The United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s international port operator DP World signed an accord on December 23 to develop a new deep-water port in Senegal. The investment by the government-owned firm is seen as the latest bid by the Gulf state to counter arch-rival Turkey’s rising influence in the West African nation.

Details of the New Deep-Water Port Agreement

The leading company said it will invest $837 billion in the first phase to build the port in Ndayane, Senegal, which is located about two hours’ drive southeast of the capital of Dakar. This is the single largest private sector investment in the history of Senegal. This investment will be followed by another $290 million.

The first phase of the project will include a new container terminal with 840 meters of quay and a new 5 km marine channel designed to handle up to 366-meter vessels and capable of accommodating the largest container vessels in the world. Phase 2 will include the creation of 410 meters of additional container quay and a further dredging of the marine channel to handle even larger 400-meter vessels.

DP World said the new port “will further reinforce Dakar’s role as a major logistics hub and gateway to West and North West Africa”. The Emirati firm also plans to develop a special economic zone next to the Ndayane port to further strengthen the attractiveness of Senegal to foreign investors.

Why is the UAE Investing in Senegal?

The mega investment in Senegal was the latest move by the UAE to seek a strategic foothold in Africa. The Gulf state has used its global port operator to win concessions to develop commercial ports and logistics hubs at several sites across the continent, including Somaliland, Algeria, Mozambique and Djibouti.

Abu Dhabi has also built a series of military bases in the Horn of Africa that allow it to project power far beyond its borders, particularly into the Red Sea and the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Analysts view the latest Emirati move to pour investments into Senegal as part of its effort to counter Turkey’s rising role in Senegal and across the African continent. Turkey has been seeking to bolster its relations with Senegal in recent years within Ankara’s efforts to gain economic, political and cultural clout in Africa.

Turkey Has Been Busy Boosting Economic Relations with Senegal

In January 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Dakar for talks with Senegalese officials to enhance bilateral relations. A business forum was held during the visit.

Trade volume between Turkey and Senegal has doubled sixteen-fold in the last decade, with leading Turkish firms undertaking significant infrastructure projects, including an international airport and a 50,000‑seat stadium. As of 2020, there were 29 projects worth $775-million that have been contracted to Turkish firms in the country.

Turkey’s education body, Maarif Foundation, has also opened a series of schools in Senegal as part of its charm campaign to enhance Ankara’s cultural influence in the West African nation. As part of this, the Turkish Development and Cooperation Agency (TIKA) also opened its first office in Western Africa in Dakar in April 2007. Ankara has also been offering scholarships to Senegalese students to study in Turkey since 1992.

Spotlight: UAE vs. Turkey

The UAE and Turkey are regional rivals and are engaged in several proxy conflicts across the Middle East region, including Libya, Syria, Yemen and the eastern Mediterranean.

In Libya, Turkey backs the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), while the UAE supports eastern commander Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army is seeking to oust the GNA.

In Syria, the UAE backs the normalization of relations with the regime of Bashar al-Assad, whose forces have been fighting opposition forces in a deadly civil war since 2011. Ankara, meanwhile, supports opposition forces fighting to remove Assad from power. In Yemen, the UAE is part of a Saudi-led coalition that has launched a massive air campaign against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, which overran much of northern Yemen — including the capital Sanaa — in 2014.

In the eastern Mediterranean, the UAE has joined Greece, Cyprus, France and Egypt is opposing Turkish attempts to drill for energy resources in disputed waters in the region. Turkey sees the alliance as an attempt to exclude it from the gas equation in the Mediterranean.

While Turkey claims that the UAE was sowing chaos in the Middle East and Africa, Abu Dhabi accuses Ankara of pursuing neo-Ottoman imperial policies in the region.

The main cause of animosity between the two rivals is related to support for political Islam. Whereas Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK) is ideologically related to the Islamist movement of the Muslim Brotherhood, the UAE and its allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt see the group as an extremist and terrorist threat, which Abu Dhabi has been determined to crush across the greater Arab region since 2011.

L'articolo Senegal Becomes New Focus of UAE-Turkey Rivalry in Africa proviene da InsideOver.

In a new blow to Turkey’s power in Libya, the interior minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) Fathi Bashagha has imposed a travel ban on Libyan Central Bank Governor Sadik Al-Kabir.

Why Did the GNA Crack Down on the Central Bank Governor?

In a strongly-worded statement, the GNA Interior Ministry said all Libyan officials will be subject to the new travel restrictions without mentioning al-Kabir by name. However the ban came shortly after the bank governor filed a complaint with the Attorney-General’s office about having been prevented from travelling outside the country, making the linkage clear.

The rift between the two allies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan surfaced against the backdrop of accusations that al-Kabir of squandering billions of dollars.

The Government Believes al-Kabir and his Associates are Corrupt

Last week, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said in a statement that it would not transfer money crude oil sales to the central bank until it shows a “clear transparency” about how it spends money.

The NOC cited that the central bank reported $1.77 billion in oil revenues in the first 10 months of the year, although the corporation’s estimates showed that it had deposited more than twice that amount of revenues — $3.7 billion — at the central bank during this period.

NOC President Mustafa Sanalla suggested that some officials in Tripoli were involved in wasting millions of dollars, accusing al-Kabir of benefitting from exchanging dollar at different rates. Sanalla explained that the bank governor exchanged the dollar for 1.40 Libyan dinars for some people, before reselling it at prices ranging between 6 and 10 dinars.

Interior Minister: ‘Corruption is a Scourge’

In a tweet, Bashagha vowed to take action against officials involved in corruption and money-laundering. “Corruption is a scourge that threatens every country’s present & future. We are dedicated in MoI to fight against corruption, trace money-laundering offences & determined to prosecute all who are involved in these crimes no matter who was it,” he tweeted.

The rift between Bashagha and al-Kabir comes as a bad news for Turkey, the only foreign backer of the Tripoli-based government. The two men are strong supporters of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in favor of the GNA against the Libyan National Army of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar.

Signs of a split between Turkey and Bashagha have emerged in recent weeks after the Libyan interior minister visited Ankara’s main rival Egypt and France, a move that angered the Erdogan administration.

Last month, Bashagha held talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo, in a visit seen as an attempt by Tripoli to reassure Egypt about the GNA amid UN-sponsored talks for reaching a peace deal between Libya’s warring rivals.

Intervention Threat

In June, Egypt threatened to militarily intervene in Libya if Turkey-backed Libyan forces continued to advance on the oil-rich city of Sirte. The threat has helped to pacify the situation on the ground.

After his talks in Egypt, Bashagha travelled to France where he held talks on mutual security cooperation between Tripoli and Paris. The Libyan minister described his talks in Paris as “fruitful”.

Watching its close ally courting its regional rivals in Libya, Erdogan, who invested billions of dollars to gain a foothold in the oil-rich country, voiced resentment at Bashagha’s moves.

According to sources cited by the London-based Al-Quds Al-Araby newspaper, Erdogan said during a meeting with Libyan officials that Bashagha’s talks in Egypt and France served efforts by both Cairo and Paris to exclude Turkey from any deal in Libya. Both Egypt and France, along with the UAE, are major backers of General Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in eastern Libya.

Bashagha’s rapprochement with Egypt and France is seen as part of his bid to replace Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj as leader of the GNA. Al-Sarraj has announced his intention to resign by October, before he rescinded his decision under Turkish pressure.

The Importance of Libya for Turkey

Turkey has been counting on Libya to give a much-needed boost to its ailing economy and ease the country’s growing economic woes. The Turkish government has been battling with double-digit inflation, high unemployment and weak Turkish lira, which fell to its lowest level against the dollar during the coronavirus pandemic.

Turkey has sought the help of its foreign allies, including Libya and Qatar, to boost its fast-depleting foreign reserves. According to the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television channel, al-Kabir, the central bank governor, has deposited $8 billion in the Central Bank of Turkey for about four years without interest to help stabilize the Turkish lira.

The Qatari government has signed last month investment deals worth billions of dollars, including buying a big chunk of shares in the Borsa Istanbul stock exchange, in a move aimed to boost the Turkish economy.

Turkey Wants a Key Stake in Libya’s Reconstruction

Turkey is also looking for taking a big share of Libya’s reconstruction operations in any future deal between the country’s warring rivals. Murtaza Karanfil, the chairman of the Turkey-Libya Council of Foreign Economic Relations (DEIK), said in May that Turkish investors eye $120 billion investments in Libya.

Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Domnez also told the Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency that Ankara — which is looking to lower its energy imports — is evaluating opportunities to cooperate with Libya on oil and natural gas exploration. According to Donmez, Turkey’s energy imports cost $40 billion annually, which is inflating its current account deficit.

Therefore, news of a rift between its main allies in Libya comes as a deadly blow to Erdogan’s efforts to rejuvenate the Turkish economy. It also plays into the hands of Ankara’s rivals and their hopes of ending Turkish influence in the North African nation.

L'articolo Travel Ban on Governor of Libya’s Central Bank Deals New Blow to Turkey proviene da InsideOver.

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has chosen Algerian Yazid Mubarak as a new group leader. According to the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadist groups, Mubarak, also known as Abu Obaida Yusuf al-Annabi, has replaced Abdelmalek Droukdel, who was killed by French forces in northern Mali in June 2020 after a seven year manhunt in Africa’s Sahel region.

Al-Annabi’s Core Role in AQIM Propaganda and Operations

Al-Annabi, the leader of AQIM’s Council of Notables, which is the group’s central decision-making body, was widely expected to be appointed as Droukdel’s successor. He has regularly appeared in AQIM’s propaganda videos that are produced through the group’s own media wing, Al-Andalus Media Productions.

SITE director Rita Katz said via Twitter that al-Annabi’s appointment as the new leader of AQIM was not surprising, given that he has been featured by the group in its propaganda over the past few years and has been involved in its core activities in facilitation, finances and operation planning.

Within AQIM, al-Annabi was often considered second-in-command after Droukdel. Several reports suggested a level of rivalry between the two men over the management of AQIM as Droukdel sought to marginalize al-Annabi and the Council of Notables.

According to the Counter Extremism Project, al-Annabi demonstrated an attempt to seize power from Droukdel when he released a recruitment video in March 2010 in which he called on Muslim youth in the Sahara and the Sahel to join the terrorist group.

What is AQIM?

AQIM finds its roots in the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), an Islamist movement that fought the Algerian government and army in the country’s civil war in the early 1990s. GIA leader Hassan Hattab split from the GIA over ideological differences, and he later founded the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) in 1998.

In 2003, Hattab was ousted by Nabil Sahraoui over his support for reconciliation with the Algerian government. In the same year, Sahraoui pledged allegiance to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda organization and Taliban leader Mullah Omar. In 2004, Sahraoui was killed in a shootout with Algerian army forces and was succeeded by Droukdel.

Under Droukdel, GSPC merged with al-Qaeda in September 2006 and rebranded itself as AQIM in the months following. The group also expanded beyond Algeria and reoriented itself as a regional threat, particularly in the Sahel, carrying out attacks in Mali, Mauritania, Libya, Tunisia, Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast.

AQIM’s Main Funding Sources: Kidnapping and Blackmail

AQIM’s main source of funding comes through kidnapping and extortion. According to the State Department’s 2013 Country Reports on Terrorism, in addition to kidnapping for ransom, the group also engages in criminal activities to finance its operations.

Specifically, AQIM reportedly raises funds though “protection rackets, robbery, people and arms trafficking, money laundering and smuggling and increasingly, the facilitation of drug trafficking from South America into Europe”.

AQIM vs. France

AQIM has been at war with the French government in Mali since 2013 after France launched a military operation in the west African country at the request of the government to oust Islamist groups that made gains north of the country. In response to the French military intervention, al-Annabi famously called for carrying out attacks against French interests throughout the world.

Al-Annabi also released an audio message in January 2016 in which he called on the Libyans to join the fight against the eastern Libyan army and the French forces in the coastal city of Benghazi.

France is a major backer of strongman Khalifa Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army, which is fighting the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord.

Given to his support to terrorist activities, the United States designated al-Annabi as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. The UN Security Council also listed al-Annabi as an individual associated with “participating in the financing, planning, facilitating, preparing, or perpetrating of acts or activities” by AQIM.

In an interview with France 24 in early 2019, al-Annabi vowed to continue AQIM attacks against the French military presence in the Sahel region, a vow that is expected to be materialized under his leadership, given that the terrorist group still retains a significant presence, particularly in Mali, and maintains an ability to carry out lethal attacks.

L'articolo Al-Qaeda in North Africa Names New Leader: What’s Next? proviene da InsideOver.

Since Algeria’s independence from France in 1962, the North African country has pursued a policy of non-interference, refraining from sending troops to missions abroad. But this policy is now about to change after Algerian voters approved a revised constitution that allows the military to participate in missions outside the country’s borders.

Referendum Gives Green Light to Algerian Troop Deployment Abroad

Some 23.7% of Algeria’s eligible voters cast ballot in this weekend’s referendum on the revised constitution, a historic low for a major vote. Around 3.3 million voters supported the changes, while 1.6 million voted against them.

The constitutional changes include presidential term limits, new powers for the parliament and judiciary and a clause to allow the army to intervene outside Algeria’s borders.

A draft of the revised constitution released by the Algerian Presidency in May showed an amendment of Article 29 of the current constitution, which prohibits the army from engaging in any conflict outside the country’s borders. “Algeria refrains from resorting to war because of its violation of the legitimate sovereignty and freedom of other peoples, and devotes its efforts to settling international disputes by peaceful means,” the article reads.

Algeria ‘Can Participate in Peacekeeping Operations Abroad’

This article, however, was revised in the approved charter to state that “Algeria within the framework of the United Nations, the African Union, and the Arab League, and in full compliance with its principles and objectives, can participate in peacekeeping operations abroad.”

Article 95 was also amended to grant the president the power to send army units abroad after a two-thirds majority vote of parliament. “The President of the Republic decides to send units of the army abroad, after approval by parliament, by a two-thirds majority of its members.”

Algeria’s Last Foreign Deployment was in 1973 Against Israel

The last time Algeria dispatched its military forces outside the country’s border was in 1973 when it sent army units to Egypt in its military conflict with Israel.

Constitutional amendments in 1976, however, prevented any Algerian military involvement in overseas operations and committed to a “purely defensive doctrine.”

The new constitutional changes represent a major shift in Algeria’s policy, and will help the country reposition itself as a powerbroker and stabilizer in a tumultuous region, amid raging conflicts near its borders such as the war in Libya and the ongoing fight against terrorism in the Sahel and Sahara.

How Will the Constitutional Changes Change Algerian Military Policy?

Once the changes take into effect, Algeria’s policy on military intervention would serve as a deterrent and would discourage foreign meddling in its direct neighborhood.

Algeria’s non-interference policy was seen as a reason that encouraged the NATO to stage a massive air campaign in Libya to depose strongman Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, which eventually led to the removal of Gaddafi’s regime and sent the country into a raging civil war.

Despite repeated demands for the North African country to play a role in Libya to help restore security to the oil-rich nation, Algeria refrained from intervening, citing its non-interference dogma.

This Algerian position has encouraged foreign players such as Turkey to embark on military adventurism in Libya, sending troops to the conflict-ridden country to support the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) against eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and France.

The Algerian non-interference doctrine has caused the situation in Libya to escalate to the point of a military confrontation, when Egypt, another Libya’s next-door neighbor, threatened to militarily intervene in Libya to stop the Turkish military advances in the oil-rich country.

Now, the constitutional changes would give Algeria a tactical advantage to play a prominent role in its backyard and make the country to become more proactive if another conflict erupts in a neighboring state. Among the countries bordering Algeria are Mali, Niger and Mauritania, all considered to be fragile states, likely to erupt in conflict.

With Algeria’s long policy of non-interference is now lifted, its adversaries may now carefully weigh their options when it comes to intervention or interference either in its direct neighborhood, or whenever its allies are under threat.

L'articolo What’s Next for Algeria’s Military? proviene da InsideOver.

Declassified e-mails from former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have exposed a suspicious relationship between the Obama administration and the Muslim Brotherhood. This revelation has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, where many have accused Washington of instigating the Arab Spring revolts that swept several countries in the region in 2011.

Clinton’s Emails Reveal Meddling and Bribes in Middle Eastern Politics

The declassification of Clinton’s emails was ordered by US President Donald Trump as part of federal investigations into her use of a private server for government emails.

In one of the e-mails, Clinton requested the Gulf state of Qatar to finance the Arab Spring revolts through an account dedicated to the Clinton Foundation. In 2016, the foundation confirmed that it had accepted a $1 million gift from Qatar in 2011 while Clinton was still secretary of state without informing the State Department.

Another e-mail showed that Qatar helped the Muslim Brotherhood to establish a media channel with investments amounting to $100 million after the Islamist group complained that its media organizations were weak and unable to compete with other media outlets.

E-mails: Clinton Apparently Worked with Al Jazeera to Topple Egyptian Leader Mubarak

Other e-mails revealed that the former US chief diplomat had coordinated with the Qatar-funded Al Jazeera channel regarding Washington’s hardline position on former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak during the 2011 protests.

Mubarak was swept from power after mass street protests against his 30-year rule. The Obama administration expressed support to the protests against the Mubarak regime.

“My dear Judith: I congratulate President Obama for his principled stance on Egypt. I hope that he will continue in this direction in these critical days ahead. We renew once again our interest in conducting an appropriate interview with him. Frankly, there is no alternative. Sincerely,” read an e-mail dated January 29, 2011 sent by Al Jazeera to US under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public affairs Judith McHale. This e-mail was sent on the same day Obama sent a message of support to the Egyptian demonstrators against Mubarak’s regime.

The Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

One year after Mubarak’s overthrow, the Muslim Brotherhood came to power in Egypt, the Arab world’s most populous state. The Islamist group was strongly supported by Qatar, a wealthy Gulf state, which channeled billions of dollars to cement the group’s rule in Egypt. The Brotherhood, however, has irked thousands in Egypt and triggered mass protests against its rule, forcing the military to remove Mohamed Morsi, a Brotherhood leader, from power in 2012.

One of the declassified e-mails showed that Clinton had visited Al Jazeera channel in May 2010 and met with its director back then, Waddah Khanfar. Clinton also met with members of the channel’s board of directors, where they agreed to arrange a visit for a delegation from the TV network to Washington, which happened in mid-May 2010. These discussions were also crowned with a meeting with the former Prime Minister of Qatar, Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani.

The Importance of Qatar

Egypt, along with its Gulf allies Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, accuse Qatar of supporting terrorist groups and instigating chaos in the region. In 2017, the four countries severed diplomatic relations with Doha and imposed an economic blockade on the Gulf state.

Qatar has been a safe haven for hundreds of Brotherhood members, who have fled a crackdown launched by the Egyptian authorities to quell violence that erupted after the removal of the Muslim Brotherhood group from power. The Gulf state’s mouthpiece Al Jazeera is also blocked in most Arab countries, which accuse Qatar of using the TV channel to instigate violence and chaos in the region.

Following the Arab Spring revolts, several Arab countries descended into violence such as Syria, Libya and Yemen, amid severe – and ongoing – humanitarian crises in these countries. Now Clinton’s declassified e-mails show that Washington had a hand to some extent in the turmoil that ravaged the region and caused one of the worst humanitarian crises in its history.

L'articolo Hillary Clinton’s Finally-Released E-mails Rattle the Middle East proviene da InsideOver.

News of Turkey’s plans to conduct comprehensive tests of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system has added to the country’s economic pains and is helping send the Turkish currency to a record low against the US dollar.

Washington Warns Turkey Against Activating the S-400s

According to Bloomberg, Turkey will test the advanced missile system next week at a site in Sinop province on the Black Sea coast. The news immediately drew fire from Washington, which warned Turkey against testing the Russian missiles.

Washington and its allies are worried that the S-400 system will enable Russia to gather intelligence about NATO’s air defense capabilities, specifically the US-made stealthy F-35 fighter jet.

The S-400s, known in Moscow as the “F-35 killer,” are considered the most modern long and medium-range surface-to-air missile system. The missiles can engage targets at a range of up to 400 kilometres, up to six times the speed of light, at heights of up to 30 kilometres. The S-400s can also launch 40N6 missiles (long-range, hypersonic, surface-to-air missiles) to engage low maneuverable aerodynamic targets.

Turkey’s Decision to Buy the S-400 Missile System from Russia

The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved to buy the Russian missile system after the US hesitated to provide Turkey with the Patriot air defense system. As the first equipment of the Russian system arrived in Turkey last year, the Trump administration kicked Ankara out of its F-35 program, in which Turkey was a manufacturer and buyer.

The US also threatened to impose economic sanctions on Turkey if it deployed and activated the Russian-made S-400s, but has not yet imposed these measures.

“We continue to object strenuously to Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system, and are deeply concerned with reports that Turkey is continuing its efforts to bring the S-400 into operation,” a spokesman for the State department said. “We continue to stress at the highest levels that the S-400 transaction remains a major obstacle in the bilateral relationship and at NATO, as well as a risk for potential CAATSA sanctions.”

Ankara reportedly tested the S-400’s communications systems by scrambling the US-made F-16s last year, in a move seen by Washington and its allies as hostile to the NATO members.

The Turkish Lira Takes a Nosedive

As tension mounted over the planned test of the S-400 system, the Turkish lira plunged into a historic low on Thursday, registering 7.9 lira against US dollar. The drop was the latest in more than two years of continuing depreciation of the Turkish currency amid military tensions between Turkey and its neighbors.

In 2018, Turkey’s relations with Washington further nosedived over the detention of Pastor Andrew Brunson on terrorism charges, with the Trump administration imposing devastating economic sanctions on Ankara. These sanctions have caused the lira to plunge and forced Turkey’s economy into recession.

Turkey has been considered among the riskiest emerging markets in recent years. The Turkish economy is categorized as one of the fragile five, along with India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia, mainly due to the country’s large current-account deficits.

Ankara’s Growing Foreign Trade Deficit and Rising Unemployment

According to the Turkish Statistics Institute, Turkey’s foreign trade deficit leapt 168.2% year-on-year in August to $6.278 billion under the general trade system. Exports fell 5.7% and imports jumped 20.4% compared with August 2019. Turkey’s annual consumer price inflation rate registered 11.75% last month and the unemployment rate climbed to 13.4% in the three months to July.

Turkey has long survived by attracting strong capital inflows, prompting strong credit expansion which in turn encourages economic growth. But this virtuous cycle turns vicious in bad times, dragging the lira to the brink.

Erdogan’s political and military adventures have also contributed to the country’s economic woes. On the political scene, Turkey has had at least one election every year except 2016. There were local elections in 2014, two general elections in 2015, a referendum on the government system in 2017, general and parliamentary elections in 2018, and local elections in 2019. This has put continuous pressure on the authorities to spend money and keep stimulating the economy with interest rates low enough to encourage more borrowing.

Turkey’s Numerous Military Engagements

On the military side, Turkey is involved in several conflicts in its neighborhoods. The Turkish army is conducting military operations in neighboring Syria, Iraq as well as Libya, where Ankara is supporting the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord. Turkey is also engaged in a heated standoff with NATO members Greece and France over gas exploration rights in the eastern Mediterranean. Ankara also supports Azerbaijan in its military conflict with Armenia over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Last month, Turkey’s central bank defied pressure by Erdogan to keep the interest rate low, raising the rate from 8.25% to 10.25% in an attempt to strengthen the lira against the US currency.

But as the central bank is facing mounting pressures from Erdogan not to raise the interest rate in order to help curb inflation and amid the ongoing Turkish military disputes with neighbors, the Turkish currency is expected to bleed more in the coming weeks.

L'articolo Will the S-400 Missile System Be the ‘Death Knell’ for Turkey’s Economy? proviene da InsideOver.

US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper made his first African tour this week for talks with officials in Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco. The main aim of the tour was to discuss how to limit the growing Russian influence in North Africa and the Mediterranean.

Tunisia-USA Defense Agreement

In Tunisia, the Pentagon chief signed a 10-year security cooperation pact with Tunisian Defense Minister Ibrahim Bartagi. The agreement envisages cooperation in fields such as freedom of navigation, sharing intelligence and disaster response operations, according to the Pentagon.

The American concerns over the increasing role of Russia, and also China, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were evident in Esper’s statements during his visit to Tunisia.

“Today, our strategic competitors China and Russia continue to intimidate and coerce their neighbors while expanding their authoritarian influence worldwide, including on this continent,” he said during a ceremony in Carthage.

“And, together, we continue to counter the malign, coercive, and predatory behavior of Beijing and Moscow, meant to undermine African institutions, erode national sovereignty, create instability, and exploit resources throughout the region,” he added.

The defense secretary also signed a similar 10-year security agreement with Morocco that charts military cooperation between the two countries through 2030.

Russia’s Reach Grows in North Africa

Esper’s tour came amid Russian moves to bolster its foothold in neighboring Libya, where Moscow backs the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar. Mercenaries from the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group are also fighting alongside Haftar’s forces against the Turkey-backed Government of National Accord (GNA).

The Russian involvement in Libya is part of a regional strategy by President Vladimir Putin after the 2011 Arab Spring revolution to return to regions where Moscow used to be a key player.

Russia perceived the Arab Spring revolutions as part of a US-sponsored plan to carry out regime changes in the Middle East and North Africa, causing Moscow to lose its influence in the region.

As part of the new Russian strategy in the region, Moscow provided support to the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria against Turkey-backed opposition groups. The Russian military support has helped tip the tide of the war in Assad’s favor and gained Moscow a foothold in the pivotal Arab country.

Washington’s Fear of Russia’s Future on the Libyan Coast

Russia now has access to a naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean coast in Syria. This base can accommodate 11 warships and perform operational capabilities throughout the Mediterranean. Moscow also operates the Khmeimim airbase in the Syrian city of Latakia.

Russia has also involved itself in Libya following a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and subsequent death of ruler Muammar Gaddafi. Washington fears that if Russia managed to earn military bases on Libya’s coast, it would be able to threaten southern Europe and reduce US ability to maneuver militarily.

Russia has also managed to forge a strong relationship with the new regime in Egypt, where it signed a $25-billion agreement to build the country’s first nuclear power plant. Moscow has also maintained a strong close relations with Algeria, which has relied on the Russian arms sales for decades.

Washington’s allies Tunisia and Morocco have also edged closer to Russia in recent years. This increasing Russian influence was quite visible in Tunisia’s tourism industry, which is vital to the North African country’s economy.

Scrambled to halt the Russian advances, the Trump administration moved to dispatch Esper to North Africa in an attempt to convince officials in the region to join the US efforts to limit the Russian influence in MENA region.

Tunisia and Morocco: Major Non-NATO Allies

Washington sees both Tunisia and Morocco as major non-NATO allies, who can play a role in preventing Russian penetration into Africa, given their strategic location.

The Pentagon chief’s visit to Algeria was also an attempt by Washington to convince the country’s new leadership to play a more active role in combating militant groups in neighboring Libya and consequently helping diminish the Russian role in the country.

His visit came weeks before Algerian voters will cast ballot in a constitutional referendum that, if approved, would allow the country to send troops outside its border for peacekeeping missions.

In any case, Russia appears to be determined to regain its status as a key players in the MENA region, making use of the American retreat that began under the Barack Obama administration and continues under the Trump administration.

L'articolo US Looks to Draw North Africa Away From Russian Orbit proviene da InsideOver.

Military and police teams from Libya’s warring rivals held UN-brokered security talks in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Hurghada this week. The talks came amid international pressure on the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar and their regional backers to avert an attack on the oil-rich city of Sirte.

What Did the Two Sides Agree On?

The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) said a host of recommendations have been reached during the discussions to be presented to UN-brokered military talks in Geneva next week. This includes the release of all prisoners captured during military operations before the end of October and a halt of all hate speech campaigns.

The two sides also agreed to expedite the re-opening of air traffic and land transportation lines across all Libyan cities to ensure freedom of movement for all citizens. The talks also tackled the tasks and responsibilities of the Petroleum Facilities Guards (PFG) in order to ensure uninterrupted oil production. UNSMIL said the two Libyan sides have demonstrated “a positive and proactive attitude aimed at de-escalation of the situation in central Libya.”

Efforts to Counteract Turkey’s Increased Intervention in Libya

The Hurghada talks were part of international efforts to reduce Turkey’s increasing military intervention in the Libyan conflict, which has irked several regional players, including Libya’s next-door neighbor Egypt.

“The Libyans reject Turkey’s blatant interference in the Libyan affairs and we are looking for solutions to unify the Libyan military establishment,” Major-General Khaled Mahjoub, the head of LNA mobilization department, said. “There is an agreement to disarm the militias and maintain the weapons in the hands of the Libyan army only,” he said.

The Pentagon estimates that Turkey has sent at least 5,000 Syrian mercenaries to Libya to fight on the side of the GNA. However, according to Mahjoub, Turkey-backed foreign mercenaries have already begun to leave Libya. “Around 3,000 mercenaries have left the country recently,” he said.

Libya’s Civil War

Libya plunged into civil war in 2011 after a NATO-backed uprising led to the ouster and subsequent killing of strongman Muammar Gaddafi, with two rival administrations emerging in Tripoli and the eastern city of Tobruk.

The situation escalated last year when Turkey signed controversial maritime and security agreements with the GNA, in response to a military offensive launched by Haftar on the capital Tripoli. The Turkish military support to the GNA helped it tip the balance of war in its favor, forcing Haftar’s LNA to retreat to Sirte.

The Turkish military intervention, however, has prompted Egypt to threaten to militarily intervene in the Libyan conflict. The Egyptian threat has forced the Turkey-backed GNA forces to halt their advance towards Sirte amid a military build-up on the frontlines.

As a result of the threat, intensive diplomatic efforts began to intensify in an attempt to avert an escalation of the military situation on the ground and push the warring rivals to reach a political settlement to their conflict. These efforts resulted in mutual ceasefire announcements by GNA Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and Speaker of the Tobruk-based Parliament Aguila Saleh.

The Bouznika Talks

As the situation on the ground remained precarious, delegations from the two rival administrations held UN-brokered talks in the Moroccan city of Bouznika to explore ways of de-escalating the situation and reaching a roadmap for elections. The two rivals plan to start a second round of the talks this week.

In a move that helped to ease tension, Haftar announced on Sept. 18 the resumption of oil production and exports on condition that the revenues are fairly distributed among the three Libyan regions and not used with the aim of funding militias or in operations marred by corruption.

An agreement was also concluded with the GNA to form a committee tasked with overseeing the distribution of oil revenues and their proper use until the end of the current year, as well as to unify the exchange rate, open lines of credits in banks and carry out bank clearing operations away from any kind of discrimination.

Egypt’s Perspective

The Egyptian government, which backs Haftar, also invited the strongman and his ally Saleh to Cairo in a move aimed to build on efforts to reach a political settlement to the conflict in Libya. “Egypt seeks to avoid an escalation of the military situation and grant all Libyan parties the opportunity to reach a Libyan-Libyan peaceful solution,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said.

In June, Egypt proposed an initiative to solve the crisis in Libya following the GNA military gains on the ground. This initiative called for a ceasefire, respect of an arms embargo on Libya and working towards a political settlement in the war-torn country. This initiative, however, was quickly rejected with the GNA and its backer Turkey.

With international involvement, the situation in Libya has stopped from escalating for now. But the question now remains about how far the foreign backers, particularly Turkey, are willing to help deescalate the situation and reach a permanent settlement to the conflict in the oil-rich country.

L'articolo Will Egypt-Hosted Military Talks Deescalate Libyan Conflict? proviene da InsideOver.

Rivalry between India and China has always been marred by tension and border disputes, which culminated historically in three military conflicts between the two Asian heavyweights.

Rising Tension Between Nuclear-Armed Neighbors

While New Delhi is growing wary about Beijing’s strong relations with India’s arch foe Pakistan, China looks with suspicion at Indian military and economic activities in the disputed South China Sea.

Tension between the nuclear-armed neighbors escalated in deadly clashes along their lengthy frontier earlier this year, with the two countries trading accusations for who was to blame for the violence.

China and India Competing to Gain Influence in Oil-Rich Iran

Now, the two rivals are turning to oil-rich Iran, where the Asian giants are completing to gain a foothold. India and China see Tehran as a strategic gateway to boost their influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Their rivalry now focuses on the strategic Chabahar Port in southeastern Iran.

Located on the Gulf of Oman, the port serves as Iran’s only oceanic port and is close to international waters in the Indian Ocean. The seaport consists of two separate terminals, each of which has five berths built in an area of 485 hectares.

India’s 2016 MoU to Develop Chabahar Port in Iran vs. China’s 2015 Deal With Pakistan to Build Gwadar Port

In 2016, India signed a $1.6-billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran to develop the Chabahar port, which is located 1,400 kilometers from India’s commercial capital Mumbai. The MoU also included the construction of a railway line between the port city of Chabahar and Zahedan in southeastern Iran.

The agreement came months after China signed an agreement with India’s neighbor Pakistan in 2015 to develop Gwadar port, which is located only 350 km by land and 140 km by sea from the port of Chabahar.

India sees the development of the Chahabar port as an opportunity to secure connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.

India also signed a trilateral agreement with Iran and Afghanistan in 2016 for the transfer of Indian goods to Afghanistan via Chabahar port, ending New Delhi’s dependence on Pakistan’s ports.

US Withdrawal from the Iran Deal and India’s Changing Relationship With Iran

In May 2018, the United States unilaterally withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and re-imposed sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Despite the fact that Washington had agreed to a waiver for the Chabahar port and the Chabahar-Zahedan rail project, India halted its oil purchases from Iran in compliance with the US sanctions.

Angered by the Indian move, Iran moved to drop New Delhi out from the Chabahar-Zahedan railway project along the border with Afghanistan in July of this year, citing India’s delay in fulfilling its financial obligations under their agreement.

“I never thought that an independent country like India would be willing to follow the US footsteps and refuse to buy oil from us,” Iran’s First Vice President Ishaq Jahangiri said in statements that reflect Tehran’s anger over the Indian decision to halt oil purchases from Iran.

China and Iran Sign $400 Billion Strategic Partnership

One month after the move, reports emerged that energy-hungry China and Iran signed a $400-billion strategic partnership pact. According to media reports, China will invest $120 billion into transport and manufacturing infrastructure in cash-strapped Iran as part of the deal. The agreement will also allow Tehran to facilitate the infusion of about $280 billion from Beijing, which wants to buy oil from Iran.

Several reports also emerged about Chinese-Iranian talks over China’s participation in the Chahabar-Zaheden railway project as well as Beijing’s interest in taking part in the development of the Chahabar port.

India Scrambles to Respond

These reports have troubled India, leaving Indian officials scrambled to save their country’s share in the Chahabar port and keep China away from the port development project. The Indian worries were evident in the surprise visit by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh to Iran for talks with Iranian officials earlier this month. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar also made a stopover in Tehran for talks with officials there.

The visits reflected India’s growing concerns from being dropped out of the Chahabar port development and being replaced by its geopolitical rival China.

According to observers, China’s elimination of India from the Chahabar port project will be a major success to Beijing as it will mean denying New Delhi access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, something India does not want to lose.

So far, Iran did not exclude India from the Chahabar port project. On the contrary, Tehran is using this card to pressure New Delhi to ignore the US sanctions and fulfill its financial obligations in the project or risk losing its share to its geopolitical rival China.

L'articolo China, India Compete for Influence in Cash-strapped Iran proviene da InsideOver.

In March 2015, Saudi Arabia and several Sunni allies launched a massive air campaign against Iran-aligned Shiite Houthi rebels who had overrun much of Yemen a year earlier. The United States gave its full support to this campaign, which aimed at rolling back rebel military gains in Yemen.

Washington’s Support for the Saudi Coalition in Yemen

Washington provided training and logistical and intelligence support to the Saudi-led coalition as well as selling billions of dollars in weapons to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two main members of the anti-Houthi coalition.

In support of the Saudi-led war campaign, the administration of then-President Barack Obama signed off an arms sale worth $1.3 billion in precision-guided bombs and bomb parts to the Saudis and their allies.

US officials argued that American weapons, training and intelligence assistance would help the Saudis and their allies avoid causing more civilian casualties in Yemen. However actions proved otherwise.

Sharp Increase in Civilian Casualties in Yemen

Civilian casualties sharply increased in Yemen with the Saudi-led military intervention. According to an estimate from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, an independent monitoring group, more than 127,000 people have been killed in the war, including 13,500 civilians in targeted attacks by the Saudi-led coalition.

In the first 18 months of the Saudi-led campaign against Houthi rebels, human rights groups linked US bombs to attacks on homes, residential buildings, factories, warehouses, a cultural center, an agricultural complex, a primary school and other non-military sites.

US Officials May be Held Accountable for War Crimes in Yemen

According to the New York Times, concerns are now rising among US officials that they could be held accountable for war crimes in Yemen due to their role in facilitating arms sales to Saudi Arabia and its allies.

Administration officials fear that they could be arrested while on trips overseas for war crimes for ignoring the harm caused by the US weapons in Yemen.

In 2016, the legal office of the State Department in the Obama administration issued a memo warning that US officials, including the secretary of state, could be charged with war crimes for their role in arming the Saudi coalition.

Fearing accountability, the Obama administration acted on the warning and took a tougher line on the delivery of weapons to Saudi Arabia. In December of this year, Obama blocked a shipment of precision-guided bombs that he had agreed to sell to the Saudis.

Trump Resumed Obama’s Weapons Shipments to Gulf Allies

A few months after Obama left the White House, his successor Donald Trump, however, delivered the bombs his predecessor had halted. The Trump administration even sought to advance more arms sales in billions of dollars to its Gulf allies, but the shipments were blocked by the Congress for nearly two years.

As the deliveries of $8.1 billion of arms sales to members of the Saudi-led coalition were blocked pending congressional approval, the Trump administration came up with a new strategy to circumvent the Congress by declaring an emergency over Iran, which prompted a review by the inspector general.

Since April 2019, Trump has used his veto power to prevent lawmakers from withdrawing US military support and weapons sales to Saudi Arabia and its allies.

The Laws of War Still Apply

Under the laws of war, all countries are prohibited from approving arms sales in cases where these weapons can be used to commit attacks against civilians. As this is the case in the Yemen war, the possibility of holding American officials accountable for war crimes looks high.

Lawsuits can be filed against US officials for alleged war crimes in Yemen before courts in sovereign countries. The charges can also be brought in an international tribunal if one were set up to investigate atrocities in the Yemen war.

Earlier this month, the UN issued a report on atrocities in Yemen and asked the Security Council to bring actions by all parties in the conflict to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for possible war crimes prosecution.

The ICC Investigation into the US, UK and France

The ICC has already authorized an investigation into alleged war crimes committed by the US and other forces in Afghanistan in March, a move that prompted the Trump administration to blacklist ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda and her top aide.

In September 2019, a panel of UN investigators concluded in a report that the US, along with Britain and France, were likely complicit in war crimes in Yemen because of continued weapons sales and intelligence support to the Saudis and their allies.

The report said third states that have influence on Yemen’s warring parties – including the US, Britain, France and Iran – “may be held responsible for providing aid or assistance for the commission of international law violations”.

L'articolo American Officials on the Hook for War Crimes in Yemen proviene da InsideOver.