Joe Biden has become the 46th President of the United States. Shortly before noon EST on Jan. 20, Biden was sworn in and delivered an impressive inaugural speech that not only marked a profound contrast to Donald Trump’s tone in recent years but contained one central message: unity.

‘Democracy Has Prevailed’

Biden said that there could be no peace without unity and no progress in his inaugural address, only bitterness and anger. He pledged to work with all his heart for unity and reconciliation.

“With unity, we can do great things, important things,” said Biden. “This is our moment in history. And unity is the way forward.” American had overcome past challenges with unity.

“I will be a president to all Americans,” Biden promised, including for those who did not vote for him – extending his arms to Trump voters. “This is the day of democracy.” It is not a candidate’s victory that was celebrated, but the victory of democracy. “Democracy has prevailed.”

Remembering the Victims of COVID-19

Biden also remembered the people who had lost their lives in the coronavirus pandemic. He denounced the inequality between the ethnic groups and called on his fellow citizens to rethink: “Let’s make a fresh start, everyone together.”

Even though the president did not mention his predecessor by name, it was apparent that Biden was focused on a fundamental departure from the past four years’ political spirit and about a paradigm shift, a return to normalcy.

Biden also spoke out against the spread of false reports and conspiracy theories, which had caused the country tremendous problems: “We have to reject the culture in which facts are manipulated and even fabricated,” he said. America must be better than that.

And he also promised America’s partners a fresh start – “we will go into the world again”, he said and announced that the USA would be a “strong partner for security and peace.”

An Unprecedented Inauguration

Biden’s inauguration at the Capitol took place under unprecedented security precautions. Two weeks ago, violent supporters of Donald Trump stormed the building. The fear of further violence was, therefore, significant. The center of Washington was cordoned off on a large scale. In addition to numerous police officers, thousands of the National Guard members were deployed. Instead of hundreds of thousands of spectators, around 200,000 small US flags represented the people in and around the National Mall. But despite appearances by Lady Gaga and Jennifer Lopez, the presence of 25,000 National Guardsmen in the capital always reminded one of the carnage the country had recently faced.

Biden takes over the most powerful office in the world in an unprecedented time of crisis. With more than 400,000 coronavirus-related deaths, the US is the country with the highest number of victims worldwide and is in a devastating economic crisis.

In regular times, Biden’s day would have ended with attending numerous inaugural balls in Washington. Today, Biden has already announced a whole series of decisions for the first day intended to mark a break with Trump’s politics – for example, on the fight against the coronavirus, racism, and climate policy. Biden knows he has to hurry, as the pressure is on from day one.

Fortunately for him, Democrats now possess majorities in the Senate and the House. Most of Biden’s plans are thus fairly conceivable to realize. However, part of Biden’s presidency will emphasize bipartisan efforts to tackle the crises ahead. His attendance of a church service in Washington with Democratic and Republican congressional leaders, including powerful Republican Senator Mitch McConnell prior to his inaugural on Wednesday morning, was a first powerful sign in this direction.

“It’s a new day in America,” wrote Biden on Twitter.

Whether unity amongst the parties is temporary or achievable remains to be seen – and the upcoming Trump impeachment trial in the Senate will be the first litmus test.

L'articolo Joe Biden Becomes the 46th President of the United States proviene da InsideOver.

With Joe Biden’s presidency, further positive progress is expected to occur in the Middle East. However, the region’s future under Biden could also get a lot worse.

This is particularly likely if a new nuclear deal with Iran and the US starts to fade and military options rise to the foreground.

A New Middle East

When Joe Biden takes office as President on Wednesday, he will hardly recognize the Middle East. When he left office four years ago, the Arab states were deeply divided, but the greatest danger was averted: a war over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Today it is the other way around, the Arab nations have arranged themselves into a fairly united power bloc, but Iran’s nuclear program is in full swing.

It raises the question of what tasks lie ahead for Biden. Moreover, any action Biden may or may not take will have far-reaching implications for the region and Europe. After all, part of the EU is now within the range of Iranian missiles, and Berlin and Paris are part of the current Iranian nuclear deal.

The shift in the Middle East is perfectly demonstrated when looking at Israel. It received three gifts from Trump during his tenure. He relocated the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Jerusalem as the capital and settlements in the West Bank, and facilitated normalization agreements between the Arab states, including Sudan, to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. As a result, Netanyahu doesn’t care much about the Palestinians now. He doesn’t have to give them anything anymore because he himself has practically everything he wants, all while Israel will now continue to grow into the supreme power in the region.

Internal Divisions Still Remain

On the other hand, the Arabs are united on the outside but are still divided internally. Ten years after the start of the Arab uprisings, the new problems are still the old ones: corruption, harassment, unemployment, a lack of prospects, a regime of fear. The end of the Emiratis and Saudis’ blockade against Qatar, the continued subsidization of Egypt by the Gulf Arabs may look like unity. But Iraqis and Saudis, Syrians and Jordanians, Emiratis and Qataris continue to distrust each other.

What brings them together is not America or Israel, but the Iranian threat.

This threat is weaker today than when Trump took office. The harsh economic sanctions have drained the country, and strengthening Israel automatically weakens Iran. But all of this comes at a high price: Iran has restarted its nuclear program and announced that it wants to enrich uranium that is suitable for nuclear weapons to 20 percent. According to the 2016 nuclear agreement, only 3.67 percent were allowed.

This is so dangerous because the step from 3.67 percent to 20 percent is the decisive one. From that level, Iran can quickly enrich itself to a level that would open the way to manufacture nuclear weapons. A law that the hardliners crammed through in Tehran also wants to limit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In doing so, they apparently want to rule out a return to the nuclear agreement from the outset.

If Joe Biden seeks to prevent escalation, he must act very quickly after taking office to revive the nuclear agreement and bring the principle of disarmament back to the Middle East. He doesn’t have much time. The Iranians celebrate Newroz in March, after which the campaigns for the presidential election begin in June. Meanwhile, the hardliners will push the fortification forward as fast as possible.

If things go the way that Iranian radicals want only military options will be on the table by this autumn instead of a nuclear deal. Biden would then face a perilous conflict, to which Trump arguably lit the fuse.

L'articolo Joe Biden in the Middle East proviene da InsideOver.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has claimed that Iran is the new home of the al-Qaeda terrorist network. While he did not provide any concrete evidence, his statement serves a very different purpose than upholding US national security. Iran’s Foreign Minister has rejected Pompeo’s allegations.

Serious New Accusations Against Iran

In its final days in office, the outgoing Trump administration is increasing pressure on Iran and accusing the country of supporting al-Qaeda.

“Al Qaeda has a new home base: it is the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Pompeo said during a recent speech in Washington.

According to Pompeo, Tehran has allowed the terrorist organization to use Iran as a base to carry out tasks and attacks that were previously carried out from Afghanistan and Pakistan since 2015.

“Iran is indeed the new Afghanistan for al-Qaeda,” Pompeo said, adding that in fact the situation was worse than in Afghanistan, since Al Qaeda was hiding there in the mountains, while in Iran, it operates under the “protection of the Iranian regime.”

According to Pompeo, Iran has allowed al Qaeda greater freedom of movement, including issuing travel documents.

“Tehran has allowed al Qaeda to raise money, communicate freely with other members around the world,” said Pompeo.

In his speech, Pompeo also confirmed a report in the New York Times that al-Qaeda’s number two was killed in Tehran last year. However, he did not comment on who carried out the attack.

Is There Proof of Pompeo’s Claims?

Pompeo did not provide any evidence that al-Qaeda has its new center in Iran. However, the secretary of state, who is considered a close ally of President Donald Trump, offered up to seven million dollars as a reward for information on Iran’s al-Qaeda leadership.

Pompeo’s statements have also aroused considerable astonishment, since the majority Shiite Iran and the Sunni terror organization are opponents from a religious point of view, despite their mutual hostility to the US. However, in the past few years, there have indeed been repeated but unverifiable reports that al-Qaeda fighters are said to have gone into hiding in Iran.

The US government has long accused the Shiite leadership in Tehran of supporting Shiite militias in the Middle East, such as Lebanon and Iraq. However up until now Washington has not accused Iran so clearly of supporting groups of Sunni extremists.

Iran Reacts by Denying All Allegations

Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif immediately dismissed Pompeo’s allegations via Twitter and indirectly accused US ally Saudi Arabia of being the real haven for terrorists.

Pompeo has advocated a tough line against Iran during his tenure. A renewed diplomatic rapprochement between the two states is expected under President-elect Joe Biden, however, the White House is currently trying to make this possibility devastatingly small prior to Biden’s inauguration.

While Pompeo’s words may be accurate, they primarily serve a renewed attempt at provocation at this stage. Iran’s political situation remains highly volatile. Hardliners seek to steer the country away from the West again by winning the upcoming elections in June against reformists. Their goal is to end the nuclear deal.

Pompeo’s words are grist to the hardliners’ mills and, at the same time, an obstacle to Biden’s plan to persuade Iran to give in and let the US back into the nuclear deal.

L'articolo Iran is al-Qaeda’s New Base of Operations, According to Mike Pompeo proviene da InsideOver.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard recently announced that they have been working on an underground missile program. The timing is no coincidence.

Why is Iran Revealing Their New Missile Program Now?

Amid heightened tensions with the US and Israel, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the completion of an underground missile base in the Persian Gulf, though without specifying the exact location.

“The base is one of several of these types that house strategic missiles,” said the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Major General Hossein Salami. “These projectiles have a range of several hundred kilometers and are very accurate,” he added.

At the beginning of July 2020, the Revolutionary Guard announced that they had built underground “on- and offshore missile cities” in the Persian Gulf in order to “deter the country’s enemies from military aggression.” In July, the Guard said they had successfully conducted tests in the region underground ballistic missiles and a military satellite.

“The underground missiles hidden deep underground were fired successfully and without a launchpad,” said Amir-Ali Hajisadeh, Iran’s aerospace department commander. State television showed videos and pictures.

Iran’s Government Likes to Showcase the Nation’s Military Prowess

There are repeated reports in Iran of new military achievements. However, most cannot be independently verified. Iran has one of the most extensive missile programs in the region and calls it an essential part of a deterrence strategy and retaliatory option. On the other hand, the West sees missiles as a threat to regional stability and potential delivery systems for nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, according to its supreme spiritual leader, the Islamic Republic is not insisting on the US returning to the Vienna International Nuclear Agreement but is still calling for the US sanctions to be lifted. It is not about “whether America comes back or not; we are in no hurry, and we do not insist on her return,” said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. “Our rational and logical demand is the lifting of the brutal sanctions.”

“If the other party is practically not fulfilling any of its obligations, it is not logical for the Islamic Republic to honor all of its obligations,” Khamenei said in a speech on television. “When the US returns to its commitments, we will return to ours.”

What’s Next For the Iran Nuclear Deal and Iran’s Relationship with the West?

The 2015 nuclear deal aims to ensure that Iran does not acquire the capabilities to build a nuclear bomb. US President Donald Trump, who was voted out in November, unilaterally terminated the agreement, which he considered inadequate, in May 2018 and then put new tough sanctions against Tehran into force.

So far, he has tried in vain to persuade Tehran to make concessions on the nuclear and missile program and to support local militias. Since then, Iran has also gradually withdrawn from the agreement. Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, agreed to return to the agreement, provided that Iran strictly adhered to the conditions.

Other parties to the deal, notably Germany, Britain, and France, have urged Iran to return to its commitments. It was only on Monday that Tehran officially enriched uranium to 20 percent, which is a clear violation of the nuclear agreement.

However, the situation remains complicated, especially with regard to Iran’s elections in June. President Hassan Rouhani, a reformist by Iran’s standards, cannot run again. Given that his legacy will be synonymous with the nuclear deal, he would like to agree with the US and free his country from the sanctions, which have crippled Iran’s economy and significantly decreased Rouhani’s popularity.

Meanwhile, the hardliners in the government, including former members of the Revolutionary Guard, hope to become Rouhani’s successor and end the latter’s approach of opening the country up to the West. They have thus begun to sabotage Rouhani’s tactics to prevent him from succeeding in the nuclear dispute and put themselves in a good position for the elections. After the increase in uranium enrichment and the South Korean tanker incident, the missile base is yet another piece of the puzzle for hardliners to achieve their aims.

L'articolo Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Unveils Strategic New Missile Base proviene da InsideOver.

What transpired in Washington on Wednesday was a modern-version day of infamy: Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to prevent a joint session of Congress from confirming the electoral college’s votes certifying Joe Biden as President.

After several hours of violent occupation by Trump supporters on Wednesday evening, the Capitol in Washington was declared safe again. Heavily armed police officers cleared the building and also used stun grenades and tear gas.

What Happened?

Chaotic scenes played out in the Capitol Wednesday after numerous Trump supporters made their way into the building where a joint session of Congress was getting ready to confirm the result of the presidential election in November and Joe Biden’s victory, a purely formal act.

Instead, Senators and Members of the House had to be brought to safety from an angry mob made up of extremists who call themselves patriots.

TV pictures showed how rioters smashed windows, ransacked parliamentary offices, and posed in the vacated Senate Chamber. For hours, parts of the building were in the hands of the mob. Unarmed Trump supporter Ashli Babbit sustained a gunshot wound during confrontations and died hours later.

A curfew was put into effect in Washington since 6 p.m. local time, and neighboring states also sent the National Guard and state police to the capital.

According to the police, several weapons were seized, and according to media reports, the FBI also defused at least two explosive devices.

What Caused the Riot?

The protests escalated after Trump called on his supporters during a “Stop the Steal” rally on Wednesday morning to protest against the confirmation of Congress’s election. Trump also repeated his conspiracy theory that he had been cheated out of winning the election.

When the looting started, the president tweeted, “These are things and events that happen,” claiming again that his “landslide victory” was stolen. According to Trump, his supporters were “great patriots” who have long been treated unfairly, he wrote. Previously, Trump had called on the people at the Capitol – also via Twitter – to be moderate. “Stay peaceful!” He wrote, calling on them to support the police and security forces.

After the unrest, Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube took an unusually tough stance and deleted Trump’s posts in which he again disseminated his unsubstantiated claims about electoral fraud. Twitter even blocked the president’s account for the next twelve hours. In the event of further violations, the account could be blocked entirely, the company said.

The election confirmation process continued after Vice President Mike Pence condemned the events in an unusually harsh manner.

Biden: Riots Were an ‘Unprecedented Attack’

President Joe Biden spoke of an “unprecedented attack” on US democracy. The violence must end, said Biden. “Storming the Capitol, breaking windows, occupying offices, occupying the United States Senate, rummaging through the desks of the House of Representatives in the Capitol, and threatening the safety of duly elected officials is not a protest,” Biden noted. “It’s a riot.”

Wednesday’s occurrences were the culmination of four years in which President Trump tried everything to divide America, weaponize hatred against institutions and benefit off the people’s outrage.

There is simply no denying that he is greatly responsible for one of the darkest hours in America’s history. By repeatedly claiming the election was stolen, the self-proclaimed president of law and order encouraged these insurrectionists.

In terms of actions, right now, anything should and must be on the table, from impeachment and censure, to invoking the 25th Amendment and removing the president from office.

The US will only be able to revitalize its norms that have been eroded over these past four years if it holds Donald Trump accountable. Accountable for having fulfilled his promise of not accepting a peaceful transition of power and for having turned the US into a “banana republic,” as former president George W. Bush wrote in reaction to the events that unfolded.

L'articolo Under Siege: Trump Supporters Storm the Capitol proviene da InsideOver.

Mali is becoming increasingly significant for Germany and other European allies when it comes to their foreign military deployments. German armed forces have been active in Mali since 2013, with a modest record.

A Dangerous Status Quo for Berlin

The status quo in Mali continues to be dangerous. Germany troops have been stationed in Mali for seven years, as the Sahel zone plays a pivotal role in the entire region’s stability and development.

However, despite its continuous presence, Germany’s future engagement remains a hot topic domestically, particularly as it will now move towards the country’s top agenda as far as missions abroad are concerned.

The Sahel remains a hub for terrorism and a number of large criminal organizations.

The security situation has decreased significantly over the past two years, mainly dictated by Islamist groups who continue to move freely in many parts of the country. Accordingly, the likelihood of an attack remains high. Terrorists are also active along the borders with Burkina Faso and Mauritania, while the border region between Mali and Niger remains one of the most unstable parts of the Sahel zone. Islamic State (ISIS) affiliates are operating here.

Mali’s Downward Slide

Since the mid-2020s, there have been far-reaching political developments in Mali on its downward slide to disorder. In August, the military coup was the climax of a chain of occurrences. In the capital, in particular, the circumstances had already escalated in early summer. The putsch backers then assembled a military council and declared that they did not want martial law but simply a new political start.

The coup was hardly opposed by anyone in the country, but it led to the issue of whether international troops deployed in the country would maintain their presence.

Germany had spoken of an “unconstitutional change of power,” and the Bundeswehr temporarily suspended its operations but resumed it soon after.

In principle, foreign deployments of the Bundeswehr must have a political mandate from the Bundestag.

Germany Commits to Extended Mali Troop Presence

In May, it further approved the armed forces’ engagement in Mali, which are part of two missions: at the European Union for the training of Malian armed forces (EUTM Mali) as well as for a mission of the UN (MINUSMA)

The UN mission serves to implement the peace agreement, protect the civilian population, respect human rights, and directly stabilize the situation.

A total of up to 1,100 German soldiers remains present for the UN. In total, the UN has more than 10,000 servicemen as part of its mission.

Meanwhile, the EU mission aims to created stability by a political process and economic growth, combined with national armed forces that can counter threats independently. Here, Germany has deployed 450 service members, who are training Malian armed forces.

According to an EU decision, the current location will change within the near future: A new training facility under German leadership is currently being set up in Sévaré, in Mali’s unstable center.

This moves is intended to strengthen the presence of state forces in central Mali.

Training Malian Armed Forces

Moreover, the training of Malian armed forces should take place closer to operational areas, making it more dangerous. Terrorists from the JNIM, an extremist group close to al-Qaeda, operate in the immediate vicinity. There are also new deployment plans among the German special forces who train special forces in neighboring Niger.

The corresponding bilateral mission named “Gazelle” is to be continued in the future under the EU mandate. Hence, German armed forces will operate even closer to the dangerous border region between Niger and Mali, where Islamist fighters’ terror attempts must be continuously anticipated.

Nonetheless, the missions abroad’ aim remains the same: to contain cross-border security threats, especially in the tri-border region of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

With the risk further increasing, however, the topic will become even more controversial in Germany. And with general elections being held in Autumn of 2021, a continuous German presence in Mali is all but certain.

L'articolo Germany’s Troop Presence in Mali Remains Controversial proviene da InsideOver.

Shortly before the important Senate runoff elections in Georgia, a phone call has taken place in which President Donald Trump pressured Georgia’s Secretary of State to change the state’s presidential election results. A recording of the call was released on Jan. 3 by the Washington Post.

What Did Trump Say?

On Saturday, Trump had a telephone conversation with the Secretary of State of Georgia Brad Raffensperger. During the call, Trump talked extensively about allegations of electoral fraud and requested a subsequent change in the presidential election result in Georgia.

In the one-hour phone call, Trump repeatedly and bluntly urges Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” enough votes for him and “recalculate” the result. Trump threatens Raffensperger, saying he would be taking a “great risk” and could possibly be guilty of a crime if he did not take action against the alleged election fraud.

Trump’s Close Election Loss in Georgia

Trump narrowly lost Georgia in the November 3 election, which was won by Democratic challenger Joe Biden by about 12,000 votes. The results were officially recounted twice, and despite Trump’s claims no indications of election fraud were found. During the call with Raffensperger, Trump complained about what he saw as the “wrong” result in Georgia and asserted that he had won the election.

“So look. All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state”, he said, according to the recording. It was “not fair to take our victory away,” added the president.

“There’s no way I lost Georgia,” Trump said several times during the call. “There’s no way. We won by hundreds of thousands of votes.”

Raffensperger must recheck the results, Trump demanded. But this should be done in cooperation with people who “want to find the answers”, the President added.

Raffensper to Trump: ‘the Data you Have is Wrong’

Raffensperger, however, counters Trump, taking issue with his information.

“The problem you have is that the data you have is wrong”, the Secretary of State can be heard saying: “We have to stand by our numbers. We believe our numbers are correct.” Raffensperger pointed out that the courts also confirmed the results.

Trump rejected these arguments, falling back on an emotional appeal.

“The people of Georgia are angry, the people in the country are angry,” Trump said. “And there’s nothing wrong with saying, you know, um, that you’ve recalculated.”

To date, neither the White House nor Raffensperger’s office has commented on the report. The office of President-elect Biden did not want to comment either.

The Washington Post article states the “rambling and sometimes incoherent conversation” showed how “obsessed and desperate” the president was over his electoral defeat. Trump still believes he could change the outcome in enough states to secure a second term.

After the conversation, Trump took his frustration to Twitter and called Raffensperger “clueless”.

Trump’s Rigged Election Claims are Falling Apart

This call is a final testimony — if it was ever needed in the first place — that the whole saga of a “fraudulent” election was never about doing the right thing, upholding democracy or patriotism. It has been about cheating the president into a second term, plain and simple. It is a soft coup attempt in broad daylight, that has been supported by prominent figures within Lincoln’s party, so-called defenders of American exceptionalism.

During four years in which the US, and indeed, the world, have witnessed one White House scandal after the next — most of which would have cost any other president his office — the Saturday telephone conversation is arguably Trump’s magnum opus.

It also transpires only days prior to January 6, when Congress’s joint session will confirm Biden’s electoral college votes. Several Republicans have pledged they would challenge the confirmation. While it will not affect Biden’s win, it displays how many within the GOP have now completely aligned themselves and their political future with Donald Trump and his baseless and debunked claims of a fraudulent election.

A Split GOP?

These actions are likely to cause increased frictions within the GOP as more and more Republicans are publicly opposing the president’s conduct.

Meanwhile, runoff elections for two Senate seats will also take place on Tuesday in Georgia, the result of which could overturn the majority of Republicans in the Senate.

As things stand, the Republicans have 50 seats in the Senate and the Democrats 48. The Republicans in Georgia only have to win one of the two elections to continue to hold a majority in the chamber. A Republican majority would have a significant impact on Biden’s ability to govern and effectively pass legislation.

L'articolo Trump Urges Georgia to Overturn Election Result in Bombshell Conversation proviene da InsideOver.

Japan is boosting its defense in anticipation of potential opponents in the region, via the modernization of its air and naval forces.

Suga Pledges to Continue Abe’s National-Conservative Agenda

When Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga took office in mid-September, he pledged to continue his predecessor Shinzo Abe’s national-conservative agenda. In particular this applies to Abe’s long pursued strengthening of the Japanese military. Accordingly, Japan’s defense spending will increase for the ninth year in a row, by 1.1 percent to a new record of 42.4 billion euros, resulting in five percent of overall government spending.

The focus of the new budget is on modernizing weapons systems in order to increase the country’s deterrence against its adversaries in the region such as North Korea. Approximately 266 million euros are allocated towards new missile systems, which will take five years to fully deploy and are supposed to keep enemy warships at bay via an increased range of truck-mounted missile systems located in Okinawa.

Details of Japan’s Military Hardware Upgrade

Japan is willing to invest generously in the modernization of its weaponry arsenal. The research and development of next-generation combat aircraft will cost the government 580 million euros. Six Lockheed F-35 stealth bombers will be built for a total of 515 million euros. Manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy — one of the world’s largest defense contractors — will have its hands full.

At the same time, Japan is preparing the construction of two compact destroyers, which will strengthen the sea-based defense system against missiles from North Korea. In 2021, 13.5 million euros will initially be invested here. But by their completion in 2025, the two ships will cost over four billion euros. The destroyers are intended to replace the planned land-based Aegis defense system that Abe’s previous government abandoned in the summer — officially for cost reasons. The new destroyers will receive a more powerful radar system with a range three times greater than their predecessors.

However, the upgrades and developments of new weapon systems also enliven the age-old debate in Japan regarding whether the pacifist constitution allows the use of long-range missiles. As early as 1956, politicians and constitutional lawyers discussed the legality of Japanese rocket attacks on other countries for preventive defense. Today’s scenario would be that Japan would destroy a North Korean missile on its launch site if North Korea plans an attack on Japan.

The risk here is apparent: if Japan were to misjudge such a threat, it would likely start a war, not defending itself against an attack.

US-Japan Relations

Japanese possession of medium and long-range missiles could influence the established division of labor with its security partner, the US. So far, the cooperation has been based on the “shield and sword” principle. The Japanese act as the defensive shield, while the 55,000 US soldiers stationed in Japan wield the “sword” against the enemy. But that paradigm had worn out over many years, particularly as of late, when Japan started to doubt Washington’s unconditional support under President Donald Trump. It initiated a change in its modus operandi and began seeking a more independent defense approach.

Hence, Japan is entering new legal and military territory in order to be able to defend itself against attack more effectively. A joint military maneuver between the Japanese, France, and the US in May is thus not surprising and likely only the beginning of a more active Japanese military.

In addition, a debate whether or not Japan should become a member of “Five Eyes”, the intelligence alliance of the US, Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, continues to persist. The Japanese government has neither confirmed nor denied the potential cooperation with “Five Eyes,” as it needs to consider its relationship with China.

Nonetheless, Japan is likely to continue its “peace through strength” approach in the region and the new defense budget is a testimony of exactly this.

L'articolo Japan Approves Record High Military Budget proviene da InsideOver.

Although the Islamic State’s Caliphate has been destroyed and its terrorist fighters having largely retreated underground, the group remains dangerous and ready to strike – albeit via different means.

Current Status of ISIS

ISIS was decisively defeated by an American-led international coalition, and their rein of destruction across Syria and Iraq has come to an end. The group has lost enormous financial, arms and training capability with the loss of its territory.

Many in the region who may have been inclined to join the group in earlier years had their fascination disappear with the humiliating defeat, but it is also clear that ISIS’ ability to recruit new members and organize new fighting units and battle plans has been severely degraded.

The result is a far-reaching withdrawal from both Iraq and Syria and ISIS’ loss of the ability to conduct sophisticated operations. According to reliable estimates, approximately 3,500 ISIS terrorists remain in Iraq, and a maximum of 4,000 remain in Syria.

Report: ISIS is Out of Heavy Weapons

ISIS continues to try to obtain weapons, but recently published research indicates that the organization possesses only light weapons, and has no way to obtain weapons of mass destruction. Particularly since ISIS’ financial transactions are constantly monitored and due to the subsequent loss of its financial network over the years, these acquisitions have become virtually impossible.

Its options to conduct terror attacks are also accordingly limited. Mostly they are carried out by small, mobile groups, usually no more than ten people. In addition, these attacks mainly take place in remote regions outside the cities. Usually, the focus is on fast, rather simplistic attacks.

Make No Mistake: ISIS is Still a Threat

Nevertheless, there is no reason to give the all-clear on the threat posed by ISIS. For example, elsewhere, in Europe, ISIS remains active. It has just changed its tactics.

Even in Europe, the organization is no longer capable of large-scale operations, nor can it rely on trusted members trained in the military with substantial combat experience. However, smaller attacks by individual perpetrators, such as recently in Vienna or Nice, are unfortunately still possible and even likely.

ISIS also uses these actions to show that it is still present and that it can still strike. In doing so, it is explicitly looking for new motives for mobilization and provocation that will bring in recruits, for example, the discussion about the Mohammed caricatures that led to protests and controversy in France after a school teacher was beheaded for displaying the cartoons as part of a class debate on free speech.

The ISIS Recruitment Pipeline

Often, no particular effort is required for recruiting new fighters other than a few “inspiring” videos for future terrorists. This cyber recruitment is even more practicable and often more effective than the work of extremist Qur’anic academies schools or extremist groups that are formed around a few mosques and run by like-minded preachers. This form of onlie radicalization often goes unnoticed.

In addition, ISIS is now growing its presence in Africa. In West and North Africa in particular, ISIS is currently strengthening its capabilities. Above all, tge group is making use of the chaos in Libya to grow its numbers and strategic strength. In addition to ideological mobilization, ISIS is primarily concerned with expanding smuggling routes to sub-Saharan Africa.

Although al-Qaeda currently has a more significant influence in the region, it can be assumed that ISIS’ activities in West Africa will increase despite the efforts made to counter them, and that ISIS will remain a credible threat in and outside Europe for the foreseeable future.

L'articolo ISIS Has Lost Most of its Territory But the Terrorist Group is Still a Threat proviene da InsideOver.

Governments have tried various strategies against the coronavirus. But what measures were most effective at preventing new infections? Two recent studies attempted to provide an answer.

Oxford Study Looks at Public Life in 41 Countries to Find out What Works in Fighting COVID

Governments around the world have taken drastic measures to prevent further infections with the coronavirus. There are hardly any areas of life that are not affected by closures or restrictions.

Oxford University scientists conducted an extensive study of public life in 41 countries to find out what works in preventing the spread of COVID. The study also looks at the actions taken against the pandemic in the spring.

A ban on gathering for more than ten people and the closure of schools and universities from January to May were likely the most effective measures to contain the corona pandemic, according to the study. The closing of all shops except the essential ones had only a moderate effect and the requirement to stay at home had a little additional effect.

How Was the Oxford Study Done?

To conduct their research, the scientists looked at the number of cases and the number of people who died of Covid-19.

Using a computer model, they put these figures in relation to individual measures taken against the disease’s spread, such as those taken in 34 European and seven non-European countries. The researchers measured the effectiveness by reducing the reproductive number R, which was 3.3 without government intervention.

The fact that the individual measures were decided at different times in the different countries helped the researchers calculate the individual regulations’ efficacy. Since schools and universities were closed simultaneously in almost all countries, the effect of these measures could not be calculated individually, but only as an additional effect.

How the Oxford Study Judges Efficacy

The study describes a measure as “very effective” if the calculated median value for reducing the number of reproductions is over 35 percent. This is the case with the ban on gathering for more than ten people and the closure of schools and universities.

There are significant differences between countries. As a result, the effect of the ban on assemblies is in the range of 17 to 60 percent, and the case of schools and universities being closed in the range of 16 to 54 percent.

The forced closings were moderately effective for everyone except essential businesses (27 percent).

The effect of the requirement to leave the house only for a few permitted activities could not be determined individually. As an additional measure to the others mentioned, their effect was only 13 percent.

There were also moderate effects from the assembly bans for more than 100 people (34 percent) and more than 1,000 people (23 percent). The same applies to the closing of facilities that are considered high-risk regarding the pandemic, such as gyms, nightclubs, cinemas, and restaurants (18 percent).

Additional Study Highlights Danger of Eating Out

Meanwhile, a different French study has now also given clear insights into the matter. According to a study by the Pasteur Institute in Paris, socializing with guests for dinner increases the likelihood of infection, as does staying in a restaurant or bar.

The study confirms assumptions that eating together carries a higher risk than, for example, using public transport or shopping.

The scientists examined which factors differentiated infected people from those who had not been infected with the coronavirus. To do this, they compared the test persons’ statements with regard to professions, means of transport, and places visited. In total, the researchers surveyed around 3,400 people who had contracted the virus and 1,700 people without a coronavirus infection.

Health authorities worldwide advise against meeting in crowded indoor spaces — numerous government-imposed measures such as the closure of restaurants, bars, and gyms. Scientists increasingly agree that the new virus is spread via fine particle clouds, so-called aerosols, and this happens above all in poorly-ventilated rooms.

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