Reportage / Migration 23.03.2021

No Man’s Land

When I was living in Athens I talked to Constantine, a Greek friend, about the immigration problem. He observed that borders can be real or imaginary – or both. The El Shalatin Camel Market in Egypt  I asked him to…

Anna Consilia Alemanno

Massimiliano Pescarolo

When I was living in Athens I talked to Constantine, a Greek friend, about the immigration problem. He observed that borders can be real or imaginary – or both.

 I asked him to explain this point. Smiling and looking at the bright blue Athens sky, he continued: “The suffering of people who are unable to cross certain borders because they are ‘not authorized’ is real. And, of course, those borders are politically real but they are only imaginary lines that someone, once, decided to mark on a map on the basis of sometimes strange and incomprehensible criteria, or because they were somehow convenient for them and only for them, certainly not for those who lived there, in those lands.”

I wonder what Constantine would say if he knew that there is a real no man’s land, not that far from Athens. In fact, there are two no-man’s lands.

It’s a land where borders are real but at the same time unreal. That is to say they mean nothing, since no one claims the land that these same borders define. On the contrary, the other territory, very close to this border is strongly contested by the two neighboring countries, Sudan and Egypt.

Below this line other boundaries are marked, including those of a small patch of land called the “Bir Tawil triangle” (meaning “long well” or “deep well” in Arabic). Bir Tawil is called a triangle but in reality it is a quadrilateral with a trapezoidal shape running along the twenty-second parallel of latitude north. This patch of land, with daytime temperatures reaching up to 45°C, is the only part of the planet – with the exception of one of the western regions of Antarctica called Marie Byrd Land – that does not belong to anyone since it has never been claimed by any state.

Hence it is terra nullius. The British drew this straight line to coincide with the parallel in 1899, when they controlled the region. They established that to the north it would formally belong to Egypt – which at that time was under British rule – while to the south it would have an Egyptian representative in Sudan and hence also be controlled by Britain.

By contrast there is another region just east of Bir Tawil that is disputed between Egypt and Sudan. It is called the “Hala’ib triangle.” The border area of this territory, which includes the areas of Halayeb, Shalateen and Abu Ramad, is controlled by Egypt. Since the 1950s, Sudan has claimed sovereignty over the Halaib Triangle overlooking the Red Sea coast on the Egyptian-Sudanese border and covering an area of approximately 20,580 square kilometers. Ever since Sudan gained independence from Anglo-Egyptian rule in 1956, the region was open to trade and the movement of people from the two countries without any restrictions. This lasted until 1995 when the Egyptian army took over it.

Cairo claims the Halaib triangle is Egyptian and in 2016 it refused to attend negotiations or resort to international arbitration to determine the right to sovereignty over the region, which Sudan claims, reiterating its complaint every year before the UN Security Council.

But now cracks are appearing in the surface tranquillity. As reported by the Arab website Al-Monitor, President of the Transitional Military Council of Sudan Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan delivered an emphatic speech to army officers and soldiers on August 24, 2020 in the Wadi Seidna military zone of Khartoum marking the 66th anniversary of the army’s foundation. He once again raised the issue of the disputed border region with Egypt. Burhan said the army will not give up an inch of Sudanese territory.

“We will not abandon or forget our right until the flag of Sudan is raised in Halayeb, Shalateen and any controversial area along Sudan’s borders,” al Burhan said. While the fate of this strip of land is still being disputed, nomadic populations and small permanent groups of about a hundred inhabitants occupy the area, living by herding and small-scale trade. The most important of these is the El Shalatin camel market, which in reality is located in Egypt but in its far south on the border with Sudan, just north of the disputed territory, about 300 km from Aswan.

Exchanging glances with the men, women and children who live, as best they can, in this place enclosed by disputed borders, I feel that Constantine’s statement becomes more meaningful.

Not because they risk their lives crossing the borders of Halaib, but because you are moved to wonder what difference it would make to them if they were Egyptian or Sudanese. You also wonder what these children of clear Sudanese origin scrambling among the white rocks will do one day when they are told by an armed Egyptian soldier that they cannot live where they have always lived. These are also naïve questions, I daresay.

L'articolo No Man’s Land proviene da InsideOver.

The multinational military drill Medusa-10 was completed last week and highlights some of the current key security and geopolitical trends in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The armed forces of Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, and the UAE participated in this annual exercise, which this time — compared to previous years — conveyed significant political messages in addition to its typical projection of defense capabilities.

Training was held November 30 to Dec. 6 in the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Alexandria, Egypt.

Composition of Forces

Since Egyptian-Greek defense cooperation and coordination were the key objectives of this exercise, these two countries contributed the bulk of the participating forces.

Among the participating forces from the Egyptian side, were several high-mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles (Humvees), a mechanized infantry subunit, a multi-mission guided-missile frigate with her organic Kaman SH-2G helicopter, one Submarine, two fast patrol boats, several multirole aircraft, 1 CH-47 Chinook, and 4 Kamov Ka-52 helicopters.

From the Greek side were included two frigates, one type 214 submarine, one landing ship, four F-16 fighter jets, operating from Greece and another four fighter jets operating from Cairo, one Airborne Early Warning and Control Unit (AEW&C), four helicopters of the Hellenic Army Aviation Force (one CH-47 Chinook and three AH-64 Apaches) and one C-130 transport aircraft.

Cyprus deployed an Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) and the United Arab Emirates contribued four Mirage 2000 aircraft, and four Black Hawk helicopters. Finally, the French Cassard-class anti-air frigate Jeane Bart also took part in the exercise, solidifying the presence of the French Navy in the region.

The Key Role of Special Operators in the Drills

Apart from the aforementioned forces, we should highlight the unique role of the SOF units (Special Operations Forces) in Medusa-10. The contributing countries proved that they are able to coordinate in terms of special operations and asymmetric warfare tactics by including some of their most prestigious and high-caliber military elements the drills.

These units held a prominent role for the duration of the exercise, but the most important aspect of Medusa-10 was the direct cooperation and integration of SOF personnel in joint drills, something that has never happened in the past. Specifically there have been occasions where multinational SOF teams were created and worked together on several scenarios, a rare practice which underscores the great degree of cooperation and the high professionalism of those units.

Incident with the Turkish Navy

While the exercise was ongoing a vessel of the Turkish Navy tried to interrupt the training. The Turkish frigate Kemal Reis began moving close to the area of the drill on Friday December 4, one day prior to the final and most important phase of the exercise (DV Day).

Kemal Reis was en route to an Egyptian frigate and reached a distance of 20 nautical miles away from the exercises. Once the course of the Turkish vessel was spotted, the Egyptian ship adjusted its direction pointing to Kemal Reis, pushing the Turkish vessel to begin a retreat. Kemal Reis was moving into the proximity of the area of the drill under the close monitoring of the participating forces; whatever the Turkish intent actually was, the whole presence of their ship was rather pointless and failed to disrupt the ongoing exercise.

Medusa-10 was a Success

I have been in contact with officers who participated in the exercise and they confirmed that the level of cooperation and operational coordination was extremely high. Medusa-10 brought together staff from five different countries with mutual goals in the Eastern Mediterranean and enabled high-level collaboration among the armed forces of the participating states, from the tactical to the strategic level.

The Greek and Cypriot sides have been traditionally working closely, sharing a similar mindset regarding the security landscape and defense doctrine in the region. During Medusa-10, the Egyptians and Emiratis showcased that they share many of the same concerns and are aligning with this approach. At the mid-senior level the officers of these countries agree on the threat perception fueled by the Turkish activity in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Exercises like Medusa-10 bring units closer together who could eventually operate in the region during a potential confrontation with Turkey. The feeling of a mutual mission and common objectives is the most significant aspect of the whole process, probably more essential than any pragmatic training activity.

A Perplexing Reality is Developing in the Eastern Mediterranean

While Medusa-10 has been successfully completed, further geopolitical developments and new alliances are emerging in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Greece has repeatedly witnessed a lukewarm EU response against Turkish aggression, so a potential partnership with regional powers who share aligning interests with Athens could prove to be a much more fruitful tactic.

However, the situation in the Eastern Mediterranean is not that simple. Even though France is backing Greece in this dispute, there is no guarantee from Paris that it would militarily intervene in the unfortunate event of a Greek-Turkish escalation. Even though that is an unlikely scenario it could accidentally happen given the pressure and the tense activity of the previous months.

On the other hand, Athens and Abu Dhabi signed a defense agreement in November, which among other things dictates that each country should militarily assist the other in case of an attack from a third party. This specific part is rather utopic in the case of a potential attack from Turkey, and its only purpose was to create political impressions.

Considering that Greece and Turkey are NATO members, any UAE involvement in a potential confrontation between the two would create a very complex situation for the North Atlantic coalition and is highly unlikely to happen — not to mention the controversy of a Sunni monarchy joining an officially Orthodox Christian country fighting against a fellow Muslim power.

Even if politics could override religion at the senior levels of these nations’ political leadership, the situation would be much more challenging moving bottom-up from the soldiers to the junior and mid-level officers. In this sense the current status quo in the Eastern Mediterranean remains fluid and highly unpredictable.

L'articolo Medusa-10’s Geopolitical Implications in the Eastern Mediterranean proviene da InsideOver.

The ongoing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a major hydropower dam project being built by Addis Ababa on the Nile River has inspired an increased spirit of patriotism among Egyptians.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Egypt — which gets 90% of its water supplies from the River Nile — fears that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will sharply reduce its water share. Ethiopia, an upstream country, says the dam project is vital for the country’s development. Years of negotiations between the two countries have failed to resolve the dispute.

The standoff revolves around the filling and operation of the dam, which sits on the Blue Nile. The Blue Nile flows into the River Nile during periods of drought. While Ethiopia wants to fill the dam’s reservoir of 74 billion cubic meters during a period of four to seven years, Egypt demands the reservoir be filled over a longer and slower period of 10 years.

Ethiopia Starts Filling Dam Without Egyptian Approval

On July 15, Ethiopia announced that it has started filling the GERD without reaching an agreement with downstream countries Egypt and Sudan. The announcement sparked anger in Egypt, with many Egyptians taking to social media to express their support for any action to be taken by their government against Ethiopia over the dam.

Social media accounts in Egypt have been filled with patriotism and cheering for their army, with many users posting photos of soldiers and military vehicles on their pages.

“Ethiopia has no right to build a dam on the Nile without an agreement with Egypt and Sudan. They [Ethiopia] don’t own the Nile River,” Ahmed Raef, 45, a driver, told InsideOver. “If they continued to refuse to reach an agreement with us on building the dam, the Egyptian army can intervene and solve the situation by force.”

Ethiopia Doesn’t Stand a Chance Against Egypt

A source of pride for many in Egypt, the Egyptian military is by far more powerful than Ethiopia’s. Egypt’s army ranks ninth out of 138 armies around the world, while the Ethiopian army ranks 60th, according to the Global Fire Power.

Angry with what they view as Ethiopian intransigence over the dam, Egyptians launched several hashtags on social media to show support for their military and defend the country’s right to the Nile water. A petition also went viral on social media, requesting the army to take all measures needed to protect and defend Egypt’s national security, resources and fortunes of the Egyptian people.

‘The Egyptian Army is Strong Enough to Force Ethiopia to Change its Mind’

“The Egyptian army is strong enough to force Ethiopia to change its mind on filling the dam without reaching an agreement with Egypt,” said Hani Ahmed, a 21-year-old university student. “So far, the Egyptian government favors diplomacy in the hope of resolving the dispute with Ethiopia peacefully.”

Last month, Egypt asked the UN Security Council to intervene to help resolve the dam dispute with Addis Ababa. Addressing the Security Council, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said the massive dam — Africa’s largest — endangers Egypt’s survival. He warned that filling the GERD without an agreement with downstream countries would heighten tension and provoke crises and conflicts in the region.

Ongoing Tension Over the Nile

The Nile River has been a source of geographical tension between the Egypt and Ethiopia. In 1979, the two countries nearly went to war when Cairo responded to Ethiopian efforts to build a dam by amassing troops in nearby Sudan. And in 1994, Egypt threatened military action against Ethiopia when Addis Ababa revealed plans for the construction of a dam on the Nile.

The latest round of African Union-sponsored talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to reach an agreement ended in a deadlock. The Egyptian Presidency, however, said on July 21 that the leaders of the three countries agreed to continue their talks for reaching a “binding legal agreement on the rules for filling and operating” the dam.

Egyptian Accusation: Ethiopia is Using the Dam as a ‘Political Tool’ to Blackmail Egypt

Former Irrigation Minister Mohamed Nasr Allam accused Ethiopia of wasting time in an attempt to avoid reaching a binding agreement with Egypt over the dam. In statements, Allam said Ethiopia was using the dam project as a “political tool in order to impose control over Egypt, extract concessions and undermine its standing in the region”.

On July 19, Egypt’s National Security Council held a meeting to discuss the results of talks with Ethiopia over the GERD. A statement issued following the meeting reiterated Egypt’s resolve to reaching a comprehensive agreement on the rules of filling and operating the dam “in a way that guarantees the water rights and development for the three countries and maintains regional security and stability.”

Inability to Come to an Agreement

Earlier this year, the three countries held talks in Washington under the US auspices to resolve the dam dispute. Ethiopia, however, refused to sign a final agreement. On July 22 Foreign Policy magazine, citing officials and congressional aides, said the Donald Trump administration was weighing withholding some aid to Ethiopia over the dam project.

For Ahmed, the university student, the issue is still in Egypt’s hands, thanks to the strength of the Egyptian military.

“The River Nile has always been a lifeline for the Egyptians and we can’t allow Ethiopia to enforce its will on us,” he said. “If the situation reached a dead end, I’m confident that Egyptian army will be there to solve the dispute for good.”

L'articolo Nile Dam Dispute with Ethiopia is Boosting Egyptian Patriotism proviene da InsideOver.

The construction of a wall on the border between Egypt’s Sinai and the Palestinian Gaza Strip is nearly complete, after Egyptian authorities stepped up work on it with the aim of shielding Sinai against infiltration by jihadists from Gaza.

Closing Down Egypt’s Vulnerable Entry Point

Salafist jihadists from Gaza used to enter Sinai using a network of smuggling tunnels and a porous border with the Egyptian territory. Once in Egypt they would join Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorists operating in the Sinai region.

The wall construction started in 2014 to make Sinai inaccessible for the jihadists and make it difficult for ISIS terrorists to cross into Gaza and seek escape from Egyptian army attacks. The construction of the wall is part of a broader crackdown by the Egyptian army on tunnels between Sinai and Gaza. The tunnels were used in past decades in the smuggling of goods and arms to and from Sinai.

In recent years, they were also used in the infiltration into Sinai by Gazan jihadists and for travel into Gaza by ISIS terrorists to seek medical treatment in the Palestinian territory.

Stopping Infiltration With a Wall

The presence of a wall on the border between Sinai and Gaza is necessary for the protection of security in Sinai, especially with the Sinai branch of ISIS teaming up with Salafi jihadists in the Palestinian territory, as security analysts report.

The Gaza-ruling Hamas movement has long struggled to secure the joint border with Egypt. However, Hamas’ attempt to secure the border and prevent the smuggling of militants into Sinai can land it in trouble, given the alliance between ISIS Sinai and some jihadist factions in Gaza.

“This is why constructing such a wall is important,” said retired Egyptian police general, Ali Hefzi. “The presence of this wall will offer solutions to the infiltration of these militants into Sinai.”

A Tall Order for the Egyptian Military

The Egyptian army spent a sizable amount of resources on the construction of the wall which extends over 12 kilometers, covering most of the joint border between Sinai and the Gaza Strip. The wall is six meters high and five meters deep underground. This means that it can be an effective mechanism against the renewed digging of tunnels along the border.

Egypt has destroyed hundreds of smuggling tunnels on the border with Gaza in the past years. Some of the tunnels were difficult to find, having begun in Gaza and ended inside the homes of some Sinai Bedouins.

“These tunnels posed a real threat to security in Sinai,” said security expert Hossam Suweilam.

Egypt’s Successful Strategy

The construction of the wall on the border with Gaza is only one measure in a series of others taken by Cairo to secure Sinai and end the threat of militancy in it. The Egyptian army has been fiercely cracking down on this militancy for over five years now, having deployed all army branches in the territory which also shares borders with Israel.

Apart from deploying tens of thousands of ground troops, the army also uses the air force and the navy to besiege the ISIS terrorists and prevent them from receiving supplies. This strategy has so far succeeded in trimming the power of ISIS, which is a vital reason for the failure of the terrorist group in maintaining attacks against army and police posts in Sinai.

This does not mean, however, that ISIS is over because the group is sometimes capable of staging deadly attacks. On April 30, it killed two army officers and eight conscripts in a bomb attack on an armored vehicle in the North Sinai city of Beir al-Abd.

Big Plans for Sinai

Sinai has always been absent from Egypt’s development agenda. Larger in size than Israel, the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian West Bank and Lebanon combined, Sinai is inhabited by only 600,000 people.

The Egyptian government wants to relocate between 3 and 5 million citizens to Sinai. To do this, it is spending billions of dollars on the development of the territory. The development projects implemented include dozens of roads, hospitals and schools. They also include tens of thousands of flats, and tourist and industrial facilities.

“A comprehensive development plan is being implemented in Sinai,” said economist Zeinab Anwar. “However, this development cannot be completed without the eradication of the terrorist threat in it.”

L'articolo Egypt Tightens Control Over Sinai With New Border Wall proviene da InsideOver.

Egypt has received a new advanced submarine from Germany, raising speculation about its naval expansion and modernization plans. The new Type 209/1400 underwater craft, delivered on April 9, is Egypt’s third of four manufactured by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems.

Egypt’s 2014 Naval Contract with Germany’s ThyssenKrupp

The German provider of naval vessels, surface ships and submarines as well as a number of other products including elevators, is constructing the submarines in the light of a 2014 contract with Egypt. The Egyptian navy received the first submarine of this type in December 2016 and the second in August 2017.

ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems says it will deliver the fourth submarine to Egypt in 2021.

Egypt Eyeing Major Naval Upgrade

Egypt’s acquisition of the new submarines is an important milestone on the road of the modernization of its navy. The administration of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is investing billions of dollars on the modernization of the Egyptian military, in general, and the navy, in particular, despite Egypt’s tough economic realities.

According to Egyptian army spokesman, Col. Tamer al-Rifae, the team that would operate the submarine had already received training in Germany.

“The members of the team completed the training in a record time,” al-Rifae wrote in a statement on April 9.

Important Addition to Egypt’s Navy

The new submarine is a diesel-electric attack underwater craft. It was developed by the German shipbuilding company, Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft, which is part of the ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems group.

It is the most recent version of the Class 209 family (209/1100, 209/1200, 209/1300, 209/1400 and 209/1500) in a line of 63 boats contracted with 14 international navies. It is a compact craft that features the most recent technology, high combat strength, extraordinary battery payload and low signatures.

Its comprehensive mission profiles include surveillance and intelligence gathering tasks and it is particularly well-suited for Special Forces operations. The submarine has an overall length of 61.2 meters and a surfaced displacement of 1,280 tons. It is armed with 8 bow 533 mm torpedo tubes and 14 torpedoes. This submarine can be armed with a variety of torpedo models.

Facing Down the Terrorist Threat

The delivery of the new underwater craft comes at a time of major change in the region. Egypt has a coastline extending over 2,000 kilometers on the Mediterranean Sea and on the Red Sea. Nevertheless, threats to the security of this coastline are assuming a new nature at a time of new alliances and enmities.

The emergence of terrorism as a threat to nation states is being taken very seriously in Egypt, with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) having an active branch in Egypt’s Sinai.

Egypt’s navy plays a central part in counterterrorism operations, especially with the local ISIS branch receiving a sizeable amount of its supplies through the sea.

Eastern Mediterranean Security

Developments in the region in the past few years make it necessary for Egypt to increase dependence on its navy to protect its own interests.

Egypt is becoming party to the emerging natural gas wealth in the Eastern Mediterranean. In 2015, the Italian state-owned company Eni discovered a gigantic gas field off Egypt’s Mediterranean coast. The field now gives Egypt almost half of its production, but Cairo made other significant discoveries later that are increasing the national natural gas production.

Egypt needs, however, to protect this wealth against recurrent threats, especially from Turkey which is militarily interfering in neighboring Libya and tries to institute itself as a main player in the Eastern Mediterranean region.

Turkey, an ideological and regional adversary of Egypt, says regional states have to get permission from it if they want to extend pipelines or explore for gas, citing a maritime boundary delimitation deal it signed with Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Accord.

Growing Iranian Presence

Egypt’s navy is also instrumental in the protection of the international maritime movement in the Red Sea and through the Suez. Nonetheless, growing Iranian interference in Yemen, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the southern entrance of the Red Sea has turned into a formidable threat to this freedom of movement.

The Iran-backed Houthi militia, which has overrun most of Yemen, threatens navigation in the southern entrance of the Red Sea and through the strait, having attacked oil tankers several times in the past years.

Egypt has deployed some of its naval units near the strait and opened a military base on its southern Red Sea coast with the aim of keeping threats at bay and protecting the Suez Canal. The presence of a modern powerful navy, security analysts say, is a matter of utmost importance for carrying out this mission.

L'articolo Egypt Boosts Navy With New German Submarine proviene da InsideOver.

Former Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak died on 25 February 2020 at the age of 91. Climbing the ranks towards the top of the national army, he was Egypt’s president for almost three decades, before losing his grip on power in just 18 days.

L'articolo Who Was Hosni Mubarak proviene da InsideOver.

Egypt’s counterterrorism efforts received a big boost on March 13 when Egyptian army troops succeeded in killing a senior commander of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Sinai. Abu Fares al-Ansari, the ISIS emir in the North Sinai city of Rafah, was reportedly hiding in the southern part of the city together with five other organization leaders when army troops raided the area. When they saw the troops approaching, al-Ansari and other ISIS militants opened fire, but the battle ended in the killing of al-Ansari along with five of his militants.

Seminal Event

Al-Ansari was the mastermind of a large number of the attacks against the Egyptian army and Egyptian police in the past months. He is the latest in a long series of senior ISIS officers killed in Sinai in the past years since Egypt started cracking down on the terrorist organization in Sinai.

His killing will significantly weaken ISIS Sinai, but will not be enough to eradicate it or totally end its presence in the Egyptian territory, security analysts said.

“The problem is that terrorist activities are not usually contingent on one commander or another,” security expert Magdi Bassiouni said. “Terrorist organizations are always able to draw in recruits and compensate losses.”

Like-minded experts say the killing of ISIS caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in October 2019 weakened the terrorist organization. Nevertheless, al-Baghdadi’s killing did not cause the collapse or the end of his organization, they add.

The Formidable Threat of ISIS in Egypt

ISIS took root in Sinai in late 2014, when a homegrown terrorist organization known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (Guardians of the al-Aqsa Mosque) swore allegiance to al-Baghdadi.

Since then, the terrorist organization has been growing and attracting recruits in Sinai. Some of the recruits arrived from the Gaza Strip through a network of smuggling tunnels between Sinai and the coastal Palestinian territory. Others arrived from Syria and Iraq at the orders of the ISIS leadership in the two countries to prop up the ISIS command in Sinai. ISIS staged a large number of attacks on Egyptian army and police posts in North Sinai. It also scared Christians out of some of North Sinai cities and made these cities no-go areas for members of various Sinai tribes.

Comprehensive Operation

The Egyptian army countered the rise in ISIS attacks by fiercely cracking down on the terrorist organization.

In February of 2018 the army launched an all-out operation against the organization Codenamed “Sinai 2018.” The operation included participation of all of Egypt’s military including the air force and the navy. It also included a comprehensive siege over Sinai to prevent the terrorists from either receiving supplies or escaping the Egyptian territory. The operation should have taken a few months to complete, but the army command had to extend it more than one time.

Success of Operation Sinai 2018

The operation is paying off, despite difficulties. The success of the operation is manifest in the noticeable drop in the number of attacks ISIS is able to carry out against army and police posts. Behind the drop in the number of attacks is the ability of the army and police to kill a large number of the commanders of ISIS, including senior commanders like al-Ansari.

In 2019, army troops killed 353 ISIS terrorists. They also seized 791 vehicles of different types and destroyed 268 four-wheel drives, according to official figures. On March 16, army troops killed six ISIS terrorists during a raid on their hideout in North Sinai.

The success of Egypt’s counterterrorism strategy in Sinai, observers said, boils down to the killing of the senior leaders of the terrorist organization.

“This contributed to the weakening of the terrorist organization to a great deal,” said Nabil Naeem, an expert in militancy. “The army and police are now dealing only with the junior officers of the organization after they killed most of its senior leaders.”

L'articolo Egypt Kills Senior ISIS Leader In Sinai proviene da InsideOver.

The future of talks between Egypt and Ethiopia on the latter’s gigantic Nile River dam is uncertain after Ethiopia absented itself from a recent meeting on the dam in Washington.

What Happened?

The foreign and water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan were scheduled to meet in the U.S. capital on February 27 and 28 to sign a final and important deal on the dam, following four months of talks sponsored by the White House and the World Bank. The deal determines regulations for the filling of the dam reservoir and its operation, as well as mechanisms for dealing with droughts and disputes between Ethiopia and the two downstream states, Egypt and Sudan. However, Ethiopia did not send its delegation to the meeting, giving rise to fears about what the future may hold in the stalemate over the Ethiopian project.

Egyptian Anger

Egypt has been trying to get Ethiopia to commit to signing a deal on the dam for several years now. The Nile River is the only source of water for Egypt’s population of 100 million. It gives Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters of water every year, but this is around 30% below national needs. The same share has also been the same over the years, while the population keeps growing.

The dam will significantly lessen the amounts of water arriving in Egypt, further exacerbating its water shortages. The prospect of reduced water revenues from the Nile puts Egypt’s agricultural sector in peril, threatens the nation’s livestock, and opens the door for water shortage-induced social and political unrest.

Previous Attempts to Reach a Deal

The two countries started negotiating over the dam five years ago, but failed to reach a deal. In March 2015, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan signed a declaration of principles on water sharing. The same document allows the three countries to seek international mediation in case of their failure to reach a deal. In October last year, Cairo demanded mediation from the U.S. and the World Bank.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury held a series of meetings with the delegations of the three countries since then. The meetings culminated in a deal that should have been signed by the three states during the February 27-28 meeting. However, the Ethiopian delegation was nowhere to be found.

Egypt initialed the deal on February 28. It also criticized the Ethiopian absence, describing it as “unjustified.”

“Egyptian institutions will deal with this issue with all due seriousness and defend the interests of the Egyptian people with all available means,” the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

US Warning for Ethiopia

The U.S. Department of the Treasury said Ethiopia should not fill the dam reservoir before signing the deal with Egypt and Sudan. It added in a statement on February 28 that it looked forward to Ethiopia’s conclusion of its process of national consultations on the deal with Egypt and Sudan as soon as possible to provide for its signing at the earliest possible time. Final testing and filling of the dam reservoir, the Department of the Treasury said, should not take place without an agreement.

“We also note the concern of downstream populations in Sudan and Egypt due to unfinished work on the safe operation of the dam, and the need to implement all necessary dam safety measures in accordance with international standards before filling begins,” the statement said.

It added that the U.S. is committed to remain engaged with the three countries until they sign the final agreement.

The Department of the Treasury noted that an agreement would be transformational for the region, resulting in significant cross-border cooperation, regional development and economic integration, and improvement in the lives of the more than 250 million people of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan.

Ethiopian Persistence

Ethiopia countered the Egyptian criticism and the U.S. warning against filling the dam reservoir before signing the agreement by saying that it would start filling the dam reservoir in July. In a joint statement, the Ethiopian water and foreign ministers expressed disappointment over the statement of the Department of the Treasury.

“Ethiopia had notified Egypt, Sudan, and the US that it needed more time to deliberate on the process,” the ministers said.

The dam is Ethiopia’s national mega project. Addis Ababa says the project is necessary for social and economic development in Ethiopia. Ethiopia is investing close to $4 billion in the construction of the dam. It should generate 5150 megawatts of electrical power after its completion and full operation in 2021.

The foreign and water ministers of Ethiopia said in their statement that their country would commence first filling of the dam reservoir in parallel with the construction of the dam in accordance with the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization and the causing of no significant harm as provided for under the 2015 declaration of principles with Egypt and Sudan.

“Ethiopia does not accept the characterization that the negotiation on the Guidelines and Rules on the First Filling and Annual Operation of the dam is completed,” the two ministers said.

They added that the text initialed by Egypt in Washington is not the outcome of the negotiation or the technical and legal discussion of the three countries.

“Ethiopia is set to fill the dam reservoir step by step with a maximum period of seven years,” the ministers said. “According to the plan, the first round of filling the dam will begin in July this year,” they added.

L'articolo Uncertain Future For Nile Dam Talks After Ethiopia Skips Crucial Meeting proviene da InsideOver.

Intelligence chiefs from almost all the Arab states gathered in the Egyptian capital of Cairo on February 22 and 23 to discuss growing threats to the security of Arab states and to formulate improved mechanisms for cooperation and intelligence sharing.

The meeting, the first of a kind, came at a time of unprecedented challenges for the security of Arab states, ones posed by the emergence of terrorism as a threat to nation states. Called the “Arab Intelligence Forum”, the two-day event focused on the formulation of security policies and mechanisms in the face of terrorist groups, some of which threaten to wipe some Arab states off the map.

Deep Concerns in Arab World

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met the intelligence chiefs and top intelligence officers attending the forum at the presidential palace in eastern Cairo on February 22. Following the meeting, Sisi underscored the importance of cooperation between intelligence agencies in Arab states with the aim of eradicating threats to Arab security. The forum — analysts said — reflects Egypt’s growing concern over the security situation in its vicinity and in the Arab region in general.

Egypt’s Alarming Security Situation

Egypt is at the heart of a changing world and the populous Arab country has to act to protect itself against rampant unrest around it. The situation in neighboring Libya is especially worrying to Egypt, with the North African state turning into a hotspot of terrorism and militancy. Egypt shares an extended border with Libya, one whose protection requires the utilization of huge financial and military resources.

Turkish interference in Libya is especially worrying to Cairo, particularly with Turkey sending Syrian mercenaries to Libya to help the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord stop the advance of the National Libyan Army towards Tripoli.

Egypt’s Significant Internal Dangers

Egypt has an ongoing fight against a branch of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Sinai. The local ISIS branch is mainly active in small parts of North Sinai, but Egyptian authorities are afraid that the ISIS militants could push further into more parts of Sinai, which would threaten the security of the Suez Canal and Cairo.

Ongoing operations by the Egyptian army have succeeded in reducing the capabilities of the ISIS terrorists to almost nothing. Nevertheless, the terrorists are still capable of staging attacks, including on police and army outposts in North and Central Sinai. Some of the fighters within ISIS ranks come from other countries, especially from Syria. Some of the fighters also come from the Palestinian Gaza Strip.

This is where Egypt needs cooperation with other regional intelligence agencies, analysts said. Cairo wants to cooperate with these agencies in stopping the flow of foreign fighters into it, they added.

Terrorist Influx into the Sahel and North Africa After the Defeat of ISIS in Syria

Tens of thousands of terrorists are on the run in the region, after the collapse of the ISIS caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Most of the terrorists are arriving in North Africa. They are also arriving in the Sahel and Sahara region.

Egypt has been trying to militarily empower the countries of the region, having hosted a number of training programs for regional troops in it. It also established a new counterterrorism command center for the region in its new administrative capital on the outskirts of Cairo.

Egypt’s fear is that terrorist groups active in the region and in some parts of west and east Africa will team up with others who are active in North Africa. This will threaten Egyptian security, the security of the Mediterranean and Europe’s security as well.

“This makes intelligence-sharing among regional intelligence agencies a matter of extreme importance,” said Hussein Abu Atta, the head of the liberal Egyptians’ Party. “Egypt has to watch security developments around it very closely and cautiously.”

L'articolo Top Arab Spies Meet In Cairo To Discuss Terrorism proviene da InsideOver.

In early February, a mysterious disease hit Nigeria with symptoms varying from vomiting to diarrhea. The unknown illness killed 15, and a senator in the country claimed that numerous people were infected within 48 hours, as the Independent reported.

“By February 3, “the number of persons affected with the strange endemic has risen to 104,” said Senator Abba Moro.

Nigeria’s Health Minister, Osagie Ehanire, said last Friday that the disease is neither Ebola nor Lassa, but is caused by viruses that potentially cause a lethal outbreak and once occurred in West Africa.

WHO extends an emergency status for Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The ongoing Ebola outbreak still poses a threat in Africa as the World Health Organization (WHO) prolonged an emergency status for the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) after the most recent outbreak in August 2018. Since then, the illness has claimed over 2,300 lives in eastern DR Congo-which is prone to an insurgency from militia groups operating there.

Ebola was first discovered in Africa in 1976. The virus lives initially in an animal’s body and then infects humans through an animal’s contaminated blood. Also, the virus causes symptoms such as fever, headache, and appetite loss.

“Since the year 2000, one or two outbreaks of Ebola were identified every year in Africa. One hypothesis is that close contact with bats or bat caves, hunting and eating bush meat may all cause human infections. Once human infection occurs person to person transmission is common if close contact occurs between patient and unprotected people,” Professor Eyal Leshem, Director of the Center for Travel Medicine and Tropical Diseases at Sheba Medical Center, told InsideOver in an email interview.

Leshem added that the geopolitical situation has halted the handling of the Ebola outbreak, hoping that a quarantine and a travel restriction on affected areas can help curbing the Ebola epidemic.

Containment of the current Ebola virus outbreak is especially challenging due to the geopolitical and socio-demographic conditions in DRC – Uganda border region which is the epicenter. While the epidemic curve peaked nearly eight months ago, multiple cases are continuously diagnosed in affected regions and local conflict hampers containment efforts. Hopefully travel restrictions and quarantine imposed on affected areas along with international and local government efforts will be successful in stopping and preventing spread to other African countries.

Both Outbreaks Occurred Amid the New Coronavirus Pandemic

The mystery illness and Ebola epidemic both occurred amid the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, which has infected more than 20 countries so far. On Saturday, February 15, Africa reported its first case of coronavirus infection in Egypt.

Egypt’s Health Ministry revealed that a foreigner was the first patient of COVID-19 in the country. The patient was already put in an isolation room as the authority reported to the WHO.

COVID-19 has killed more than 1,500, primarily in China, and infected more than 60,000 globally. The WHO also announced the outbreak an international emergency and is still unsure when the epidemic will end.

The symptoms of COVID-19, which was believed to start in a seafood market in Wuhan China, are fever, runny nose, cough, and can lead to breathing difficulty, almost similar to those of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which claimed nearly 800 lives worldwide in 2002-2003.

Coronavirus Spreads Quickly and Can be Deadly

Some experts claimed that the SARS mortality rate is much higher than that of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 spreads more quickly as it had killed more than 500 in month while it took four months for SARS to sicken 1,000.

“Viral spread is a combination of mechanism of transmission – in the case of COVID – 19 by droplets and close contact with symptomatic patients and patient secretions most probably and of the infective load needed to infect a person,” Leshem explained when asked about the quick widespread of the virus.

Africa Has Admitted it is Not Ready to Deal With Coronavirus

The WHO disclosed Africa’s vulnerability to the COVID-19 due to its inadequate health care facilities. The Geneva-based institution has sent kits to 29 laboratories on the continent, aimed at making sure that those laboratories can test reagents shipped from China and Europe, as BBC reported.

“We know how fragile the health system is on the African continent and these systems are already overwhelmed by many ongoing disease outbreaks, so for us it is critical to detect earlier so that we can prevent the spread,” Michael Yao, WHO’s head of emergency operations in Africa, told BBC.

Zambia is one of the countries in Africa that the WHO is monitoring closely due to its frequent business trips to China. One of the Chinese companies operating in Zambia is based in Wuhan, where the COVID-19 infection started. Hundreds of workers have traveled from and to China and Zambia in the past few weeks alone.

“Some countries in Africa are suffering from limited public health resources and underfunded healthcare systems. Sustained transmission of COVID 19 in one of the large cities of Africa such as Lagos, or Kinshasa may result tens of thousands of infections and thousands of deaths due to lack of resources to contain the outbreak and treat high number of patients,” Leshem explained. “The World Health Organization is supporting local governments in Africa to prepare for COVID 19 introduction and donor countries should provide emergency funding. Global health security is being discussed for years, and preparedness funding is in place, so hopefully, activities to scale up surveillance are underway in Africa as in other continents,” he added.

L'articolo Multiple Outbreaks Hit Africa Besides New Coronavirus proviene da InsideOver.