiracy theories at the time, with some media outlets claiming the involvement of the FBI in the event.

Many years have passed since the Turkish Airlines crash but the New York Times article may reopen some closed cases to find new details about the three deadly crashes. Of course, it is difficult to forecast what action authorities might take next and whether new investigations will be carried out. However, what people are now asking is what measures authorities might take and whether new investigations will be carried out? What remains certain though is people asking themselves, “would it have been possible to prevent the deaths of over 300 people if they had taken the case of Turkish Airlines seriously?”

L'articolo Boeing’s Role in the 2009 Turkish Airlines Crash proviene da InsideOver.

On November 20, Ethiopia’s Sidama people realised a dream decades old. Queuing from dawn until dusk to cast their ballots, more than two million voted in a watershed referendum on secession. Almost all backed a bid to break away. In a new, semi-autonomous state, the Sidama people will shape their own future unfettered by far-flung lawmakers – but some worry it could be the start of a frenzied unravelling of Ethiopia’s fragile federal system.

Ethiopians agitating to exercise their rights were once locked up or shot, such was their nation’s repressive set-up. But things have changed. Elected last year, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has worked tirelessly to kick-start a democratic revolution. His government has released thousands of political prisoners, repatriated exiled opponents, and made a point of approving the Sidama’s referendum request.

Their right to a vote on self-determination is enshrined in the country’s constitution. Any of Ethiopia’s over 80 ethnic groups can seek autonomy, according to the text – but fearing wider fragmentation, past rulers have been quick to quash independence impulses.          

Small wonder the shot at secession wasn’t to be passed up by the Sidama, Ethiopia’s fifth-biggest ethnic community. An astounding 99.8% of the electorate turned out, with all bar 1.5% backing a break-away. Their new state will be carved from the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), and will command its own tax regime, education system, and security force.       

Reaching this point has not been easy – even with Abiy in office. For months his government dithered on the question of a referendum, postponing a vote scheduled for July. The consequences were catastrophic. Enraged at what they saw as a federal snub, the public rose in revolt. As civil unrest spread across the SNNPR, government troops clashed with protesters, and fifty lives were lost.  

The bloodshed’s shadow hung over the referendum campaign. Public rallies were banned and soldiers prowled the streets; but by-and-large, the vote was a peaceful affair. It was an expression of the nation’s “democratisation path,” the prime minister said afterwards, one that bodes well for his planned general election next year. 

Abiy hopes that vote will galvanise a sense of national unity, as he strives to steer the country away from its ‘ethno-federal’ roots. He plans to replace Ethiopia’s long-running party of government, the EPRDF, with the Prosperity Party, a new national coalition. This group will engender a different type of politics, he hopes – one that focuses more on policy than ethnicity. 

But Abiy’s dreams of reform are likely hindered by the Sidama vote. Following their neighbour’s lead, at least ten other groups in Ethiopia’s south are now demanding a ballot, experts believe. “[The] key question now is how Wolayta, Hadiya, Gurage, Keffa and other zones seeking statehood referendums will react,” said William Davison of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank.               

Their cause is being championed by former-exile Jawar Mohammed, an influential activist and vocal critic of the prime minister. In a post to his 1.75m Facebook followers, Jawar – who intends to stand in the forthcoming election – described the Sidama result as “one in the bag for federalists”, urging like-minded groups to “stand for self-determination”.

It is a message that resonates with many. But a speedy disintegration of the SNNPR would be dangerous, especially at a time of heightened ethnic unrest. Intercommunal conflict forced more than two million Ethiopians from their homes last year, according to the United Nations – and in recent weeks, there has been a marked upsurge in violence. 

On October 23, supporters of Jarwar took to the streets, blocking roads and burning copies of Abiy’s new book on the merits of national unity. Events then took a bloody turn, as the protesters – mostly young men of Oromo heritage – clashed with groups of Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnicity.  

Skirmishes have continued sporadically ever since, claiming as many as 80 lives. Many of the victims were stoned to death. Others were killed in attacks on mosques and churches, hinting at a worrying religious development. 

This violence must be stamped out, but doing so won’t be easy. Abiy has wedded himself to a democratic path, but in doing so he risks inciting long-repressed ethnic tensions. Emancipated communities will coexist more peacefully, he hopes, but the opposite could also be true: emboldened racial groups at loggerheads over their new-found sovereignty. Either way, the road to further referendums now lies open. For better or worse, their results will reshape Ethiopia.

L'articolo Ethopia’s Sidama People Vote For Independence – Could More Regions Follow? proviene da InsideOver.

It has been eighteen months since Abiy Ahmed, 43, was inaugurated as Prime Minister of Ethiopia and now a subtle rebellion spearheaded by a 33-year-old naturalized American citizen activist is threatening to upend his government.

In just two days during October, 67 people were killed when Abiy’s supporters and those of Jawar Mohammed crashed after the latter claimed police had surrounded his home and tried to withdraw his government security detail. The violence underscored the dilemma facing Abiy, the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who must retain support in Ethiopia’s ethnically, based federal system but not be seen to favour one group.

“The majority of people believe the transition is off track and we are backsliding towards an authoritarian system,” the Reuters News agency reported Jawar saying this October in his heavily guarded home-office in the center of the capital, Addis Ababa.

“The ruling party and its ideology will be challenged seriously not only in the election but also prior to the elections,” he said.

Soon after the clashes, Abiy who is also facing challenges from within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) – which has uninterruptedly held the helm since 1987- who feel disempowered from new, ethnically-based parties eager to flex their muscles in elections scheduled for May 2020, explicitly warned media owners against “fomenting unrest.”

“Those media owners who don’t have Ethiopian passports are playing both ways,” he said. “We tried to be patient. But if this is going to undermine the peace and existence of Ethiopia […] we will take measures. You can’t play both ways.”

Ethiopian watchers noted that before Jawar returned to his home country this August 5, 2018 after 10 years hiatus, he ran the Oromia Media Network (OMN) from a studio in Minnesota which is credited with organizing street protests. Last year these protests catapulted his once close political confidant to power in April of the same year, after forcing Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn’s resignation on 15 February, 2018.

Ironically, Abiy is the country’s first Oromo prime minister and Jawar, a kingmaker of sorts and an Oromo himself is flexing his muscles after warming his way into the country’s political ecosystem with a caustic form of etho-nationalism uniting around his Oromo ethnic group. Now it is weighing a possibility of throwing the gauntlet, seeking tenancy in the Menelik Palace in crucial elections scheduled for May 2020.

His supporters have stopped believing in Abiy’s promises of reform, he has said, accusing Abiy of centralizing power, silencing dissent, and jailing political prisoners – like his predecessors.

But Abby is determined to hold the elections despite the toxic climate in the country.

“Abiy’s reputation as a reformer will face a serious test in getting the country ready in time for the 2020 elections. The appointment of Birtukan Mideksa, a former opposition party leader, to head the country’s election board demonstrates Abiy’s recognition of the symbolic and political importance of the 2020 polls. The government has also appointed a new, professional electoral board, after consultations with opposition parties,” says Terrence Lyons, associate professor at the school for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University and the author of “The Puzzle of Ethiopian Politics.”

Ominously though, a census scheduled for this year, which was due before the elections, has been indefinably put on hold dampening the mood of elections happening any time soon.

Ethiopia has an estimated 110 million people or 1.43% of the total world population, according to the United Nations estimates and is the continent’s second-biggest populated nation after Nigeria.

According to Dr. Yohannes Gedamu, a lecturer of Political Science at Georgia Gwinnett College in Lawrenceville, GA, U.S., “Ethiopia has more than 80 ethnic groups. Despite recent improvements, it also has a weak economy and an overwhelmingly poor citizenry. If Abiy wants to make a genuine attempt at real democracy he must do away with tribal politics and make stronger strides towards national unity. “

What is telling is that the Oromo are the single largest ethno-national group in northeast Africa. In Ethiopia alone, they are estimated to be 50 million strong, representing 34.4% of the country’s entire population.

With the  EPRDF  which is cobbled up mostly with ethno-regional political parties being dominated by Tigray people, who make up 6% of the population but control the political economy of Ethiopia with the help of the West, particularly the US.

This relationship is strategic to the US who use the Tigrayan-led government’s army as their proxy to fight terrorism in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

Being the largest ethno-national group in the country, the Oromo have been made to feel marginalized, having been denied equal access to their country’s political, economic and cultural resources.

Also, with the loosening of political freedoms, many regional powerbrokers are demanding more influence and resources, fueling ethnically-tinged conflicts around the country.

In June, for example, a rogue state militia leader killed the state president of the Amhara region and other top-level officials in what the government described as a regional coup attempt.

According to David Williamson, a Senior Ethiopia Analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), a global think tank, Ethiopia has serious political problems.

He states: “They stem from unresolved questions about the structure and nature of the state and how to share power between Ethiopia’s various communities. There is now a clear objective to democratize, but it may be a tortuous journey to get there.”

Soon after Abiy’s accession Jawar brazenly claimed – to the dismay of many Ethiopians – that the country effectively now had two governments: one led by Abiy, the other by the Qeerroo, an Oromo term meaning “bachelor”.

Understandably the Qeerroo are supporters of this former political fugitive whose media organization, until recently was labelled a terrorist organization by the ERDF.

With 73,000 followers on Twitter and more than 1.4m on Facebook following him, it’s easy for him to mobilize demonstrators in this landlocked nation of 110 million, the most populous in Africa after Nigeria.

After the fatal clashes, this October the Ethiopian premier warned that increased instability in the country would escalate if the citizens failed to unite for a common purpose.

“We will unswervingly work to ensure the prevalence of the rule of law and to bring perpetrators to justice…There has been an attempt to turn the crisis into a religious and ethnic one. In the process our comrades have become victims in terrible circumstances,” he said in a statement issued by his office.

Furthermore, within Africa’s oldest nation-state was an attempted coup that took place this June, an incident where five government officials including the army chief of staff and the president of the northern Amhara region were assassinated.

Also, last year in June during a rally held in Addis Ababa, the capital, attended to by the prime minister, a grenade attack occurred, reportedly killing one person, wounding 253 others and critically injuring 10, according to Amir Aman the country’s Health Minister.

After the explosion, the prime minister said in a grim address to the nation that this was a “well-orchestrated attack.”

“The casualties are martyrs of love, unity and peace,” he said, urging Ethiopians not to be discouraged and to work toward reforming the country.

Should next year’s elections be free and fair  – as Abiy has promised they will be – they will prove whether the young prime minister can hold together his fractious nation or whether decades of state repression have numbed any sense of participatory democracy.

L'articolo Ethnic Clashes and Political Fears: Abiy Ahmed’s Dilemma in Ethiopia proviene da InsideOver.

Police in Ethiopia have said that 67 people have been killed and 213 more have been injured following violent protests that have erupted across the country. It comes just weeks after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s controversial Nobel Peace Prize award.

Kefyalew Tefera, the Regional Police Chief, told the Guardian that the violence included instances of security forces opening fire on protesters, but that it was increasingly taking the form of ethnic and religious clashes.

“Some people have lost their lives with sticks, with machetes, some houses have been burned. People have been using even bullets and light arms to kill each other, to fight each other,” he said.

Over 150 people have been arrested so far in the Oromia region.

Who is Jawar Mohammed?

On Wednesday, the violence swiftly spread across the capital, Addis Ababa, and in most of the African country’s Oromia. It was sparked by the remarks of a high-profile activist, Jawar Mohammed, who alleged that the authorities were planning an attack on him.

His supporters immediately took to the streets in protest against the way he was treated. The mobs – who were from the same Oromo ethnic group as both Ahmed and Mohammed – felt it was an act of betrayal against them. The disturbance soon escalated when they started to also turn on other ethnic groups.

Mohammed was initially part of the powerhouse that helped to drive Ahmed’s popularity, but in more recent times, he grew disparaging of the Prime Minister’s role.

In an interview with EFP, Mohammed explained, “He has resorted to the early signs of dictatorship, of trying to intimidate people, even his very close allies who helped him come to power who happen to disagree with some of the policies and positions and ideologies he’s advocating.”

Mohammed also indicated that there was a “possibility” that he could run against Ahmed in next year’s election.

“I want to have an active role in the coming election. In what capacity I’m not sure, but I want to make sure that the influence I have in the country has a positive contribution,” he added.

Abiy Ahmed’s rise to the top

This week’s riots come as a contrast to rallies that took place in the capital – almost a year ago – to celebrate Ahmed’s rule and welcome changes in the country. Crowds of thousands gathered to welcome home exiled insurgents and praise Ahmed’s work. His meteoric rise to the top made him so hugely popular that the phrase “Abiymania” was coined. His face was emblazoned on posters, t-shirts, stickers, and books.

“Without Abiy we would be doing nothing,” Asrat Abere, a taxi driver, told the Guardian at the time. “If he had time he could change everything.”

“The country is now democratic,” said another supporter, Stentehu. “Abiy is amazing – he is just like my father, my brother. He is family.”

On April 2, Ahmed became the youngest African leader in office at the age of 41. He inherited an Ethiopia after three years of riots, violence, and an economy on the brink of collapse.

In a short space of time under Ahmed’s rule, thousands of political prisoners were freed, the state of emergency was removed, and he made measures to steer the nation away from being state-controlled.

Most notably, just three months after coming into power, Ahmed forged a peace deal with Eritrea to end a 20-year military stalemate following a border war. Despite this, the task of delineating the border has not moved forward. But just weeks ago, Ahmed won the Nobel Peace Prize as a result of the deal.

Many fear that the ensuing violence could worsen in the coming days. In an official statement, Ahmed said, “The crisis we have faced will become even more fearsome and difficult if Ethiopians don’t unite and stand as one.”

“We will unswervingly work to ensure the prevalence of the rule of law and to bring perpetrators to justice.”

He highlighted that many buildings ­– including homes, workplaces, and places of worship – have been demolished, and that many Ethiopians have been displaced. The United Nations estimates that over 2 million people have been internally displaced.

“There has been an attempt to turn the crisis into a religious and ethnic one. In the process our comrades have become victims in terrible circumstances,” he added.

L'articolo Ethiopia, Riots Following PM’s Nobel Peace Prize proviene da InsideOver.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced on 11 October in Oslo the award of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize to Abiy Ahmed Ali, Prime Minister of Ethiopia. 43-year-old Abiy was honoured for his efforts to “achieve peace and international cooperation”, in particular the ending of the 20-year conflict between his country and neighbouring Eritrea.

Ethiopia and Eritrea, long-time enemies involved in the 1998-2000 border war, restored their relations in July 2018 after years of hostility.

L'articolo Who Is Abiy Ahmed proviene da InsideOver.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance is not the slogan or the appellation given to the policy of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, awarded in spite of the predictions last week of the Nobel Peace Prize, but is the name of one of the projects most controversial and, at the same time, crucial of the whole geopolitical panorama of Africa. It is, in fact, the dam on the Nile, known with the acronym of GERD, whose realization the government of Addis Ababa has commissioned in 2011 to the Italian company salini impregilo, which should represent a real turning point for the whole economy of Ethiopia and its role in the Horn of Africa. However, it is at the centre of long-standing disputes with Egypt which, in the area, plays the part of dominant power.

The project area is located about 500 km northwest of the capital Addis Ababa, in the region of Benishangul–Gumaz along the Blue Nile. At the end of the works, as the website of the construction company says, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will be the largest dam of Africa: 1800m long, 155m high and the total volume of 10.4 million cubic meters. The initial cost of the artwork, borne by the Ethiopian Electric Power customer, is estimated at 3.4 million euro.

The project is in its final phase, with the entry into production planned for 2020 and full operation for 2022; with the construction of the dam, capable of producing a power of 6,000 megawatts, Ethiopia would become the largest exporter of electricity of the African continent as a whole, and the government relies on high revenues to develop the rail network and, above all, to achieve a large number of new industrial areas.

The dispute with Egypt

But Egypt fears strongly that the dam will reduce the flow of water received from the River Nile, which provides real vital sap to three countries, starting from the springs on the highlands of Ethiopia, crossing the deserts of Sudan and then reaching the cultivated fields and the reservoirs of the Pyramids Country. Egypt depends 90% of its fresh water on the Nile and expects the water received from the GERD basin to be 40 billion cubic meters, while Ethiopia guarantees the continuation of 35.

“Egypt is dependent on the Nile for its water supply – has explained us in exclusive William Davison, Senior Analyst for Ethiopia of the International Crisis Group – and worries GERD will reduce it, but it is relying on outdated treaties that upstream countries like Ethiopia were not party to. Ethiopia claims the right to use its water resources and doesn’t acknowledge the legitimacy of treaties it did not sign. It sees GERD as a vital project that marks a new era of Nile politics and that can significantly boost domestic and regional power supply and water storage”.

Regarding a possible resolution of the dispute, Davison brings his own and the International Crisis Group’s position: “The solution is, for the two nations and all Nile countries, to sign the Cooperative Framework Agreement and institutionalise cooperation, so they share information on rainfall, river flows, reservoir levels, and planned projects. This will allow them to design mutually beneficial development strategies and synchronise operations of their hydropower dams and other schemes.”

The internal political situation

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali took over the government of Ethiopia on 2 April 2018, after two years of fighting with hundreds of dead and a political stalemate that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn, sign of the weakening of the Tigrayan ethnic group, ruling class in the country until that moment. Eighteen months after the installation of Abiy, the situation in Ethiopia is still far from being stable or, at least, under control, as William Davison explains: “The political situation is difficult. Liberalisation promises meaningful lasting change, but it has opened the political sphere to many different actors, some of whom have fundamental disagreements, such as over the ethnic-based federal system. While some political groups such as the Sidama and Oromo highly value the ethnic-regional autonomy it offers, others think the system is driving Ethiopian apart from each other and creating conflict. There are also many grievances, such as those from the Amhara, who believe they have been the victims under the federal system, even though others perceive the Amhara as a formerly privileged power. The resulting rise in Amhara nationalism led to extreme high-level political violence in June and there are considerable tensions between Amhara and Tigray, nominally over Tigrayan territory that’s claimed by some Amhara factions”.

Peace with Eritrea

One year after the peace treaties signed with Eritrea, for which Abiy Ahmed received the prestigious prize, awarded by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, we tried to draw a balance with the analyst Davison. The clamour and optimism for the reopening of borders and the resumption of bilateral relations, in fact, was followed by a new closure of borders: “The situation is still positive – he explains -, but progress is slow and there are major obstacles. The ruling party of Tigray is a crucial actor and its full cooperation is needed to fully normalise relations and settled border issues with Eritrea, but its relations with the rest of the ruling coalition and the federal authorities in Ethiopia are very bad. There is also a question mark over whether President Isaias is keen to quickly move to full normalisation with Ethiopia, as then there will no longer be a justification for suspending the Eritrean constitution, which means his rule will face challengers that it does not under the current situation”.

The Nobel Prize and the possible negative impact

As soon as we heard the news of the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, we contacted Norwegian Kjetil Tronvoll, Professor of Conflict and Peace Studies at Bjąrknes University College and Director of Oslo Analytica, one of the world’s leading experts on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa in general: “The prize legitimizes the efforts of Abiy, but I don’t think it will necessarily give impetus to the peace process” he told us. A process that, after the trumpets and handshakes of 9 July 2018, with the opening of the borders between Ethiopia and Eritrea two months later, ran aground. The borders have been closed again, to put a stop to the impressive flow of refugees who are pushing to flee the Isaias regime. It is not by chance that the Nobel Prize was awarded only to one of the two contenders in the conflict, Abiy precisely, without Isaias even being mentioned in the Norwegian Committee’s explanatory statement: “For his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea”.

“To move forward with the peace process– explains Tronvoll– both sides need to work in the same direction”, which is not happening right now.

The question also involves the peculiar constitutional order of Ethiopia, with the strong federalism to which we have already referred, for which “Eritrea– explains the Norwegian professor– is not in conflict with Ethiopia, but with the Tigay region”, involved in territorial disputes with Asmara. Abiy has no interest in antagonizing the Tigray Liberation Front (TPLF) and, furthermore, has also had to face an attempted coup in the state of Amhara, another warm area, with Sidama that will vote a referendum for autonomy on 13 November. From this situation, is clear the phrase that William Davison told us: “Before thinking about foreign policy and the idea of reaching an important role in the Horn of Africa, Abiy’s goal should be to internally stabilise Ethiopia. Unify the country, before looking out”.

The Nobel Prize awarded to Abiy, as Professor Tornvoll clearly explains, may even harm the peace process and the internal situation of Eritrea: “Isaias might be insulted since he was not awarded too. Hence, he may become more negative towards Abiy, as he may perceive Abiy has stolen his glory too. Furthermore, the prize gives legitimacy to those who want democratic reforms and change in Eritrea too; hence Isaias has to rule even harder to crack down upon anyone who may use the prize against his policy and arguing for change”. In short, peace is still far away, even if the Nobel Prize has already arrived.

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Somalians are fleeing to Ethiopia to avoid drought, hunger and extremist group, al-Shabaab.

More than 5,000 Somalis – four times more than in 2018 – have sought refuge in the East African nation this year alone.

Refugee, Barwako Abdi, said: “I left because of my children. I want my children to succeed and have a bright future. Living on the farm when there is drought is always difficult. I have raised my children in hardship. I can’t let them be taken away by the fighters.”

Somali has “one of the world’s most protracted displacement situations” with over 2 million Somalis displaced in the surrounding region in the past two decades. Climate change has deeply affected Somali, resulting in extensive drought in the region. Families, facing the country’s worst drought since the 2011 famine, are also forced to pay illegal taxes to al-Shabaab soldiers, exacerbating an already precarious situation.

“There was a time when we would cultivate the farms. The river would rise, and it would flow, and we survived. We planted maize, tomatoes, sesame and other things along the river. Now the river is dry and there is no more rain. What’s worse is that al-Shabaab forced us to give them the little we had,” another Somali refugee, Shalle Hassan Abdirahman, said

Shalle arrived at The UN Refugee Agency’s (UNHCR) Dollo Ado Reception Centre in Eastern Ethiopia after a three-day journey from Somalia’s Lower Juba region.

The 53-year old farmer grew and sold tobacco until al-Shabaab banned it. Despite facing a loss of income, he was forced to pay al-Shabaab an exorbitant tax of $1,500 which he could not afford. Many families who can not afford this tax are forced to hand over their children for military training.

“My children are growing and are also at risk of being taken away as fighters. That’s why I came here, so they can go to school, so their future can be better,” Barwako continued.

“In today’s changing climate, mass displacement triggered by extreme weather events is becoming the norm,” the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC) said in a report published this month. In the first half of 2019, 10.8 million people were displaced globally: 7 million by disasters and 3.8 million by conflict and violence.

“New arrivals never stopped coming to Ethiopia, so every year we have some more coming and reporting the same challenges when it comes to drought, insecurity, shortage of food and water,” said Muhammad Harfoush, Protection Officer, at UNHCR’s Melkadida sub-office.

The UNHCR announced that there is a shortage of available shelters to accommodate Somali refugees arriving in Ethiopia.

“Daily arrivals are accommodated at the reception centre, then transferred to the camp depending on the availability of shelters, so that is a key challenge we have. We are trying to address it,” Harfoush promised.

At the Dollo Ado reception centre, refugees like Shalle are awaiting registration and relocation to one of Melkadida’s five refugee camps. They are overcrowded, camped out on beds pushed against the outer walls of the centre.

“I have been sleeping well since I arrived,” Shalle said of the reception centre.

Other refugees, like Barwako, are temporarily sheltered in Bur Amino Refugee Camp in South-East Ethiopia, in the grounds of a school run by one of UNHCR’s partners, World Vision.

Experts have warned that global displacement is becoming the “norm” as climate change “hazards” worsen in the future.

“With the impact of climate change, in the future these types of hazards are expected to become more intense,” the director of the International Displacement Monitoring Center, Alexandra Bilak, said.

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The future of Egypt’s relations with Ethiopia is uncertain after a new round of talks between the two countries over a dam constructed by the Horn of Africa state on the Nile has failed.

Egypt invited a host of Ethiopian and Sudanese officials into Cairo on September 14 for a new round of talks on Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam.

Egyptian negotiators reportedly proposed that Egyptian engineers participate in operating the dam, which should start power production by the end of next year.

However, Ethiopia turned down the Egyptian proposal. On September 18, Ethiopian Minister for Water, Irrigation and Energy, Sileshi Bekele, described the Egyptian plan, including the volume of water it wants the dam to release annually, as “inappropriate.”

“The proposal from Egypt was unilaterally decided,” Bekele said at a press conference in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa. “We can’t agree with this…we will prepare our counter-proposal.”

The Grand Renaissance Dam has been a severe headache for Egypt since the start of its construction in 2011.

The multibillion-dollar hydroelectric dam will prevent a sizeable amount of Nile River water from reaching Egypt, the last recipient of river water in the ten-state Nile Basin.

The Nile River is Egypt’s only source of water and Egyptians view dams constructed along the river as a matter of life or death for them.

Egypt receives 55.5 billion cubic meters of water from the river annually. This is around 20 billion cubic meters of water below real national needs.

The amount of water coming to Egypt from the river has been the same over the years, even as Egypt’s population, now 100 million, keeps growing.

The Grand Renaissance Dam should store over 70 billion cubic meters of water behind it. Egypt’s prime concern is that the project will deprive it of a sizeable amount of water for several years as Ethiopia fills its reservoir.

Egypt stands to suffer untold damage from the filling of the dam reservoir with agriculture and irrigation experts expecting the Arab state to lose a lot of its farmland to dam reservoir filling-induced droughts. The project is also expected to seriously threaten Egypt’s food security for several years.

Ethiopia says the project is important for its economic development and the welfare of its people. Addis Ababa plans to sell electricity generated by the dam to neighbouring states to earn money it is so badly in need of to improve the living conditions of its people.

On September 17, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said his country was not against the dam construction or Ethiopia’s development plans.

He added at a press briefing in Cairo that his country only wanted damage from the construction of the dam and the filling of its reservoir to be tolerable.

“An agreement can be reached when there is a real political will,” the Egyptian foreign minister said.

Egypt, he said, has confidence in the ties that bind it together with both Ethiopia.

He added that Egypt has strong confidence in the political will available on the Ethiopian side.

“We want to translate this will into an agreement that gives assurances to the peoples of the three countries,” Shoukry said of the peoples of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is unlikely to cave to Egyptian demands and this opens the door wide for all possibilities in the coming days.

In Addis Ababa, Egypt’s demand that Egyptian engineers participate in operating the dam is seen as a violation of national sovereignty.

In Cairo, the dam construction and the potential devastating effects from depriving 100 million Egyptians of their cherished Nile water are seen as Egypt’s death knell.

Whether both sides will reach a common ground and agree on a win-win formula on the dam will most likely depend on how the international community, including the African Union, can help.

L'articolo Egypt and Ethiopia’s Relationship Threatened Over Nile Dam proviene da InsideOver.