It’s a move we have seen before. Like in the late 2000s, Washington is again withdrawing troops from Iraq (to 3,000) after having them deployed for more than half a decade. As in the past, that change has been pushed through by the president himself and is therefore more reflective of his own politics than the policy of the US State Department or the military.

Learning from History

But if history really is an indicator, it could be a cause of worry, not just for the US but Iraq and the wider region. As happened when Obama pulled the troops back after taking the presidency, there is a possibility that the withdrawal will leave Baghdad ill-equipped to ensure the country’s security.

Ever since the US waged war in Iraq on shaky grounds that saw the ouster of Saddam Hussein and his military brass, Iraqi forces have been in shambles. For most operational and counterinsurgency purposes, they have been heavily reliant on Washington and the coalition troops.

Rather unsurprisingly then, when Obama made almost a complete withdrawal from Iraq it left a vacuum that the local security apparatus couldn’t fill. As a result, militants gained ground and the world saw the rise of the Islamic State. The same risks are relevant today when American troops leave the country.

The Major Reduction in US Military Presence

Let’s assess the capabilities of Iraqi security forces to better understand where they stand this time and whether the US withdrawal will have a significant impact on their performance. However, before that, the relative scales must be kept in mind. When the Obama Administration announced the pulling back of troops, there were over 135,000 American boots on the ground, which were reduced to just 88,300 in 2010 before being brought down to a mere 760 in 2013.

In contrast, American presence in the wake of Islamic State rule was much more minimal, with the number of troops barely exceeding 5,000 throughout. Therefore, unlike in the past when the US security forces were quite active on the battleground, this time their role was limited to training the local military, intelligence sharing among other things.

Hence, the gap isn’t going to be as big as the last time, but big challenges remain.

Assessing the Battle-Readiness of Iraqi Troops

To begin with, much of the success of Iraqi forces in the fight against the Islamic State can be attributed to Counter Terrorism Service (CTS), an organisation that directly comes under the Iraqi Prime Minister instead of the Ministry of Defense which controls the army, and oversees the Special Operations Forces.

A 10,000 or so strong force, the CTS does not have the military mass to undertake the security of the country as a whole and is specifically trained in counterinsurgency. For that purpose, Iraq would need foot soldiers to guard its 440,000 square kilometres of territory and 4,000 km border. However, that is lacking so far.

At the moment, Baghdad has an army of just 165,000, as per Global Fire Power. This leaves a troops-to-population ratio of way below the recommended 20:1000 or 25:1000. Another speculated 200,000 or so fighters belong to the Peshmerga, but that comes under the regional Kurdish government which is not known for friendly relations with the center. It’s important to point out the existence of Popular Mobilization Forces as well, again roughly with a strength of 150,000-200,000 comprised mostly of Shiite youth and famous for its proximity to Iran. So even if the overall number of boots are plenty, they operate in silos with often opposing interests and a history of animosity.

How Self-Sufficient is CTS?

There might also be a catch to the perceived superiority of CTS: for much of its existence, it barely carried out independent operations and heavily relied on other agencies, such as the police or coalition support. Where it was on its own, for example in Ramadi in 2015, when attacked by the better-equipped ISIS, the elite unit had to defend the city for 16 months before eventually retreating.

That battle resulted in heavy losses, including many casualties and the loss of around 200 tactical vehicles, raising question marks over its self-sufficiency.

Iraqi Military Spending is Way Up

Meanwhile, Iraq’s military expenditure saw a major spike as it surged by over 20% to $7.599 billion in 2019, from $6.318 billion on a current dollar basis, according to the database of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. As a share of GDP, that represents a jump of 60 basis points to 3.5%, from 2.9%.

That increase can partly be reflected in the country’s growing appetite for new equipment. In 2017, the country bought 73 T-90 and T-90SK tanks from Russia of which over half entered its service the following year. Overall, the Iraqi army has 309 tanks, 4,739 armoured vehicles and 120 towed artillery.

The army also has to its name 135 combat aircraft and awaits deliveries for 36 more. This strength is much superior to the air force’s respective figures of 59 – mostly comprising the American F-16C and Russian Su-25 and 26, as per the latest data.

For Iraq to have a stable future, it is imperative that the country builds self sufficiency and regains its sovereignty: something that cannot coincide with the US keeping its troops deployed down there. The solution has to be political, cutting across ethnic and sectarian lines in a particularly diverse country, and the military will follow. And if anything, the last year’s protests showed us that the population is not only ready but hungry for that solution, one that overhauls the current moth-eaten system.

L'articolo What’s Next for Iraqi Forces After US Withdrawal? proviene da InsideOver.

Lebanon has been plunged into one crisis after another, beginning with mass protests and economic turmoil and recently with the explosion in Beirut that killed more than 220 and destroyed vast amounts of infrastructure. As a result, the entire cabinet of Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned just days after, making room for a new government to take its place. 

Mustapha Adib Named as New Lebanese PM

On Monday, President Michel Aoun named Mustapha Adib as the new Prime Minister. Adib becomes the third person to hold the office since January of this year. He was voted in by 90 of the 120 members of parliament, with backing from the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movement, as well as the Sunni Future Movement of former leader Saad Hariri. 

The new PM — required to be a Sunni under the Doha Agreement — has the monumental task of rebuilding Beirut’s infrastructure and gaining the trust of a frustrated populace, which has been protesting on and off for almost a year.

“There is no time for talk, promises and wishes. It is a time for action,” Adib said in his first speech. 

Lebanon’s Economy is in Freefall

Adib’s job becomes extraordinarily difficult considering the state of Lebanese economy, which is facing one of the worst turmoils in history. The country’s gross domestic product is expected to plunge by 12% in 2020 while public debt levels near 175% of the GDP. Adding to the troubles is the unemployment rate of around 25% while the budget deficit is approximately 15%, making the prospect of any new reconstruction and comeback even more daunting. 

Lebanon’s economic crisis has been brewing for a long time now, as just in March the country defaulted on its dollar-denominated bonds for the first time ever. Adib is expected to revive talks with the International Monetary Fund for a $10 billion facility after the previous round in early July failed. But given the long-term sovereign credit outlook — downgraded by Fitch to CCC, a non-investment grade — it’s going to be a tough sell.  

‘The IMF is Exploring All Possible Ways to Support the People of Lebanon’

After the August explosions, some hope for support emerged as France’s Emmanuel Macron rallied to Lebanon’s cause while IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said: “The IMF is exploring all possible ways to support the people of Lebanon. It is essential to overcome the impasse in the discussions on critical reforms and put in place a meaningful program to turn around the economy and build accountability and trust in the future of the country.”

Before any negotiations with the multilateral lender, Adib will meet with Macron, who played an instrumental role by pressuring the ruling elite to name a new candidate. The French President is trying to get more international financial support for Lebanon’s development and fiscal management. 

However, there are now questions whether the new leader can bring any meaningful change to the rotten system or is it merely a change of face. Adib had been serving as the Lebanese ambassador to Germany since 2013 and like his predecessor Hassan Diab, is an academic by qualification and has previously taught at a number of universities. Similarly, his political days go back to the time of billionaire PM Najeeb Mikati with whom he served as an advisor. 

Hence, his appointment is unlikely to be welcomed by the general public that has been protesting to completely overhaul the current political system and get rid of the corrupt ruling elite who have captured the government.

Adib, too, seems to be a member of that same exclusive club.

L'articolo Tough Road Ahead for New Lebanese PM proviene da InsideOver.

This year hasn’t really been a great year for anyone, but for Tehran it has been extraordinarily bad. Beginning with the assassination of top General Qasem Soleimani, the head of the powerful revolutionary guards, followed by an initial surge in coronavirus cases and then the second wave, the Islamic Republic is under pressure from all sides — geopolitical, economic, health — with an aggressive Washington trying to force it into submission. 

Iran’s Nightmare Scenario: Arab States Allying with Israel

It was in this context the latest agreement known as the Abraham Accord arrived, normalizing diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Unsurprisingly, it was brokered by the US. Of late, Abu Dhabi and other Gulf capitals have become increasingly inclined to partner up with the Jewish state as a means of containing Iran’s regional influence. 

The Abraham Accord was just the beginning. Reports began emerging in the media of other countries in the region soon normalizing relations with Israel. To lobby for that cause, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo embarked on his Middle East tour from Aug 23 to 27, beginning with Jerusalem where in a presser with Netanyahu, Iran was referenced for its “malicious influence”. 

“This is the alliance of the moderates against the radicals, against the – those who use violence and aggression to further their aims against those who believe that we can offer a better people – a better future for our people through cooperation,” the Israeli Prime Minister said of his latest partnership, while taking a clear dig at Iran. 

Pompeo’s Alliance-Building Efforts

In addition to meeting his Emirati counterpart, Pompeo also held discussions with leaders of Sudan, Bahrain and Oman to further rally his cause. Confronting Iran was at the crux of the talks, as the Sunni majority countries in the region feel insecure about Iran’s growing sphere of influence. At the same time, the Trump administration kept the pressure up on the Islamic Republic by trying to trigger snapback sanctions against Tehran, even though the US has already pulled out of the JCPOA. 

While Iran had kept calm as far as the reshaping of regional alliances was concerned, the threat of sanctions did rile it up. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif wrote a 29-page letter to the UN Secretary General, affirming his country’s position that the US has no right to trigger the mechanism given that it withdrew from the nuclear deal. 

“US justifications for its self-abrogated right to the “reapplication of the provisions of terminated resolutions” on Iran have no credibility or legitimacy, and need to be rejected by the Council,” the document read. 

The Current Situation

Washington’s obsession is in trying to corner Tehran could have serious consequences with respect to the country’s nuclear weapons program, as it has previously hinted at enriching uranium. But for now, the United Nations has rejected the US bid and Iran has also been fairly cooperative. In fact, just on August 26, it agreed to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to two sites suspected of carrying out illicit work in the past. 

For now, even the US efforts regarding fresh diplomatic alliances in the region seem to be unsuccessful as Bahrain emphasized its commitment to the Arab Peace of Initiative of 2002 and refused to recognize Israel until there is a solution for Palestinian statehood.

Sudan too excused itself from any such deal with Israel, saying the issue is beyond the mandate of the current transitional government. How permanent their stances are going to be is anyone’s guess since Washington wouldn’t want to throw away the momentum it has already gained.

Until then, Iran hangs on, dodging bullets shot its way while exercising as much restraint as possible.

L'articolo Iran in a Tough Spot as US Cranks Up Diplomatic Pressure proviene da InsideOver.

This has been a busy year politically for the Middle East, with quite a few “groundbreaking” agreements and plans unveiled if you are to believe the Trump administration. From the supposed “Deal of the Century” in January that virtually endorsed the Netanyahu government’s annexation ambitions on Palestinian territories to the recently signed pact that establishes diplomatic ties between Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem, history is apparently being made rather frequently.

Or maybe the standards have been set far too low.

The UAE-Israel Abraham Accord

The deal between the Jewish state and the oil-rich Gulf monarchy is the latest instance of an increasing acceptance of Israel among Arab countries. The Abraham Accord, as it is being called, will establish business, tourism and direct flights between the two nations. 

Trying to save face among Muslims and Arabs, the UAE branded this move as some sort of bargain it struck to stop the Israeli expansion plans. However, soon after Anwar Gargash, the UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, called it “a stoppage of the annexation, not a suspension.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu said he had only “delayed” enlarging Israel’s border, which is still “on the table”. However anyone frames it, there’s no secret the deal at the heart is about containing Tehran, a goal for which Abu Dhabi is willing to go anywhere, including cutting a deal with Israel and betraying the Palestinian cause. 

The Accord Had Been in the Works for a Long Time

Obviously no one is going to buy that narrative since the move had been a long time coming. The two sides had stepped up engagement over the last decade, including meetings between ambassadors and foreign ministers usually in the United States, secret cooperation to counter Iran and even an invitation to Israel to participate in the Dubai 2020 World Expo (now delayed to 2021).

The pressing question is what’s to come for the Palestinian people who have been denied most rights for far too long. With powerful Muslim states getting cozy with Israel turn by turn, without really making any concrete efforts for their brethren, it is indeed a blow but not a new one. After all, they are used to it. Egypt, after years of wars, gave up in 1978 while Jordan made peace in 1994. 

More Gulf Nations Set to Sign Deal with Israel?

Two other Gulf states might follow suit soon. In fact, just on Aug 17, Israeli foreign minister had a call with his Omani counterpart (who was however replaced just a day after in a cabinet reshuffle) regarding strengthening of bilateral ties. 

Saudi Arabia also broke the silence a day ago as the kingdom’s foreign minister ruled out a deal with Israel unless a Palestinian accord has been reached. Despite the kingdom’s own stance on the Jewish state softening over the years, the statement has some symbolic value, given the country hosts Islam’s two holiest sites. 

Meanwhile Turkey, which is increasingly positioning itself to become the leading, or even the sole, voice of the global Muslim community and its issues under Erdogan, threatened to severe ties with UAE. But more than showing solidarity with Palestine and a hardline stance, it represented sheer hypocrisy as Ankara has had strong diplomatic ties with Israel for much of its history. 

Iran, for its part, also registered a strong reaction as far as words are concerned. The question is whether it will have any real impact on the country’s foreign policy, the possibility of which is quite remote. Tehran doesn’t really have the strongest relationships in the region and thanks to the burden of sanctions, it’s not in the best position to cut ties with UAE, which is not only its second largest trading partner but also serves as a transition port to sell its goods abroad. 

The Palestinian Perspective

To Palestinians though, these deals represent little meaning or change in their plight. This was clear from Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas’s statement, who was reported as saying: “We aren’t worried about the nonsense that happens here and there and especially in recent days, when a trilateral agreement between the Emirates, Israel and America was announced.”  

One can maybe hope that things would at least slow down if the Trump administration — which gave a free pass to Israel to do whatever it wants — is gone. But expecting a drastic change would be living in a fool’s paradise. Just a simple look at Biden’s manifesto gives a telling picture as it mentions “settlement” only once while “occupation” is nowhere to be found. On the other hand, the text emphasizes the rejection of the Boycott Divestment Sanctions (BDS) movement, or sustaining “our unbreakable commitment to Israel’s security” among other things. However, Palestinians have long known that it doesn’t matter to their cause which party has its representative in the White House. 

For a long time now the international community tried to sell the two-state solution, even as it turned a blind eye to illegal Israeli settlements. Perhaps this latest development would deal a final blow to any optimist who thought both things can be simultaneously achieved and the world can finally approach the issue as it is: the relationship between the occupier and the occupied.  

L'articolo Understanding the UAE-Israel Deal and Pan-Islamic Politics proviene da InsideOver.

Barely four days after all sides in the Yemeni conflict welcomed the call for a ceasefire in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, the war seems to be escalating yet again and threatening to undo whatever little progress had been made.

Hostilities Flare Up Once Again

The tit-for-tat re-escalation started again on Saturday night when Houthis fired a number of rockets and drones towards Saudi Arabia, causing minor injuries to two Saudi citizens.

“Saudi Air Defense Forces intercepted 2 ballistic missiles launched by the Iranian-backed Houthi militia towards #Riyadh and #Jazan,” the Kingdom’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweeted on Sunday morning.

Reuters reported later the same day that a military spokesman for Houthis took responsibility for launching rockets and drones at “sensitive” sites in Riyadh and at economic and military sites in Jazan and Asir, near the Yemeni border.

First Major Houthi Attack in Almost One Year

This was the first major Houthi offensive against the Kingdom after the rocket attack at the oil field last September, post which things calmed down a little, giving a temporary relief to the war-torn country.

“I am gravely dismayed and disappointed by these actions at a time when the Yemeni public’s demands for peace are unanimous and louder than ever before. Yemen needs its leaders to focus every minute of their time on averting and mitigating the potentially disastrous consequences of a Covid-19 outbreak,” said UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths.

Saudi Arabia Hits Back

Much to Griffiths’ dismay, the fight was taken one further notch upwards on Monday with the Saudis retaliating through air strikes on Yemen’s capital of Sanaa, including sites in the presidential palace compound and a military school. As per Reuters, the coalition struck “legitimate military targets including Houthi ballistic batteries which threaten civilian lives.”

After the outbreak of the contagious coronavirus — which doesn’t discriminate along national, sectarian or ideological lines — United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres in a March 25 statement urged “those fighting in Yemen to immediately cease hostilities, focus on reaching a negotiated political settlement and do everything possible to counter a potential outbreak of Covid‑19.”

What if Yemen Gets Coronavirus?

So far, Yemen has not reported any cases of the coronavirus but that is likely because no tests have been done. Its outbreak could wreak further havoc for the country already facing one of the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.

As for the uptick in fighting, the head of the Houthi-government’s national negotiation delegation Mohammed Abdulsalam iterated that there was no option left for the military but to respond to continued Saudi aggression and thus “defend the dignity of the nation”.

This is part of a brewing conflict that resumed in the end of January, with hundreds getting killed across a series of attacks including on Yemeni defense minister in which he narrowly escaped death. Just in March alone, the fighting has seen major escalation resulting in the Houthis taking control of Al Jawf, which lies in the country’s north just next to the Saudi border.

Now the next frontier is Marib, the oil-rich province which remains the last stronghold of the Saudi-led coalition government. The Houthis had already started advancing towards the region by Mar 11 and an all-out war for its control will probably shape the future of the country and any prospect of peace.

L'articolo Yemen Conflict Intensifies Despite Covid-19 Fears proviene da InsideOver.

The drama of Israeli elections has lingered on for more than a year and over three rounds of polls but it appears it might finally be near resolution as the unity government between two rival groups looms closer. After bickering for weeks, the incumbent prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu a few days back claimed to have reached an agreement in principle with Benny Gantz, which the latter didn’t initially confirm.

The Basic Problem in Israel’s Politics

Neither coalition had managed to reach the 61-seat threshold in the Knesset to form a government, creating fears of yet another election ending in a stalemate. But in a surprising twist, Gantz got 74 votes on March 26 to be elected as the interim speaker of the parliament with the support of Bibi’s Likud. This resulted in Gantz’s own Blue and White splitting away on ideological grounds for not wanting to be part of any majority that has the incumbent prime minister on it.

Then this Sunday, Netanyahu and Gantz in a joint statement announced “reaching fundamental understandings through efforts to form a unity government,” while making it clear that some minor issues still need to be ironed out.

As per the agreement, the unity government would last three years with Bibi to serve as the prime minister until September 2021 before being replaced by Gantz. Meanwhile, the ministries will be shared equally between the two groups at 15 each, with finance and health going to Likud and security, justice, communications and foreign affairs to Blue and White.

Gantz’s Damage to His Own Coalition

But reaching a truce with the increasingly right wing Likud hasn’t done well to Gantz’s own centrist Blue and White. What was once cobbled together to pose a strong front against Netanyahu has now been reduced to two medium and one small parties, giving much power to the incumbent prime minister.

The fallout from joining forces with Bibi was almost immediate as Blue and White’s former allies Yesh Atid, Yisrael Beiteinu and Labor pulled out. Israel’s third largest electoral group, the Arab Joint List with 15 seats, had also recommended to the president to invite Gantz to form the government.

For the past two elections Gantz has taken a strong, hardliner stance against any deal that would keep Netanyahu as the prime minister. However, he justified this latest u-turn saying the country is in extraordinary times due to the threat posed by the coronavirus. “Israel is facing a growing number of infections and the number of victims is rising daily,” he told the Knesset on Thursday.

Unsustainable Deal

While the latest agreement between the two primary political groups has put talks of another election to rest for the time being, it remains to be seen how sustainable the deal is. First of all, Netanyahu is being indicted for corruption and has gotten only a temporary relief until May 24 as the country’s courts were frozen in the wake of the coronavirus.

The unity government could also have far-reaching consequences in the overall political landscape of the country as Blue and White — seen as the only viable frontier to Likud and its right wing allies — has succumbed to pressure. Israel’s Arab minority is already feeling disillusioned by the system. Despite the Arabic Joint List party emerging as the third largest group, they have had no say in the entire deal-making, with many feeling absolutely hopeless about the prospect of any secular party calling the shots.

L'articolo Unity Government in Israel at Last, but for How Long? proviene da InsideOver.

The scourge of the novel coronavirus is showing no signs of deceleration, and has put billions of people under lockdown, breaking the wheel of global economic activity. The virus has been particularly harsh towards Iran, infecting more than 44,000 people and killing close to 2,900, making Iran the seventh-most affected in terms of total cases and sixth in number of deaths. 

Iran’s Economic Suffering is Also Enormous

In addition to these tragic human costs, Iran has suffered a serious blow to its economy as it struggles to deal with the negative consequences of shutdowns. Already under the weight of the US sanctions which have strangled Tehran’s jugular vein – energy exports – the country’s problems are now being compounded by the coronavirus outbreak. 

Since becoming one of the epicenters of the coronavirus, most of Iran’s neighbors – Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan – shut their land borders, thus disrupting much of their bilateral trade ties with Iran. To make matters worse, an almost complete halt of religious tourism has further dented one of the core industries of the Islamic Republic. 

The Geopolitical Dimension

While the macroeconomic impact of the current situation will become clearer in a few months, it is likely to spill over into other areas, particularly the geopolitical sphere. Being a major player in the regional proxy wars, Iran for years has channeled vast sums of resources to protect its interests beyond borders. From supplying arms to favored groups in Yemen to overtly managing the government in Baghdad, Tehran has been one of the most active states in the Middle Eastern battleground.

However, all of that force projection requires financial muscle, something Iran barely has anymore

Its oil export volume was already dwindling as most of the key buyers were forced to redirect their imports due to the pressure of sanctions and now the Saudi output increase has brought down fuel prices to record lows, further tightening the primary source of government revenues. 

Tehran Shows No Signs of Backing Down Geopolitically

But so far, Tehran hasn’t shown any willingness to bend with Foreign Minister Javed Zarif going on a Twitter spat against the United States. He posted on Mar 26: “#Covid19 ravages the world, sparing no nation. Even the world’s largest economy needs others to help it fight the pandemic, yet refuses to halt its #EconomicTerrorism against Iran. Does the US want a ‘forever pandemic’? Moral imperative to stop observing the bully’s sanctions.”

Khamenei too played the same war of words during his Nowruz speech, calling the US the most malicious and hostile of his nation’s enemies. Beyond rhetoric too, recent developments in the region suggest Iran doesn’t plan to apply the brakes. In fact, just this Saturday, the Tehran-backed Houthis launched rockets into Riyadh and another city, which comes less than a month after them seizing control of Al Jawf and advancing to the oil-rich province Marib close to the Saudi Arabian border. 

The situation has been no different in Iraq either, where there has been an uptick in terms of attacks at the US bases. Anadolu Agency reported on Tuesday that two rockets were intercepted near the Ain Al-Assad base. This comes two weeks after strikes at the Taji military camp killed two Americans and one Briton, which Washington blamed on Kataib Hezbollah — a Tehran-backed group. It also coincides with the US scaling down presence in Iraq as just this month,  it pulled out of three bases. 

How Long Can Iran Continue On This Path?

The question then is, how long can the Islamic Republic go on like this? The health crisis is not slowing down, with thousands of new cases being reported daily while the global recession poses further threat to an already heavily-sanctioned economy. On the other hand, arch-rival Saudi Arabia has been largely successful throughout, with only 1,720 infections recorded and 16 deaths from coronavirus. Thanks to better connected markets, Saudi Arabia likely to sail through the storm more efficiently, tilting the regional balance of power in favor of Riyadh over Tehran.

However, Iran’s economic woes go way back and if anything, the country has learned to make up for its lack of resources, especially by leveraging sectarian sympathies from Shiite populations across the Middle East. Though it remains a test as to how effectively Iran can cash in on that pro-Tehran sentiment without sufficient funding and arms.

L'articolo Will Covid-19 Mellow Down Iran’s Foreign Policy? proviene da InsideOver.

Though hardly ever prosperous and stable, the last five years or so have been particularly harsh on Yemen where a civil war has ensued between the Saudi-supported government and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. 

The resulting violence has taken over 100,000 lives and displaced millions, largely attributable to ruthless airstrikes by Saudi Arabia, creating one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. Attempts at diplomacy have been scarce and half-hearted but the end of 2019 offered some reprieve to Yemenis following a scale-down in the war. 

However, only a few months after relative calm following the first Houthi (or possibly Iranian) airstrike that hit Saudi Arabia in its jugular vein — oil — and then the Riyadh agreement which tried to mend the differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia and it’s back to business as usual in Yemen: horrific war.

Conflict is Re-Intensifying in Yemen

Building up since late January, the conflict has been intensifying with each passing day with close to a hundred fighters from both sides killed in just the last two weeks. This death toll included an attack on Yemeni defence minister which took the lives of his six guards, which came just a day after battle near the port of Hodeidah that killed 18. 

Since the attack on Aramco’s oil facility at Abqaiq — which Houthis claimed responsibility for but the Kingdom blamed on Iran — Saudi Arabia had gone a little under the radar, toning down its aggression by a notch or two. But of late, things seem to have changed as the conflict in Yemen escalates and airstrikes resumed. 

US Support Encourages Riyadh

Much of Saudi Arabia’s aggression is thanks to the confidence boost Saudis received after the US increased its military presence both in the Kingdom and around the region after taking out Iranian General Qasem Solemani. And that certainly looked like the case too when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Saudi Arabia on Feb 21 and discussed the rise in conflict in Yemen with his hosts, including the king, crown prince and the deputy defense minister. 

In a show of strength and cooperation with Riyadh, Pompeo also touched down at Prince Sultan Airbase where some 2,500 American troops are stationed, signalling that Washington stands strong with its allies. The message was heard clearly in Sanaa and Tehran. 

Meanwhile, Ambassador Abizaid talked about the threat to Saudi territory from Houthi rockets, which he traced back to Iran. “We’ve just recently interdicted two dhows down there filled with Iranian-produced equipment that is being used by the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia.  So I think it’s really important for us to understand who is the aggressor in the region, and it’s no doubt it’s the Iranians,” he said on Feb. 20 in a press briefing. 

“…a lot of people don’t understand there’s been an awful lot of missile strikes that have been supplied by missiles, supplied by the IRGC Qods Force launched from Yemen, 400 strikes, as a matter of fact, on – about – on Saudi Arabia,” the ambassador continued.

And just like that, he put the onus of responsibility on Iran giving clean chit to the Saudis in Yemen’s theater of war. 

The Multi Polar Yemen Conflict

Adding another layer of complexity to the conflict is the internal divide between the coalition. Where Saudi Arabia has its weight behind the Hadi government, the UAE is supporting separatists in the south. And despite their common animosity with the Houthis, the two haven’t always been able to see eye to eye. 

The Riyadh Agreement, signed in November 2019, was a major step to bridge those differences but a missile attack in Marib on Jan. 18 that killed 118 men  has cast doubts on its sustainability. So far the two Arab states have done just enough to keep the coalition alive, intervening in time before things go out of control. However, the window of opportunity might be closing. Unless a more comprehensive pact, with a streamlined execution timeline is framed, Yemen could very well see a many-sided and intensified war with strings pulled by three regional capitals.

L'articolo Peace On Knife’s Edge as Yemen Conflict Re-Escalates proviene da InsideOver.

As the coronavirus spreads beyond China and has already claimed more than 2,700 lives and infected in excess of 78,000 people, worries are increasing about whether the outbreak has become a pandemic and how it can be prevented and treated.

Coronavirus: a Global Infection

Cases of coronavirus have been confirmed as far as the United States and Australia, involving over 82,000 people and more cases keep being identified with each passing day. In response, flights have been cancelled, airports equipped with screeners and cargo ships stranded, creating panic and economic upheaval. There are already numerous worrisome reports projecting extent of economic impact the virus is going to have on global growth as trade is slowing down, adding to the woes of the business community. 

Iran Has Been Hit Hard by Coronavirus

Iran — which confirmed its first two cases of the virus on Feb 18 – has taken center stage in this outbreak, reporting the third highest number of infected patients outside China, only after South Korea and Italy. In terms of the casualties, it ranks second globally with 27 deaths – which many believe to be understated, suggesting the highest mortality rate among majorly affected countries at some 11%. In comparison, China’s mortality from coronavirus is about 3.5%, Italy’s 2.6% and South Korea’s 0.74%. Even its deputy health minister wasn’t immune from the disease and as per latest reports, the vice president has tested positive too. 

This has not only raised questions over the effectiveness – or the lack thereof – of the Islamic Republic in dealing with endemic, but has also seriously shaken the country’s struggling economy. Already gripped by heavy US sanctions after US President Donald Trump’s revocation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Tehran has been in serious trouble lately as its oil exports have been cut down and businesses targeted. Consequently, the expected GDP growth rate has gone to negative 9.5% while annual inflation is estimated to be 20%, prompting citizens in November 2019 to stage demonstrations against the government after fuel prices were raised.

Iran’s Land Borders are Also Shut Down, Further Impacting Trade

All of Iran’s economic struggles have been made worse since coronavirus spread in the country. By Feb 24, most of its neighbors closed land borders, thus impacting the trade flows. This included Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkey: Iran’s second, fourth and fifth largest export destinations respectively, accounting for $11.3 billion of goods sold in the 10 months leading up to January of 2020.

Meanwhile, Iran’s largest trading partner – on which it has increasingly relied for oil exports since the imposition of sanctions – China, is itself grappling with the outbreak thus affecting cargoes to the country as well.

Similarly, the United Arab Emirates stopped all its flights – passenger and cargo – to and from Iran on Feb. 25 and then two days later, suspended passenger services with the Islamic Republic as well. The two countries trade some $15 billion of goods annually and the UAE is a major destination for rerouting Iranian products, which are often covered by international sanctions. 

Unsurprisingly, Tehran’s trade has already been hit badly. The extent of the damage will only be known once the data for ongoing month comes out. But the impact caused by coronavirus goes beyond exports and imports. Even the local supply chains have been disrupted as some restrictions have been applied on domestic movement of people inside Iran.

A Blow to Religious Tourism

Another area where the outbreak is already showing adverse effects is Iran’s religious tourism industry. Home to a number of holy sites, the Islamic Republic hosts as many as 8 million visitors a year of which a majority are Shiite pilgrims. 

The shutting of borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan has stopped devotees from the two countries with significant Shiite populations to enter Iran, dealing a major blow to the local economy especially in cities like Qom, Najaf and Mashhad which are dependent on religious tourism. 

Even the local tour industry operating on outbound travel isn’t safe as Saudi Arabia banned Iranian pilgrims while Russia has also put a halt on flights to and from the Islamic Republic.

Amplifying the troubles, the outbreak coincides with Iran’s blacklisting by the Financial Action Task Force which would discourage companies and banks to deal with the already sanctions-stricken country. The two factors combined brought rial to a year-low against the dollar at 158,000 on Feb 26. 

L'articolo Iran’s Already Struggling Economy is Being Crushed As Coronavirus Hits proviene da InsideOver.

The past year has been rather uncertain for Israel as the country has undergone two elections, both producing no final result. Maybe third time’s the charm, as incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu might finally have enough factors working in his favor to get across the finish line and fully beat his rival Benny Gantz. 

Netanyahu’s Ongoing Political Struggle

Faced with a major corruption scandal including charges of bribery and fraud, Netanyahu has found it difficult to woo enough voters to his camp to form a majority. But he might just have gotten a golden opportunity to swing the decision of the upcoming March 2 elections by riding the international political waves of nationalism and anti-Arab, anti-Muslim rhetoric. 

Already the longest-serving Prime Minister in Israel’s 72-year history, Netanyahu is currently serving his third term and he has been in power since 2009. During this period, he has steered the Jewish state further to the right, encouraging settlements in Palestinian territories and launching military offensives in Gaza that have killed hundreds of civilians. 

In the elections too, Netanyahu has gone with the same strategy. Where his rival and former military chief Benny Gantz has taken a centrist outlook, Bibi has tried to pander to the far right and secure that voting bloc in perpetuity. While the strategy failed to get his coalition the required 61 seats in Israel’s Knesset to form a majority, things may well be different this time around.

Will American Support Boost Bibi’s Popularity?

For starters, Netanyahu’s popularity has been boosted by getting Washington firmly into Israel’s camp, first by its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and by shifting the US embassy there. This was followed by the Trump administration breaking away from a 40-year status quo, saying it doesn’t view the Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal. 

The biggest problem for the Prime Minister, however, was when he flanked Trump while the US President announced his Middle East Peace Plan. A far cry from its namesake, the document basically gave the Jewish state unprecedented concessions, including the recognition of settlements as official territory while also making Israel the final authority on any Palestinian state. 

Outcast by its neighbors and criticized widely by the international community, Israel almost always turns to the United States for diplomatic support. However, during the Obama era, it was hard to come by as relations between Netanyahu and the former US President were quite strained at times. However, ever since Trump came into power, that equation has changed drastically and Washington has rallied behind the Jewish state rather unconditionally, giving Bibi something to boast about and rely on.

Netanyahu has also tactfully exploited anti-Arab sentiment in Israel, especially in the last elections when the Joint List – a coalition of four Muslim parties in Israel – came out as the third largest electoral group with 10.6% of the vote share. Their success had put them in the kingmaker position, which centrist rival Gantz was expected to rely on to plug the gap in his numbers. 

Netanyahu’s Skill at Stoking Anti-Arab Fears

Speaking on the possibility of Gantz forming a coalition with Joint List, Netanyahu said in a rally: “such a government is an existential threat to the State of Israel. If a minority government like this is formed, they will celebrate in Tehran, Ramallah and Gaza the way they celebrate after every terror attack. This would be a historic national terror attack on the State of Israel.” The strategy worked as Gantz didn’t seek Arab support since he couldn’t risk associating with perceived enemies of the Jewish state, thus leading to yet another election in less than a year. 

To further establish himself among the nationalist camp, the Prime Minister on Feb. 25 approved new Israeli settlements of 3,500 homes in East Jerusalem, the proposed capital of Palestine, thus dealing another major blow to the two-state solution. 

Even the international political currents are such that they put Netanyahu at an advantage. Just days earlier, Iran elected a new parliament in which conservatives and hardliners won 221 of the 290 seats, potentially giving Bibi another factor to stoke fears about.

Likud Party Passes Rivals in Polls

It is no surprise that after months, Netanyahu’s Likud was finally able to surpass Gantz’s Kahol Lavan in the latest polls. However, that’s not enough since the former is expected to get 57 seats, still leaving a shortfall of 4. Will closeness with the US or the threat of Iran give Bibi another term in the office? We’ll find out on March 2.

L'articolo Is Third Time A Charm for Netanyahu? proviene da InsideOver.